wie ich schon öfters hier in diesem Thread gepostet habe: die IEA sich binnen 10 Monate - vom sorglosen Beschwichtiger - nahezu an die vorderste Front der seriösen Warnrufer gestellt: "wir haben ein Problem"
(sehr) spät aber doch noch
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/...EA02/TPStory/Business
OIL AND GAS
IEA says world in the grips of a 'third oil shock'
Energy watchdog says no end in sight for high oil prices as rapid growth in China and India drives demand
SHAWN MCCARTHY
GLOBAL ENERGY REPORTER; With files from Reuters
July 2, 2008
OTTAWA -- The world economy is staggering under a "third oil shock" and can expect little respite from sky-high crude prices over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.
"Record oil prices in the past several months have become a threat to the global economy and the social welfare of millions of people," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the Paris-based energy watchdog, said as he released its newest five-year forecast.
But those high prices will not spur enough new supply, nor force enough reductions in demand to provide significant relief to hard-pressed consumers and businesses.
"While we have seen some weakening demand in the [developed world], supply constraints, refinery limitations and continued demand growth in key emerging markets will maintain pressure in the market over the medium term," Mr. Tanaka told a Madrid press conference.
Existing oil fields worldwide are being depleted faster than had been believed, the agency reported, and it now requires an additional 3.5 million barrels a day of new production each year just to replace that decline.
The IEA also rejected the widely held view that speculators are driving crude oil markets to new heights, though it applauded efforts by U.S. regulators to improve transparency in futures markets.
While investors have plowed some $260-billion (U.S.) into oil-related futures - up from just $15-billion five years ago - the agency said there is no evidence that that avalanche of funds caused the stunning price runup.
Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and some members of the United States Congress have blamed excessive speculation for the doubling of crude prices over the past year. But the IEA warned against a tendency to "scapegoat" speculators rather than face tough decisions.
"Blaming speculation is an easy solution which avoids taking the necessary steps to improve supply-side access and investment, or to implement measures to improve energy efficiency," the report said.
Global producers are operating full out to keep up with surging demand, and new supplies have been slower coming to market than anticipated, it said. The resulting fundamental market tightness is driving prices.
And it noted that other commodities - notably liquefied natural gas, steel and rice - have seen similar price increases, even though speculation in those markets is difficult.
Oil, which has risen in price by $44.99 or 47 per cent this year, climbed 97 cents to $140.97 yesterday.
Despite record prices, global demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.6 per cent over the next five years, with 90 per cent of that growth coming from emerging markets and 45 per cent of it in China and India alone.
The record prices are clearly having an impact on consumers in the developed world - with the steep drop in sales of sports utility vehicles in North America being the most obvious impact. As a result, demand in North America is expected to decline by an average of 0.1 per cent over the next five years - with the biggest drops this year and next.
The agency said it was assuming an average price of $110 a barrel in its forecast, and acknowledged that demand could be significantly weaker if prices remain well above that mark.
But Mr. Tanaka warned that, unlike the two oil price shocks of the 1970s, it will be far harder for consumers to cut their consumption. "The biggest energy savings have been made," he said.
Emerging markets, in contrast, will see demand growth over 3.7 per cent on average over the next five years, with total consumption climbing to 45.8 million b/d from 38.2 million. By 2015, petroleum demand in those countries will surpass that of the richer countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the IEA forecasts.
On the supply side, the IEA said it has revised downward its forecast for both non-OPEC supply and additional OPEC capacity, because of project delays and accelerated declines in existing fields.
"Our findings highlight the need for sustained, and indeed increased, investment both upstream and downstream to assure the market is adequately supplied," Mr. Tanaka said.
Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow a mere 2.3 per cent in total over the five years to 51 million b/d, with virtually all of that growth coming from biofuels and natural gas liquids.
Major projects under development - including Jack in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Brazil's Tupi offshore field and Kazakhstan's Kashagan - are all expected to come on stream after 2013.
In total, the average rate of supply expansion drops off from between 1.5 million and 2.5 million b/d in the next few years, to a mere one million b/d in 2011 and 2012.
Supply growth is constrained by the increasing cost and complexity of new developments, with project delays of up to a year and 100-per-cent cost increases common.
"With little sign of engineering and labour bottlenecks easing for the medium term, higher oil company revenues via higher prices will continue to be offset by high costs," The IEA said. "Project delays, coupled with mature field declines and unscheduled outages, will continue to be a drag on capacity growth for the foreseeable future."
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