Kursziel für Intel: 25 Dollar.
Grund für die Outperformance von Intel gegenüber AMD ist Intels kostengünstiges 65-nm-Verfahren, bei dem Intel ein Jahr Vorsprung vor AMD hat. Senkt AMD die Preise, gerät die Firma wieder in die roten Zahlen, weil die Marge wegen der im Vergleich zu Intel niedrigeren Stückzahlen so dünn ist. Außerdem kann Intel im Billigsegment mit der alten P4-Serie zu Schleuderpreisen gegen AMD zu Felde ziehen.
Intel Seen With 'Modest Advantage' Over AMD
Maya Roney, 03.28.06, 10:27 AM ET
Banc of America Securities analyst Sumit Dhanda said near-term trends are likely to favor Intel over rival Advanced Micro Devices due to the "low cost" chip manufacturer's ability to price more aggressively and thus garner incremental share in the processor market. "The importance of cost structure cannot be overstated," wrote the analyst in a research note Tuesday.
"Specifically, with Intel's transition to 65nm occurring roughly one year in advance of AMD's, its ability to contain die size in the face of a transition to higher performance, cache intensive, dual core products, should afford Intel a modest advantage as it relates to near-term trends in cost structure."
Assuming that Intel?s products improve as expected over the next several quarters, Dhanda thinks AMD will have to make some difficult choices in light of the aforementioned cost dynamic, especially if it plans to maintain its recent rate of share gain.
In the research analyst's opinion, AMD will have to either lower pricing to push products that lag from a performance perspective, or accelerate the inclusion of dual cores or other advanced features to remain competitive.
"Of course, AMD could also choose to stand pat with its current products and pricing, but we think this would open the door to a resurgence by Intel," Dhanda said.
"While we can?t profess to know which path AMD will choose, we think any of the above options pose a headwind for the company?s gross margins."
The analyst maintained a "buy" rating and $25 price target on Intel and a "neutral" rating and $34 price target on AMD.
In its coverage of semiconductors, Banc of America's top picks are Texas Instruments and Microchip Technology, both rated "buy" with respective price targets of $39 and $40. The firm's least favorite is Lattice Semiconductor, rated "sell" with a $4 price target.
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