Hier der englische Originalreport von Januar von Fundamental Research Corp. http://www.researchfrc.com/research/pdf/westhawk/...%20Jan%202009.pdf Valuation Summary Previous Revised Figure Four $0.73 $0.24 Groundhog $0.36 $0.36 Working Capital - LT Debt ($0.06) ($0.08) Bankruptcy Costs ($0.01) Value per share $1.03 $0.51 We made the following changes to our valuation: 1. Lowered our valuation on the Figure Four project from $0.73 to $0.24 per share –As the project has been idled due to the current legal situation, we have decided to take a very conservative approach and value the project solely based on the proved and probable reserve estimates (evaluated by Gustavson Associates) of its first four wells as opposed to valuing the entire field; which resulted in the drop in our valuation. 2. Included bankruptcy costs –We estimated bankruptcy costs as follows:Expected Bankruptcy Costs = Probability of Bankruptcy * Cost of Bankruptcy * Unlevered Firm Value Our estimated bankruptcy cost is $1.77 million ($0.01 per share). The table below shows a summary of the calculation.
Probability of Bankruptcy 21% Cost of Bankruptcy 25% Unlevered Firm Value $0.22 Bankruptcy Costs $0.01
1. Probability of bankruptcy - We estimate that WHE will not be able to pay off all its debts, if the value of the company’s assets is 71% below our fair value estimate. Assuming the value of its assets will not drop by 90% or more of our fair value estimate, we estimate the probability of bankruptcy as (100% - 71% - 10%)/(100% - 10%), or 21%.
2. We also made an assumption that the cost of bankruptcy is 25% of the unlevered firm value.
Rating: The lawsuit against Encana, we believe, could be a long process. The company’s U.S. subsidiary has protection from creditors in the near-term as it has filed for Chapter 11 protection. As we cannot predict the outcome of the company’s restructuring plan, we downgrade our rating to HOLD, with a fair value estimate of $0.51 per share (down from $1.03 per share). We have raised our risk rating to 5: Highly Speculative (from 4: Speculative). ----------- Mein Forum ist ;-)
|