Aus einem US-Board:
Why Own PTSC?
Facts:
1) PTSC owns 50% of the Patents (TPL owns the other 50%)
2) $260 billion industry (some argue more)
2) Royalties - unknown but assume a conservative 1%
- Admittedly PTSC may not sign every infringer but at the same time they are going to get a ton of cash from some others (i.e. RIMM and NTP - settlement $612.5 million).
Intel, AMD, HP, Casio, and Fujitsu have already singed agreements.
There are at least 150 companies infringing on their technology, but probably more.
4) Shares Outstanding - 400,000,000 w/ dilution
Formula:
2,600,000,000 (1% of the $260 billion industry)
Divide by 2 (PTSC gets half after splitting it with TPL)
= 1,300,000,000 (minimal expenses, mean it's basically all profit)
Divide by 400,000,000 (amount of shares w/ dilution)
= 3.25 per share
Multiply P/E of 20
$65/share
Why do I choose 20 for the P/E. The big positive cash flow companies that are mature MSFT, CSCO, YHOO, etc. hover a little over a multiple of 20. Realistically on its way up PTSC could easily justify a P/E of 100 or more because their revenue growth is explosive unlike the more mature companies. Over time the P/E would taper down. Even at a lousy P/E of 8, I come up with over $25/share. That doesn't factor in the fact that PTSC could actually make way more than my example of 1.3 billion dollars in royalties (again RIMM vs NTP settled for $612.5 million and that?s only 1 darn company). At some point, probability says that at least few of these infringers will be paying RIMM type settlements.
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