Aixtron purpose of this thread

28.3. Berenberg Roadshow Frankfurt
29.3 Berenberg Roadshow London
30.3 Deutsche Bank Roadshow Paris

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Wolfspeed (WOLF): For Wolfspeed, Malik said that while he's still "positive" on the growth of the silicon carbide market and its move into electric vehicles, there is concern that other vehicle makers may follow Tesla's (TSLA) decision to offer low-cost models and use insulated gate bipolar transistor or hybrid-insulated gate bipolar transistor technologies.

During its recent investor day, Tesla (TSLA) said that it had discovered a way to use less silicon carbide in its vehicles.

Could we have your expert opinion on the highlighted part please? Thank you.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/...ing_alpha&utm_term=31045170.1313 

Regards
baggo-mh

 

It is only rational that over the long term all EV companies want to reduce the SiC contents to cut costs so the concern is legitimate.

This article on how Tesla might use the Hybrid Si HGBT + SiC approach mentioned by the CITI analyst:

https://www.digitimes.com.tw/col/article.asp?id=10175  

Hi all,

Q1 results are due in 2 weeks or so, so I wanted to discuss my current expectations and hear your thoughts:
Q1 has historically been a weaker Q for Aixtron but I think this is due for a change now and we will see very very strong growth rates in sales and Ebit in particular. This is purely a mathematical result from Aixtrons current guidance.
So I expect sales of around ? 129m, +45% yoy and Ebit maybe around +100% yoy given the higher revenue base and low comparables. Orders will likely also see 10-20% growth yoy, at least.

Guidance will most likely be maintained unchanged given how early we are in the year but I look for comments on SIC and Gan and Micro Led, although the latter again carries a lot of uncertainty with regards to volume scale up.
I think/hope that the discussed growth rates should give the stock another push higher with most analyst targets around 35-40?, at least the 35 I regard as very realistic and provides relatively ?safe? +15-20% upside for the stock.

Keen to hear your thoughts and expectations.

Regards!
Fel  

Very impressive what AUO is showcasing:
https://taiwan.postsen.com/business/44363/The-first-year-of-Micro-LED-mass-productionAUO-debuts-the-world%E2%80%99s-first-commercialized-Micro-LED-smart-watch.html

However the Apple Ultrawatch is rumored to have a much bigger 2,1 inch display. 

And here the link to Touch Taiwan 2023.

https://www.touchtaiwan.com/en/newsDetail.asp?serno=4270

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

I am waiting for CWL to share his thoughts, but am myself very optimistic to see a jump in the share price as the expectations of many analyst will be too low.

Agree that a guidance raise will not happen so early into the new fiscal.

My price target for the AGM is ? 35.

Best regards
baggo-mh

 

In post #1368, I wrote that Q3/22 rev missed by 55m due to export licenses.

Aixtron gave 475m rev guidance based on exchange rate of 1.2 in 2022.  Using the actual exchange rates in 2022 and the $ based sales equals 40 of the sales, the 2022 sales should have been about 510m, versus actual sales of 463m.  So Aixtron really missed the sales guidance  by about 50m in 2022 due to the export license issue.

This 50m rev. missed should be realized in 2023.  The question is how fast.  Aixtron has promised that there is no systematic export license issue in its last two C.C's.  If so, we should see the recovery of this lost rev. in Q1/23.  That is why I gave the estimate of 171m in post #1470.  If Aixtron ONLY gets  ~60% of the recovery in Q1/23, then the sales should be ~150m (post #1444).  Without it, the sales should be ~120m, just my estimates.

Only Aixtron knows the progress of the recovery from export license.  Aixtron did say in its CC that the 2023 rev. guidance includes the recovery of this "lost" 2022 rev.  

Analysten erwarten für das traditionell schwächere Q1 im Schnitt Umsätze in Höhe von 98 Millionen Euro und ein EBIT von 17,1 Millionen Euro. Daraus würde eine Marge von rund 17,4 Prozent resultieren. In den kommenden Quartalen werden jeweils deutlich höhere Umsätze und operative Gewinne erzielt. Das Schlussquartal ist in der Regel das stärkste.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...in-sicht--20330666.html 
I have no idea where Michael Schröder (he covers teh stock for some time and has it in the real money depot)  gets these analysts estimate from. Certainly not from Jeffries who have a PT of 40.

