.....operieren,mimba ;-)))))))))))
Dein Artikel stammt vom 15.09.2005
........Bei den heutigen hohen Rohstoffpreisen würde die Panguna Mine jährlich zirka 600 Millionen Euro Umsatz schaffen.
166.000 Tonnen Kupfer X 5659 = 939,39 Mio USD =692 Mio ?
447000 oz Gold x 876 USD = 391,57 Mio USD = 288,50 Mio ?
+ Silber u. Molybdän dazu macht schon mal locker einen Umsatz von über 1 Milliarde.
........Die Kapitalkosten wären hoch, lege man die Restrukturierungsgelder als Kredite um
Wie in 4891 schon geschrieben gibt es schon Gespräche mit dem finanziellen Arm der Weltbank.(Hancocks Antwort auf unsere Anfrage wurde positiv beantwortet,eine Kopie dieser Antwort findest du als PDF Anhang auf UVS)
Hier sind die AKTUELLEN Zahlen,(4 Oktober 2008), welche heute beim "JSB meeting between the National Government and ABG." zur Diskussion zum neuen BCA (Bougainville Copper Agreement) zur Debatte stehen.
.........Ausgaben für Soziales und Royalties dürften einiges aufzehren.
die Ausgaben für Soziales werden vom ABG übernommen,man hat sich beim letzten ABG Treffen in Alotau am 1 April mit PNG über die Aufteilung des Steueraufkommens geeinigt.(Siehe unten:Steuern)
als Verhandlungsbasis für die Royaltys verlangen die Landowners 3,5%, wohlverstanden vom Gewinn,nicht vom Umsatz,werden sich aber wohl mit 1,5-2 zufriedengeben (früher 0,002)
.......Bei 40 Cent kaufen und bei einem Aussi-Dollar verkaufen, könnte in den nächsten Jahren die Formel sein.
Da hat er recht,das war seit 05 sogar schon mehrmals möglich und ist es immer noch;-)))))))))))))))))))))))
Dazu muss man aber auch noch wissen dass der "Profi" Siegel den "Altaktionären" geraten hatte ihre Bestände bei 0,35 ? zu verkaufen und in seine xy???? umzuschichten. Das war bevor BOC über 1 ? stieg.Sowas finde ich einfach unseriös. ;-((((((((((
Zwischenzeitlich ist Siegel übrigens auch vom PEH Fonds gefeuert worden.;-))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Aber lies dir einfach mal die untenstehenden Zahlen durch.
Here is the attachment:
SUMMARY OF SALIENT POINTS FOR SUPPLEMENTAL BCA AGREEMENT
October 4, 2008
Gold USD 833 per troy ounce, Copper USD 2.69 per pound; K1=USD 0.41; K1=AUD 0.52; AUD1= 0.78 USD. Interest rate 10%
Three streams of ongoing sustainable cashflow from BCL and their proposed beneficiaries:
Taxes: Approx K 666 million per annum split 50:50 between ABG and National Govt about K 333 million per annum to each.
Dividends on 76.4 Million shares: Beneficiaries to be split 50:50 between 50% for all adult Bougainvilleans, and the remaining 50% for Landowners. Quarterly dividend payments to them to be managed jointly by the National Govt and ABG. The ownership of shares to be held in trust by the ABG and BCL. The dividend stream is K 198 million per annum or K 99 million to all adult Bougainvilleans and K 99 million to Landowners.
Royalties: 3.5% of revenue attributable to mining area to be mapped and paid out to individual title holders on a monthly basis. Annual royalties of K 125 million per annum or K 24,900 per annum; this is about K 2,077 per adult landowner per month. No dividend withholding tax will be applicable on dividends paid on BCL shares.
Non Recurring one-off payment: At the time of signing of the New BCA BCL will pay Landowners payable to them since 1990 of K1.4 million per annum plus interest plus expenses incurred.
THE OPPORTUNITY PRESENTED BY BCL AS A GOING CONCERN
I. Root Cause of the Problem
The root cause of the problem was the unfair distribution of income amongst the three main interest groups viz Landowners, North Solomon Provincial Government and the National Government. During its 17 years of life from 1972 to 1989, 58.4% of benefits received from the mine went to the National Government, and only 4.8% to the Provincial Government with merely 0.2% going to Landowners. The remaining 36.6% went to Non Government shareholders for their risk capital, technology and management; that was quite fair.
