Wednesday 18(th) May 2011
7.00am
Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings plc (IL&PGH) issues the following update on the group's business. A conference call for analysts will be hosted by management at 9.00am today, the details of which are set out at the end of this statement.
The Group's Annual General Meeting takes place today at 11.30am in the RDS in Dublin.
Group Overview
While we believe the worst of the recession appears to be over in Ireland, the recovery in 2011 is expected to be modest with continued weakness in domestic demand and consumer sentiment being partially offset by a strong export sector performance. Residential property prices continue to decline. Although the unemployment rate is showing signs of stabilising, employment is expected to continue to fall in 2011.
The life and investment management businesses are performing broadly in line with expectations although the impact of budgetary changes on customers' disposable incomes has contributed to weaker persistency experience in the Retail Life business. The acquisition of the INBS deposit balances in February has been positive for the Group's banking business but funding conditions continue to be challenging. Arrears on the bank's Irish residential book continue to increase while new mortgage demand has been very subdued year to date.
During the period, the PCAR / PLAR exercises were completed by the Central Bank of Ireland and the results announced in March, which determined an additional EUR4.0bn capital requirement for the Group.
Life assurance & fund management
New business
Overall sales (annual premium equivalent basis) of life assurance and investment products YTD are running 20% ahead of the corresponding period in 2010 and broadly in line with expectations. ILIM continues to record strong institutional inflows and the life business is seeing strong growth in single premium sales - up 20% (excluding Irish Life International) - but recurring premiums were down 21%. Retail sales are in line with target and ahead of April 2010 levels. Corporate sales are behind expectations because of lower bulk annuity activity as schemes wait for new minimum funding standards rules.
In-force
Risk and expense experience for the first quarter of the year has been in line with expectations. Persistency experience in the Corporate life division was also in line with expectations following the changes made to lapse assumptions in the Corporate life division at the end of 2010. However, lapse experience in the Retail life division in the first quarter of 2011 was ten percentage points ahead of Q1 2010 experience reflecting reduced household incomes and continuing weak business conditions in the domestic economy.
Life costs
Operating costs are running in-line with budget in the life assurance and fund management businesses. A further cost reduction programme is underway in 2011.
Pension levy
The Government announced this month its intention to apply a pension levy of 0.6% on private pension funds and it is expected to raise c. EUR1.9bn over a four year period.
Capital
As part of its capital management, the life company has repaid the loan of EUR100m secured on its in-force book, which it had raised and drawn down in 2010. A dividend of EUR143m will be paid by the life company (Irish Life Assurance plc) to the bank in May 2011.
Banking
Funding
The bank continues to focus on developing its retail deposit base. Retail deposits were c. EUR13.3bn at the end of April (Dec 2010: EUR11.1bn), the increase reflects the addition of the Irish Nationwide Building Society (INBS) deposit book in February 2011. However, as expected there has been some attrition on the business transferred (circa EUR0.3bn) year to date. Existing permanent tsb retail deposit book balances have otherwise been broadly stable in a very competitive market while current account balances have declined slightly.
PTSB's corporate deposits were EUR3.3bn at the end of April, including the INBS corporate deposits acquired in February 2011. These deposit levels reflect outflows following further sovereign and bank ratings downgrades this year (Dec 2010: EUR3.7bn). As at 30 April 2011 the Group remains unable to access the term debt markets and permanent tsb had ECB drawings of EUR13.1bn (Dec 2010: EUR13.8bn).
Net interest income
Net interest income is broadly in-line with 2010 year to date. The net interest margin before guarantee costs is currently running slightly ahead of the 2010 level (FY 2010: 86bps). Given the funding mix and the application of higher ELG charges, the government guarantee costs in 2011 are running significantly ahead of the prior year.
Lending
Lending demand in permanent tsb's home mortgages and consumer finance continues to be extremely weak and new advances for Q1 were approximately 40% lower than in Q1 2010.
Credit quality
Arrears in the Irish residential and commercial mortgage books continue to rise in 2011. The Irish residential mortgage arrears cases (over 90 days) increased by 17% to 13,500 at the end of April. Early arrears (under 90 days) cases have risen from 4,800 cases at Dec 2010 to just over 5,000 cases at end April 2011.
Consumer finance arrears are stable and our UK mortgage book continues to trend downwards, comparing favourably at end March 2011 (1.94%) to the industry CML +3 month arrears cases (2.44%).
Loan impairment provisions
Based on trends to date and current assumptions, loan impairment provisions are expected to be broadly in-line with the 2010 level (FY 2010 actual EUR420m). As outlined in our March PCAR / PLAR presentation, the total impairments over the next 3 years based on the PCAR base case scenario will be EUR1.2bn, of which circa EUR620m would occur in the full year 2011.
Bank costs
Total costs, excluding restructuring costs, are running in line with expectations. A further phase of restructuring is being undertaken in relation to both the acquired INBS business and the existing PTSB banking operations.
Capital
The Central Bank of Ireland completed its PCAR / PLAR review of the bank in March 2011. This exercise determined a gross capital requirement of some EUR4.0bn for the Group in order to meet the requirements of (i) a target core equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 6% in a stress case scenario and (ii) de-leveraging the bank's balance sheet in order to achieve a Loan to Deposit Ratio of approximately 122% by December 2013.
The Group intends to meet its increased capital requirement through an asset disposal programme, undertaking a liability management exercise in relation to its Tier 2 debt and through the issue of additional capital to the Irish State.
Work has commenced on the first steps of the de-leveraging plans in relation to the bank's UK residential loan book and Irish commercial book.
The first phase of the liability management exercise commenced in the last week with EUR320m of upper Tier 2 debt bought back in a bilateral transaction generating over EUR290m of Tier 1 equity.
Preparation work for the restructuring of the Group is ongoing and a further update will be provided in due course.
(Full details and results for the Group of the PCAR / PLAR review that was announced on 31 March can be found on our website at:
http://www.irishlifepermanent.ie/...or-relations/financial-analysis/p car-plar-results.aspx).
The Group's Interim results announcement date is scheduled for 31(st) August 2011.
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