If the 100 million is the real anaylst median revenue target, then even 120 million will be fantastic news. Not to mention 129 or even 150.

Greetings
 baggo-mh

 

Ein Unternehmen in Ihrer Watchlist - AIXTRON SE - hat soeben eine neue Pressemitteilung veröffentlicht, welche jetzt bei EQS News verfügbar ist.

EQS-Media / 21.04.2023 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Herzogenrath, 21. April 2023 - AIXTRON SE (FSE: AIXA, ISIN DE000A0WMPJ6) hat von Texas Instruments (TI) den begehrten Supplier Excellence Award 2022 erhalten. Mit dieser jährlichen Auszeichnung ehrt der weltweit tätige Halbleiterhersteller Zulieferer, die bei der Lieferung von Produkten und Dienstleistungen mit ihrem Einsatz und Engagement die hohen TI-Standards für hervorragende Leistungen erfüllen.
"Für uns ist es ein großer Erfolg, von einem solchen Global Player der Halbleiterindustrie mit dieser renommierten Auszeichnung geehrt zu werden. Sie ist nicht nur Beleg für unsere innovative Technologie und unsere Produktionskapazitäten, sondern auch für unseren hervorragenden Kundenservice. AIXTRON hat seine Wurzeln in den Nischenmärkten, und mit dieser Auszeichnung erkennt TI unsere Position als bedeutender Halbleiter-Anlagenlieferant an, der in der Lage ist, die Produktion von Galliumnitrid-Leistungselektronik auch im Hochvolumen zu unterstützen. Diese Auszeichnung würdigt auch unsere langjährige Zusammenarbeit mit Texas Instruments und die hohen Erwartungen, die unsere gemeinsamen Teams an das Galliumnitrid-Materialsystem haben", sagt Dr. Felix Grawert, CEO und Präsident der AIXTRON SE.
"TI setzt auf AIXTRON, uns dabei zu helfen, unsere Kunden zu bedienen, unsere Prioritäten zu erreichen ? um letztlich ein Unternehmen zu werden, auf das wir nicht nur persönlich stolz sind, sondern wir uns auch als Nachbarn wünschen würden", sagt Rob Simpson, Vice President of Worldwide Procurement and Logistics bei Texas Instruments.
Erhalten hat AIXTRON den TI-Award für sein neues G10-GaN-System, eine MOCVD-Anlage (Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition) zur Herstellung von Leistungsbauelementen auf Basis von Galliumnitrid (GaN). Die neue Anlage liefert nicht nur beste Resultate bei Ausbeute, Uniformität, Produktivität und Kosten pro Wafer, sondern bietet auch ein völlig neues Design mit deutlich reduziertem Platzbedarf im Reinraum. Die offizielle Markteinführung der G10-GaN ist für später in diesem Jahr geplant.
Lediglich Zulieferer, die mit vorbildlichen Leistungen in den Bereichen Kosten, ökologische und soziale Verantwortung, Technologie, Reaktionsfähigkeit, Versorgungssicherheit und Qualität herausstechen, werden mit dem TI Supplier Excellence Award ausgezeichnet.

Ansprechpartner
Guido Pickert
Vice President Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
fon +49 (2407) 9030-444
e-mail g.pickert@aixtron.com
Ragah Dorenkamp
Director Corporate Communications
fon +49 (2407) 9030-1830
mobile +49 (151) 74607360
e-mail r.dorenkamp@aixtron.com 

Very Interessing news. An award for a system that is not even officially launched yet.

Reminds me of: The best is yet to come
 baggo-mh

 

Aixtron's 2022 budget rate is 1.2 ($/Eur).  Aixtron said in the C.C. that its $ based sales is about 35% of the total sales.  We can convert Aixtron's quarterly sales using the 1.2 budget rate to take out the exchange rate fluctuation effect.  Aixtron publishes its actual $/Eur rates in its quarterly reports.  

Using those data, at the constant currency rate (1.2) Aixtron's quarterly sales should be

Q1=86.8M, Q2=98.9M, Q3=83.9M, Q4=172.5M.  

Therefore the 2022 sales under the budget rate of 1.2 would have been 442.2M.  The reported sales of 463M is 21M higher due to the benefit of the stronger $.

