Dow Jones: Bricht Konsolidierung - Schluß fest

Updated 10/4 for Tuesday's market.

Key DOW Levels for 10/5 UP Above 10,300 DN Below 10,150 Upside Continuation Dow breaks consolidation to upside, ends session higher. From prior commentary, "...The fact that the index has formed the tight consolidation at the highs implies a continuation higher Monday, especially if 10,200 is crossed to the upside..." The Dow opened the session with a solid upside break from the tight consolidation at 10,200 today, sparking a sharp advance, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. However, outside the first 30 minutes of trading, the index pulled back slowly the remainder of the session, saving 24 points of gain for the day. Looking at the Daily and Weekly Charts show that the index is once again approaching the upper trend line of the major downward-sloping channel. We may see further near-term strength from the Dow, but major strength will not enter the market unless the upper trend line is crossed at 10,300. An upside break through this level will likely set up a major rally in the market in a longer term horizon. If the Dow continues to hold beneath 10,300, look for the index to remain strong above 10,150. A break below this level will indicate another decline. Short Term Dow Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 10,210 and 10,223. Watch for a break from this range for short term direction at the Open. Medium Term Dow In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 10,261, but stopped out on the day's reversal. We are out of the market, and will watch 10,300 up, and 10,150 down; using 20 point stops. NASDAQ & S&P The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed higher to open the session, but pulled back late in the day. Look for continued strength above today's short term support levels; otherwise, a break of these levels will make for a further pull-back. * Summary The Dow closed the session higher today, after getting an upside break from the tight consolidation. However, the index pulled back late in the session, which could stall further strength. Look for continued overall strength above 10,150 tomorrow. Otherwise, a break here will make for weakness. Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading! Ed Downs edowns@nirvsys.com with assistance from.. Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst fochoa@nirvsys.com ** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team _________________________ Rules and Definitions

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Wall Street outlook - U.S. futures higher, IBM higher on broker call 05.10.2004 12:49    Headlines


   LONDON (AFX) - U.S. stock futures were higher early Tuesday and the European
stocks were building gains, underpinning expectations the Friday rally in stocks
could have some room left.
Still underlying trading in stocks was thin, and the futures were off overnight
peaks, dealers in London noted. Crude oil prices were holding above $50 a
barrel. The Dow industrials were up 21 points to 10,228 ahead of 7 a.m. Eastern.

Hardware stocks were an expected focus after J.P. Morgan Securities overnight
raised its rating on IBM   to overweight and downgraded Hewlett-Packard Co.   to
neutral. The changes were "primarily driven by our incrementally more
constructive view on IBM's enterprise share gains and margin profile, as well as
concerns over the consumer PC and printer segments," the broker said.
H-P was marked at $18.95 in Frankfurt, down some 10 cents from its close Monday.
IBM was marked up as much as $88.05, or around 90 cents, London dealers said.
J.P. Morgan told clients it expected an "in-line September quarter" at IBM,
adding "but we have become incrementally positive on our fourth quarter and
calendar 2005 outlook." On H-P, the analysts said: "H-P's current enterprise
cost structure does not appear equipped to handle the rapid shift away from
proprietary UNIX systems toward lower margin industry standard server."
On the deal front: Japan's Toppan Printing Co. overnight said it had an
agreement to chip equipment maker DuPont Photomasks   in a deal valued at $650
million. Terms call for Photomask shareholders to receive $27 a share in cash,
setting a 48 percent premium to the Monday close in the shares.
Internet group IAC/InterActiveCorp  , the owner of Expedia, said it's decided
against making an offer for U.K. online travel company ebookers  . The shares
dropped as much as 9 percent and were last down 4 percent in London.
Overnight, Camden Property Trust   unveiled a $1.9 billion takeover, including
debt, of Summit Properties  , creating a leading owner of apartment buildings.
Camden is paying $31.37 a share, representing a near 13 percent premium to
Summit's closing share price of $27.84 Monday.
Ahead on the data front: The Challenger survey of layoffs announced in September
will offer something of a curtain raiser for the U.S. government's jobs report
on Friday. The German jobless rate inched up to 10.7 percent, government
statistics on Tuesday showed.
Focus stocks
Eastman Kodak Co.   said it will cut 870 jobs manufacturing sites in the U.K.
and France due to the "increasing popularity of digital photography." Kodak said
the actions are part of Kodak's three-year program, announced in January, to
reduce worldwide employment by 12,000 to 15,000 and to reduce total facilities
square footage by one-third.
Medarex   said the Food and Drug Administration has granted it fast-track status
on its MDX-010 drug used in combination with MDX-1379, a melanoma vaccine.
Advanced Micro Devices   was marked down 20 cents at $13.50 with around 30,000
shares traded in Frankfurt after it warned on third-quarter sales overnight.
European chipmaker STMicroelectronics   was down 0.5 percent; Dutch chip
equipment maker ASML   was little changed.
ADM said late Monday that it now expects third-quarter sales to come in below
those reported in the second quarter, citing softness in its flash memory
business.
"We believe that defined strategies to take market share by significant flash
competitors, including Intel Corp.  , have put pressure on AMD's flash
business," UBS concluded. "We expect that AMD has performed relatively better in
its MPU business, particularly in the server sector."
German sporting goods brand Adidas-Salomon   CEO Herbert Hainer at an investor
presentation said the apparel industry needs to lift prices. "Nike  , Reebok  ,
retailers, everyone, must have an interest in bringing prices up, otherwise no
one will make any money," he said. Yet Hainer sounded an upbeat tone after
hiking earnings estimates twice during the year, saying there's no reason why it
can't top its 10 percent operating margin target for 2006.
JP Morgan initiated coverage of JDS Uniphase   with an 'underweight,' telling
clients "we believe end-user demand for optical components, while relatively
stable, is not strong enough to cause a pull on the component end of the food
chain, resulting in a lack of pricing power and lackluster demand for JDSU."
Danish shipping company TORM  , which is listed on the NASDAQ, said its was
raising its profit before tax expectations to $183 million to $192 million from
$146 million to $154 million. It said the increase in expectations consists of
improved earnings of approximately $17 million and an extraordinary dividend
payment of $21 million from its stake in Danish shipping company Norden.
Morgan Stanley raised its rating on European oils stock Norsk Hydro   to
overweight from underweight and cut its ratings on France's Total   to
equal-weight from overweight and Italy's Eni   to underweight from overweight.
"European oils have outperformed the market by 9 percent year to date; beyond
the current long-term oil price adjustment, we see an increasing focus by the
market on the worrying structural transition. We expect one last, oil
price-driven lift, before the party ends," the analysts told clients.
Smith Barney Citigroup overnight upped its rating on carrier AT&T   to hold from
sell, citing the stock's dividend yield as well as management's restructuring
plans. "We expect T to soon announce a series of additional steps to try to
improve near-term value and address the persistent revenue erosion across its
operating segments," the broker told clients. Shares of AT&T rose 4.3 percent
Monday on the renewed speculation that the phone company could cut more workers
and write down the value of assets to improve profits.
This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.












