As usual many thanks for the additional background information, fel - highly appreciated! Below some random thoughts from my end as well.
In the 1Q20 report, Aixtron explained the poor revenues with the low order intake in 2Q & 3Q2019:
?Die Umsatzerlöse (?) beliefen sich auf 41,0 Mio. EUR (?) Dies ist vor allem auf den niedrigen Auftragseingang im 2. und 3. Quartal des Vorjahres zurückzuführen, der sich nun im Umsatz widerspiegelt.? (Quelle:
https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/news/...dität%20und%20Eig_n1526)Order intake development:
1Q19: 53.6m
2Q19: 44.7m
3Q19: 52.2m
4Q19: 81.4m
1Q20: 68.8m
1Q/2Q19 average: 49.2m
2Q/3Q19 average: 48.4m
3Q/4Q19 average: 66.8m
4Q19/1Q20 average: 75.1m
So quite obviously, 2Q20 should show a significantly higher revenue level assuming the same time lag of the average order intake in 3Q/4Q19 which moved up to ?66.8m from ?48.4m. On top of this, it looks like EUR/USD moved into the right direction by approx 3 big figures since 2Q/3Q19.
So, 2Q20 revenues should not only benefit from the 1Q20 catch-up you mentioned fel, but also from the higher order intake 2-3 quarters ago and the positive FX effect. All of this could point to a stellar 2Q number, right? Do I miss something here, e.g. is the 1Q20 catch-up being compensated/nullified by further postponements in 2Q (US clients) and the stellar results will only show up in 3Q?
Needless to say that good 2Q results do not necessarily mean a corresponding share price reaction ? the market also overlooked the ?poor? numbers in 1Q, i.e. the effect was well explained.
Apart from my thoughts above: in my view the real good news for Mini LED, microLED, SiC, GaN, etc. should only be expected in 2021/22. The only driver for a significant?re-rating? still in 2020 would be the potential OLED order from Samsung and difficult to assign any probability to this.
Thus, while Aixtron remains a ?feel good? investment to me given the sizeable cash position, strong secular growth drivers and the significant revenue potential in 2021/22, I am a bit concerned when taking a look at the overall market level and potential escalation between the US and China. Any views/recommendations from the crowd here?