II. 1987 Production and Prices
In 1987 when there was no Additional Profits Tax, when average copper price was US 81 cents per pound and gold price was USD 446.7 per troy ounce, the Earnings per share were 24.83 USc (Earnings of USD 99.55 Million). Total concentrate produced was 585,500 Tonnes grading 30.4% Copper, and 25.1 grams per tonne of gold. This corresponds to 177,992 Tonnes of copper or 392 Million pounds worth USD 318 Million at US 81 c per pound plus 585,500 x 25.8/31.1 = 485,720 troy ounces worth USD 217 Million. Total sales of USD535 million per annum and net profit of about USD100 million per annum.
III. Assumptions
1) Current price of copper at USD 2.69 per pound and gold at USD 833 per troy ounce.
2) A capital investment of USD 1,500 Million which will be made wholly via non-recourse loans or non-voting preference shares by BCL at an interest rate of 10% per annum, with loan repayment in about 8 years of USD 273 Million per annum. In Year 1 the interest cost would be USD150 Million. The loan of USD 1500 Million would be fully repaid in eight years from profits.
3) No new ordinary voting shares will be issued by BCL. (This will help in maximizing the value of shares as well as Dividends received by the National Government, ABG and Landowners).
4) To allow for carried forward tax losses to be used fully and to encourage BCL to speedily invest a larger amount of capital (which will help Landowners to earn more royalty and the ABG/National Government to earn more from dividends and taxes) offer BCL a tax free status for first two years of full production viz 2011 and 2012. There shall be no dividend withholding tax.
5) A tax rate of 30% will apply from 2011. (It will take BCL at least 2 years to get into production so this tax concession will be available for only 3 years during which time they would anyway utilize their carried forward tax losses). This tax will be split equally and paid directly by BCL to the ABG and the National Government
6) Current exchange rate of K1 equals US 41 cents and Aus 52 cents.
7) Landowners will get royalty at 3.5% of sales per annum. This is higher than the rate of 2% provided in the Mining Act. As a quid pro quo there shall be no dividend withholding tax paid on shares of Bougainville Copper, which will also be beneficial to landowners as shareholders of BOC. The dividend withholding tax rate is currently 10%
III. Valuation of Shares, Taxation & Royalty as a going concern
If we assume the same level of production as in 1987 and the current price of copper at
USD 2.69 per pound and gold at USD 833 per troy ounce the extra sales will be
392 Million pounds x [2.69 -0.81] = USD 737 Million
485,720 x [ 833 ? 446.7] = USD 188 Million
Incremental Sales = USD 737 + 188 = USD 925 Million
Total Sales per annum = 535 + 925 = USD 1,460 Million
Royalty
It is proposed to pay a royalty of 3.5% of sales to landowners
This will be USD 51.1 Million or K 125 Million per annum
If we assume there are 5000 adult descendents of the original 510 titleholders, this corresponds to K 24,900 per annum or K 2,077 gross per adult landowner per month.
Royalties must be 3.5% Special Mining Lease Title landowners only; no sharing with ABG who are separately getting generous revenue from taxation (not available to Landowners). These shall be split 70% to individual title holders and 30% to a Future Generation Fund or Non Renewable Resources Fund. Should this split occur monthly payment to individual landowners will be 0.7 x 2077 = K1,454 net per month.
Income Tax
Income Tax in 1987 = USD 55.7 Million
Interest Cost in Year 1 = USD150 Million ( 10% interest rate on US$1.5 Billion)
Incremental Tax = 0.3 x [925 ? 150 - 51 ] = USD 217.2 Million
Tax per annum = 55.7 + 217.2 = USD 272.9 Million = K666 Million
Earnings per share
Incremental Profit After Tax = 0.7 x [925-150-51]= USD 507 Million
Total Profit After Tax = 100 +507 = USD 607 Million
Incremental Eps = USD1.26
Total Earnings per share = USD1.51 per share
Dividends per share
The loan of US$1.5 Billion will be fully repaid in 8 years. Let us assume a dividend payout ratio of 70%
Dividends per share in first 6 years while loan is being repaid = USD 1.06 or $A 1.36 or K 2.59
Dividends on 76.43 Million shares = K 198 Million per annum
Valuation of shares Copper prices have increased from 81 US cents a pound in 1988 to about US 2.69 cents a pound and if the mine were running at the pre-89 capacity, earnings per share would be about 6 times the then eps of 25 US cents a share. In the late eighties the shares hit a high of $A7.20; on a similar valuation basis the shares could hit a high of $7.20 times 9.6 or $A43.20.