Gruß Pichel  

Wall Street outlook - U.S. futures off peaks, AMD lower - UPDATE 1 05.10.2004 14:24    Headlines


   LONDON (AFX) - U.S. stock futures were higher early Tuesday and the European
stocks were holding gains, underpinning expectations the Friday rally in stocks
could have some room left.
Still underlying trading in stocks was thin, and the futures were well off
overnight peaks, dealers in London noted. Crude oil prices were holding above
$50 a barrel, likely keeping stocks in check. The Dow industrials were up 12
points to 10,219 ahead of 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Hardware stocks were an expected focus after J.P. Morgan Securities overnight
raised its rating on IBM   to overweight and downgraded Hewlett-Packard Co.   to
neutral. The changes were "primarily driven by our incrementally more
constructive view on IBM's enterprise share gains and margin profile, as well as
concerns over the consumer PC and printer segments," the broker said.
H-P was marked at $18.95 in Frankfurt, down some 10 cents from its close Monday.
IBM was marked up as much as $88.05, or around 90 cents, London dealers said.
J.P. Morgan told clients it expected an "in-line September quarter" at IBM,
adding "but we have become incrementally positive on our fourth quarter and
calendar 2005 outlook." On H-P, the analysts said: "H-P's current enterprise
cost structure does not appear equipped to handle the rapid shift away from
proprietary UNIX systems toward lower margin industry standard server."
On the deal front: Japan's Toppan Printing Co. overnight said it had an
agreement to chip equipment maker DuPont Photomasks   in a deal valued at $650
million. Terms call for Photomask shareholders to receive $27 a share in cash,
setting a 48 percent premium to the Monday close in the shares.
Internet group IAC/InterActiveCorp  , the owner of Expedia, said it's decided
against making an offer for U.K. online travel company ebookers  . The shares
dropped as much as 9 percent and were last down 4 percent in London.
Overnight, Camden Property Trust   unveiled a $1.9 billion takeover, including
debt, of Summit Properties  , creating a leading owner of apartment buildings.
Camden is paying $31.37 a share, representing a near 13 percent premium to
Summit's closing share price of $27.84 Monday.
Ahead on the data front: The Challenger survey of layoffs announced in September
will offer something of a curtain raiser for the U.S. government's jobs report
on Friday. The German jobless rate inched up to 10.7 percent, government
statistics on Tuesday showed.
Focus stocks
Netflix   rose 16 percent in the pre-open to $20.08 after boosting its
third-quarter outlook late Monday. The stock was among pre-open volume leaders.

