(siehe unten, fett)
Würde es wirklich 6 % Zinsen auf den Dollar geben - das klingt nach viel, ist historisch aber eher Durchschnitt - , hätte der Euro vermutlich wenig Chancen, wieder über 1,20 zu kommen: Selbst wenn die EBZ noch zwei Mal 0,25 % nachlegt, beliefe sich die Zinsdifferenz dann auf 3,25 %.
Geht man davon aus, dass die Inflation in USA und Euroland etwa gleich groß ist, kann man es auch so sehen: In Euroland gibt es KEINE Realzinsen, weil die Zinsen gerade mal die Inflation ausgleichen. In USA hingegen gibt es den Inflationsausgleich - und dazu noch 3 % obendrauf. Das macht den Dollar als Anlagewährung attraktiver - und lädt geradezu ein zu "Carry-Trades": Billige Kredite in Euro aufnehmen und das Geld in hochverzinste Dollars stecken.
Lange Zeit haben Hedgefonds genau das Gegenteil gemacht. Sie haben bei 1 % Tiefstzinsen Kredite in Dollar aufgenommen und das Geld in Hochzinswährungen angelegt. Nur dadurch konnte der Dollar letztes Jahr so weit fallen. Diese Carry-Trades (zu Lasten des Dollars) müssen bei den hohen Dollarzinsen nun alle rückabgewickelt werden. Bestimmt gibt es immer noch einige, die auf die Wende bei EUR/USD hoffen. Ich weiß z. B. nicht, ob Warren Buffett, der bei 1,35 short Dollar ging, noch auf ein Trendwende bei EUR/USD hofft - er ist ja "Langfristanleger" ;-)) - oder ob er schon vor dem starken Dollar kapituliert hat.
Die Erfahrung zeigt indes: Auch die Beinharten covern irgendwann - mit Pech erst bei EUR/USD = 0,90.
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ECONOMIC REPORT
Fed back in focus
FOMC minutes, jobs report top week's headlines
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:01 AM ET Dec. 31, 2005
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Blissful fixed-income markets could be in for a rude, post-holiday awakening from the coming week's economic data.
The reports - and the release of the minutes to the Dec. 13 Federal Reserve meeting -- could put the kibosh on any ideas that the Fed is nearly done tightening.
The three-week rally in the bond market -- which dropped the yield on the 10-year note from 4.55% to 4.37% -- was based on the belief that the Fed would quickly wrap up its rate hikes as the economy slows and inflationary pressures ease.
The release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting could show policymakers remain much more concerned that above-trend growth continues to fuel the furnace of inflation. The minutes will be released by the Fed on Tuesday at 2 p.m.
The minutes provide more information about the level of discussion and disagreement among the FOMC members at the closed-door meeting.
"The U.S. fixed income markets may get off to a bumpy start in 2006," said Bill Dudley, an economist for Goldman Sachs. "The risks are very much on the high side that [the minutes] will be perceived as hawkish."
The expected strong employment report and Institute for Supply Management index could also help force a re-evaluation of the view that the Fed will be done in March.
Recall that on Dec. 13 the FOMC raised interest rates for a record-shattering 13th straight meeting, putting the federal funds rate at 4.25%. The surprise came in the post-meeting statement, which was altered significantly for the first time in nearly two years to remove the word "accommodative" as a description of policy. See full story.
The new statement solidified thinking in the market that the Fed would stop after two more rate hikes; in other words, at 4.75%.
But many economists believe the Fed will keep going, to at least 5% and perhaps to 6%.
In the minutes, "the Fed will want to be especially careful about conveying the impression that it has any idea when the tightening cycle will end," said John Shinn, an economist for Lehman Bros.
"In our view, Fed officials are probably at least as nervous about the inflation outlook as a few months ago," Dudley said. While the backward-looking measures of core inflation show little to be concerned about, forward-looking indicators show that the economy is running out of the excess capacity that's kept prices down.
The December employment data, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m., could further erode the case for Fed restraint. Economists are fairly uniform in their view that job growth has resumed a robust path only briefly interrupted by the hurricanes of the late summer.
Indeed, the storms' impact is likely to be favorable for employment over the next several months, boosting construction hiring as rebuilding ramps up. In addition, hundreds of thousands of people thrown out of work by the storms are beginning to drift back into the labor force.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch see payrolls growing by about 206,000 in December after a gain of 215,000 in November. They expect the jobless rate to remain at 5%. Average hourly wages are expected to climb 0.2%. See Economic Calendar.
All signs point to a healthy job market in December. The number of people receiving unemployment checks fell by about 80,000. A rising number of consumers reported jobs were plentiful. The employment index of the ISM's nonmanufacturing survey rose to a four-month high. The help wanted index rose.
The strength of the labor market is a chief concern of Fed policymakers. While millions of Americans remain out of work, labor shortages are developing in certain geographic regions and in certain occupations. Tight labor markets mean bosses must pay workers more.
And that could lead to an inflationary spiral, as higher wages beget higher prices.
After languishing for years, average hourly wages have been on the rise in recent months, including an 18-year high 0.6% gain in October. In the past 12 months, average pay is up 3.2%, the biggest increase since March 2003.
But a 3.2% rise in nominal wages isn't an inflationary force. Consumer prices are up 3.5% in the past year, so real earnings are down. Inflation-adjusted wages aren't any higher now than they were in November 2001, the last month of the last recession.
"Productivity growth has held up well, so unit labor costs have remained soft," said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse First Boston. "Against that backdrop, the inflation threat remains muted in our view. But signs of tightening labor markets are still likely to elicit further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve."
It's not just labor markets that have Fed policymakers watchful. Slack in the industrial economy is also fading.
Despite the woes of the auto sector, the U.S. factory sector is experiencing a lengthy and powerful resurgence. The ISM index, one of the most reliable real-time economic indicators, has been over the break-even 50% mark for 29 months, the longest stretch since the late 1980s.
In December, the ISM index probably faded only slightly to 57.6% from 58.1% in November, economists surveyed by MarketWatch say. The index will be reported on Tuesday at 10 a.m.
The factory sector "is still expanding at a very good clip, driven by lean inventories and strong demand for technology, aircraft, machinery and other capital goods," said Brian Bethune, an economist for Global Insight.
Bethune said supplier deliveries should improve in December, which would be good news for the Fed, which worries about bottlenecks pushing up prices. Orders are likely to pull back, he said.
The Fed will also be watching the prices paid index, which dropped to 74% in November from 84% in October.
The ISM and jobs report aren't the only important data that will come to the Fed's attention before the Jan. 31 meeting. Policymakers and markets will be examining other releases for signs of inflation, consumer fatigue, and slowing in the housing market.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
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