On a more conservative P/E multiple of 12, the shares should be valued at USD 18.12 or AUD 23.23 provided no new shares are issued. This corresponds to K 44.20 per share
The 76.43 Million shares would be valued at K 3,378 Million. Hard facts requiring negotiation and distribution predominantly for Bougainvilleans:
Shares with an intrinsic value K 3.4 billion plus Annual Income available to Bougainvilleans of K 666+198+125= 989 Million per annum or about K 2.7 million per day comprising:
- Annual Tax of some K 666 Million; shared equally with PNG Govt
- Annual Dividends worth K 198 Million
- Annual Royalty to landowners worth K 125 Million
If we assume there are 80,000 adult Bougainvilleans and the dividends are distributed equally amongst them , each adult Bougainvillean will receive about K 1,238 per year. This is apart from the tax of K333 million which the ABG will get as its share of tax.
Kina Values 1988 figures are actual, NEW BCA 2008
If taxes are shared 50:50 between National Govt and ABG/Bougainvilleans
And if dividends from shares are paid equally among all distributed in the ratio of 1/2:1/2 for Bougainvilleans: Landowners
The mine life based on proven reserves is 14 years. But if the moratorium on exploration is lifted, the mine life will extend to about 30 years. Also, that will provide greater benefits of royalty to the new landowners in whose leases those areas exist.
There is a big quantum leap in benefits for Bougainville:
New BCA provides ABG/Bougainville income from dividends and taxation of about K333 Million p.a, from 2011 (and an equal amount of K 333 million p.a. to the National Govt) ; this is a whopping increase from merely K5.5 Million received per annum in the pre 1988 era.
New BCA provides for Landowners to receive about K 125 million per annum from Royalty and K 99 Million per annum from dividends or total of K 224 Million from about 2011 compared with about K0.2 Million p.a. in the pre 1988 era
New BCA provides equity ownership by Bougainvilleans and Landowners each of some K1.7 Billion worth of shares in BCL compared with zero shares earlier.
It is obvious that this will be the biggest step forward for Bougainville in their history and all Bougainvilleans need to be united in the pursuit of this goal. The Supplemental Bougainville Copper Agreement (2008) needs to be agreed by the initiators viz Landowners together with the ABG, the National Govt and BCL. This bottom up approach will help in fast tracking development which will deliver K5 million per day of benefits from the mine.
Proposed Action Plan:
1. Joint Supervisory Board meeting between ABG and National Govt agrees that the National Govt?s 76.4 million shares will be given to Bougainvilleans and that the tax from mining will be shared equally between ABG and National Govt until such time as the autonomy vote takes place. From the National Govt?s viewpoint they will still get access to this half tax and since the autonomy vote has a deadline the longer they delay it the less the gain for the National Govt. October 2008. It will be a gesture of friendship, sacrifice and acknowledgement. For the JSB this matter should be on the top of the agenda because nothing else can produce greater benefits for Bougainville. The new BCA will take Bougainville forward on the development path by a quantum leap.
2.Landowners to have reconciliation followed by a unanimous representation. All of them to agree on this Supplemental Agreement, endorsed later in a Mining Forum Meeting. Preferred time frame October 2008.
3.Approval from majority of 4 MPs from Bougainville of 36 Members of ABG, preferred time frame end of October 2008 prior to meeting of ABG with National Govt.
4.Access to mine to be restored : unrestricted and without any fear.
- All Guns to be surrendered: Bougainville to be a GunFree Zone.
Combatants to be paid two rates : one rate for each home made gun surrendered already (the records of this exist already) another rate for automatic guns.
- Negotiations with Meekamui; removal of road blocks so more prosperity can enter. Youth Training Colleges to be established
- Aropa airport to be opened
- Arawa port to be opened
October ? December 2008
5.NEC Decision on broad issues:
- equity transfer so 50:50 sharing can take place between Bougainvilleans and Landowners of 76.4 Million shares
- tax 50:50 sharing between National Govt and ABG
- royalties to landowners 3.5% no dividend withholding tax
- fully delegated departmental tasks of Mining (MRA) and Environment
October 2008
6.BCL announces its pre-feasibility study with an Information
Memorandum on what the New BCA will mean for Bougainvilleans and landowners.
November 2008
7. New BCA to be signed as a Supplemental Agreement appended with the Old BCA preferred time frame December 2008.
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