Eastman Kodak Co.   said it will cut 870 jobs manufacturing sites in the U.K.
and France due to the "increasing popularity of digital photography." Kodak said
the actions are part of Kodak's three-year program, announced in January, to
reduce worldwide employment by 12,000 to 15,000 and to reduce total facilities
square footage by one-third.
Advanced Micro Devices   was 50 cents at $13.20 after it warned on third-quarter
sales overnight. European chipmaker STMicroelectronics   was down 0.5 percent;
Dutch chip equipment maker ASML   was little changed.
ADM said late Monday that it now expects third-quarter sales to come in below
those reported in the second quarter, citing softness in its flash memory
business.
"We believe that defined strategies to take market share by significant flash
competitors, including Intel Corp.  , have put pressure on AMD's flash
business," UBS concluded. "We expect that AMD has performed relatively better in
its MPU business, particularly in the server sector." INTC was down 0.2 percent
at $21.09.
Secure Computing   lifted its financial outlook for the third quarter, citing a
strong performance in both its federal and commercial markets. Shares rose close
to 14 percent at $9.
Geron   shares jumped almost 10 percent to $7 in pre-market action after the
company received a patent covering the growth of human embryonic stem cells,
hESC, in the absence of feeder cells.
German sporting goods brand Adidas-Salomon   CEO Herbert Hainer at an investor
presentation said the apparel industry needs to lift prices. "Nike  , Reebok  ,
retailers, everyone, must have an interest in bringing prices up, otherwise no
one will make any money," he said. Yet Hainer sounded an upbeat tone after
hiking earnings estimates twice during the year, saying there's no reason why it
can't top its 10 percent operating margin target for 2006.
JP Morgan initiated coverage of JDS Uniphase   with an 'underweight,' telling
clients "we believe end-user demand for optical components, while relatively
stable, is not strong enough to cause a pull on the component end of the food
chain, resulting in a lack of pricing power and lackluster demand for JDSU."
Danish shipping company TORM  , which is listed on the NASDAQ, said its was
raising its profit before tax expectations to $183 million to $192 million from
$146 million to $154 million. It said the increase in expectations consists of
improved earnings of approximately $17 million and an extraordinary dividend
payment of $21 million from its stake in Danish shipping company Norden.
Morgan Stanley raised its rating on European oils stock Norsk Hydro   to
overweight from underweight and cut its ratings on France's Total   to
equal-weight from overweight and Italy's Eni   to underweight from overweight.
"European oils have outperformed the market by 9 percent year to date; beyond
the current long-term oil price adjustment, we see an increasing focus by the
market on the worrying structural transition. We expect one last, oil
price-driven lift, before the party ends," the analysts told clients.
Smith Barney Citigroup overnight upped its rating on carrier AT&T   to hold from
sell, citing the stock's dividend yield as well as management's restructuring
plans. "We expect T to soon announce a series of additional steps to try to
improve near-term value and address the persistent revenue erosion across its
operating segments," the broker told clients. Shares of AT&T rose 4.3 percent
Monday on the renewed speculation that the phone company could cut more workers
and write down the value of assets to improve profits.
This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.









Gruß Pichel  

Aktien NASDAQ Ausblick: Etwas fester erwartet - AMD im Fokus 05.10.2004 14:35    Headlines


   NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - Händler rechnen am Dienstag mit einem etwas festeren
Handelsauftakt an der technologieorientierten US-Börse NASDAQ. Der Future auf
den NASDAQ-100-Index  legte zuletzt um einen Punkt zu. Trotz der
Kursgewinne seit Freitag gibt es noch Raum nach oben, sagte ein Händler.

   Das Hauptaugenmerk der Anleger werde wohl auf Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
 gerichtet sein, sagte ein Börsianer. Der US-Chiphersteller
erwartet, dass der Umsatz im soeben abgelaufenen dritten Quartal niedriger
ausgefallen ist als zunächst angekündigt. Wie der Intel-Konkurrent
am späten Montagabend mitteilte, ist aber weiterhin mit einem höheren
Gewinn zu rechnen als im zweiten Quartal. AMD-Aktien verloren vorbörslich um
2,99 Prozent auf 13,29 Dollar. Intel gaben vorbörslich um 0,14 Prozent auf 21,10

Dollar nach.

   Netflix-Aktien   gewannen im vorbörslich sehr aktiven
NASDAQ-Handel 10,14 Prozent auf 19,00 Dollar. Der Videoverleiher hatte
angekündigt, dass die Quartalsergebnisse besser ausfallen werden als derzeit im
Marktdurchschnitt erwartet wird.

   Am Montag hatte der Auswahlindex NASDAQ 100  0,42 Prozent auf
1.459,01 Punkte gewonnen. Der marktbreite NASDAQ Composite  zog um
0,53 Prozent auf 1.952,40 Zähler an./mw/ck





Gruß Pichel