Remember that Aixtron gave the mid point sales guidance of 475M.  So Aixtron missed its sales guidance by 33M using its own budget rate.  If it was all due to the export licenses, this 33M "lost" revenue should show up in 2023.

However, I believe the "lost" revenue should be even higher than 33M.  That is because Aixtron upgraded its 2022 order guidance without upgrading its sales guidance in 2022.  The sales guidance of 475m (midpoint) was given in Q1/22.  So it is quite possible that the sales guidance could have been upgraded had it not been because of the export licensing issue that showed up in Q3/22.  I estimate the "lost" revenue could be up to 50M.

We will find out on 4/27.  I hope that the management clarify how much of the 2023 sales would come from the lost revenue of 2022 and how does it distribute through 2023.
 

Ich werde wieder reinhören und berichten mit meinen Remarks.

Heute Abend kommen die Zahlen von Wolfspeed einem Aixtron SiC Kunden. Ich bin schon sehr gespannt und wäre nicht überrascht wenn man den Konsens erneut übertrifft:
- Wolfspeed (NYSE:WOLF) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, April 26th, after market close.
- The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.15 (-25.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $220.08M (+17.1% Y/Y).
- Over the last 2 years, WOLF has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Heute kam dann noch folgende Meldung. Bosch will US-Chiphersteller TSI Semiconductors übernehmen
https://www.zeit.de/news/2023-04/26/bosch-will-us-chipherste?

Man beabsichtigt die Produktion von Si auf SiC umzustellen. Wo dann wohl die Reaktoren herkommen???
Ich kenne da einen zuverlässigen deutschen Lieferanten.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

...ist nachbörslich gefallen. Von 52 auf 48 ? Zahlen sind noch nicht raus  

Auf der Seite von Wolfspeed sind die Zahlen raus.  

Now that Aixtron's customers have experienced delays due to the export license.  I wonder that creates an incentive for them to put in orders sooner than later.

Common sense also says that if possible Aixtron could apply for export licenses much earlier than what it did in the past to counter  the anticipated delay.

 

Hi all,

A typical Aixtron day, stock -7% after being week for some days now (in line with the sector).
Q1 orders solid at 140m, +7% yoy, implies orders have to pick up (yoy) to reach the guided range which has been confirmed today.

Sales and EBIT have been significantly below (!) my expectations, the company says that Export licences remain a drag. This is a bit of a concern for me given it is the 3rd Q in a row. Is this a structural concern linked to the Us sanctions towards China rather than a real lack of manpower in German authorities? This topic will of course be addressed on the call at 3 pm.

Nevertheless I regard the share price at 25-26? as a buying opportunity with it responding as Q2 sales and orders pick up and we realise that the overall industry will turn in H2.

Looking forward to your comments!

Regards,
Fel  

Remember that no risk, no reward in stock market.  Most sellers today were probably from fear and did not listen to the CC.  I believe the risk part is largely clarified in the CC.  I bought more.

Dr. Felix Grawert addressed most of my questions on "lost" revenue.  He correctly stated that it is "delayed" revenue, not "lost" revenue I have stated here.  I think he said 20-30m delayed revenue from 2022, and 70m delayed revenue in Q1/23.  It is not clear to me whether the 70m Q1/23 delayed revenue includes the 20-30m delayed revue of 2022 or it is additional.  It would be 70-100m delayed revenue till Q1/23, roughly in line with my estimates.

He also confirmed that Aixtron and customers are putting in export license applications way earlier than in the past  to mitigate the longer processing time.

 

Aixtron CC ? 27.04.2023

Ich fange mal mit einer persönlichen Einschätzung an. Einer, wenn nicht der beste Call von Aixtron an dem ich teilgenommen habe ? und das sind mittlerweile einige gewesen. Die Fragen wurden alle wiederholt und en Detail so gut man vorbereitet war beantwortet. Unbeantwortet blieb die Frage nach wie viele Kunden haben sie für GaN tools? ?40, 20-30 I honestly don?t know?.

Felix spricht von massively growing markets for SiC, GaN, MicroLED and supply chain issues (in general) in the past.

GaN
Market development for Epi Power tools accelerated
order intake 1/3 in q1/23
Medium voltage power and PV (solar)
Majority of order intake in Q1 from Europe
production tool G10-GaN to be introduced lateron in the year (dual wafer??)
- lower clean room footprint
- lower cost of ownership
award from Texas Instrument was mentioned
market share not declining

SiC
Market development accelerated
Will become the top selling product in 2023
The pushout from Wolfspeed will not affect the Aixtron guidance, as teher is strong demand for the tools worldwide.
Market share is increasing as the incumbents are not getting the orders from new entrants

Optoelectronics/MicroLED
- strong momentum worldwide
- overall plans unchanged
- mass transfer step not solved yet for a (cost effective) commercialization of the technology
- Felix promised news in regards to MicroLED for later in the year

Export licenses
are needed for all market except EU, US, and Japan for any tool exports for any customer. Usually applications for existing customers go quicker. There are currently 2 issues.
1.) BAFA approval takes longer due to personnel/staff issues. Aixtron has now informed all their affected customers about the delay. Clients are now submitting all the necessary documents when placing orders. Baggo remark: from own and previous experience I know that full documentation of the tool and its use as well as an import license are required. For new customers things like registration and bank documentation. Sometimes these need to be certified or even legalized.

2.) BAFA has asked Aixtron to install a level of protection so that the reactors can not be misused. That level of protection (sounded like a software to me) has been installed in Q1.

Many questions centered around this issue.
- shipments not realized in Q1 are not lost orders as they will ship in Q2 or Q3 ? not all in one quarter
- shipments not realized in Q1 total ?70 Million. > 50% of these pushed out shipments are not part of the order backlog yet.
- 40-50% of budgeted revenue in 2023 needs an export license

Order strength
Will carry into 2024 as Felix calls it ?the electrification of everything? which causes a steady and sustainable demand for tools.

Inventory level
?300 Million is equal to 65% of revenue guidance. The increase is funded by increased advance payments from customers .

Guidance raise

2 analysts asked if a raise would be possible. Using different arguments. This could be possible if:
- order intake in Q2 is equal to Q1
- export licenses for the pushed out orders will be received in Q2 and BAFA approval time normalizes during 2023
- customers do not push out orders they have placed 2023 shipment
- sufficient inventory is on hand to build the tool in normal lead time

new customer wins
SiC
- more than 10 customers.
- New entrants Tier 1 electronics and automotive clients
- Power IDM?s
- ?2 more quarters needed to give an answer on how many of the TOP 5 will use Aixtron reactors?  

GaN
- PV(solar)
- existing customers with 5-7 systems now planning and ramping for complete FABs for the production of GaN power chips

Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen das einer der teilnehmenden Analysten seine Einschätzung ändern wird.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Herr Joachim Link vom Aixtron-Vorstand hat heute Aktien im Wert von 40946,85 ? gekauft. Wenn das nicht ein gutes Zeichen ist. Ich selber werde also nicht verkaufen. Ich möchte die  Dividende haben.
 

@fel216: It is the 2nd time export licenses were mentioned. BAFA staff also needs to approve Leopard and NVA tanks shipping from NATO member States to the Ukraine, amunition & heating systems from Germany.

@CWL1: See comments on my post above what could be required to apply for an export license and prevent money laundring on the other hand. 

The way I understood the call is that 70 Million is the total pushed out from Q1. That would include any orders pushed out from Q4/22 into Q1/22.

Gruß
 baggo-mh  

 

Vielen Dank für die Zusammenfassung des Aixtron CC

Gruß
bestfuture  

Danke.
Ich bedanke mich bei CWL1 und Fel216 für deren Einsatz zur Eruierung des Marktpotentials.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Hat heute zu 24,80 - 4.000 Stück gekauft.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

The trailing 4 Q's orders to revenue ratio as of Q1/23 is 1.32.  This picture tells a lot about the strong sale growth ahead.  The q3/22, q4/22 and Q1/23 sales are abnormalities from export license.  The drops of sales will recover in the next two quarters based on the comments by Felix in the CC.  We would see a significant uptrend of trailing 4Q's sales catching up with the strong current order trend.

 

Export licenses big topic on 27.10.2022, 28.2.2023 and 27.4.2023.  

Call Transcript

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598034-aixtron-se-aixxf-q1?

Wer es nachlesen oder sich einarbeiten möchte.

Gruß
 baggo-mh