Aixtron purpose of this thread

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10.01.20 16:19
13

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mhAixtron purpose of this thread

For the time being this forum is closed to keep users that do not contribute essential news around the stock, the market opportunity or messages related to it out.

Please be friendly to eachother and keep political discussions out.

Thank you
 laugthingcool baggo-mh

 
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593 Postings ausgeblendet.

03.08.20 14:42
1

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

A big thank you, CWL! Lots of interesting thoughts and aspects which help to better understand the potential situation around Samsung/OVPD ? I just hope that Aixtron does not allow to get pushed around too much by Samsung. At some point, Aixtron needs to take a stand and say ?we have a responsibility towards our shareholders and need to get a (final) decision or some other form of compensation?. If the latter were in form of cash payments, R&D take-over and/or cash investments into Apeva, I wouldn?t care :-).

Agree that getting rid of the ?OVPD headache? is easy by just selling the shares, but I rather follow your ?patient and be happy? approach. However, the investment case for Aixtron has four cornerstones in my view with i) mini-/microLED, ii) SiC, iii) 3D Sensing and iv) OVPD. We don?t know when iii) returns and iv) seems to be a loss-making never-ending story and I fear that just based on i) and ii), it is difficult to expect any significant higher share price level in the short-term.

********

Am Rande: das HB nennt Aixtron heute morgen noch mal als möglichen ?fast entry? Kandidaten für den MDAX im Rennen mit Talanx - sollte Wirecard diese Woche herausfliegen. Wäre natürlich eine schöne Nachricht, gerade weil es ? im Gegensatz zu anderen Indexänderungen ? noch einen gewissen Überraschungsmoment mit sich brächte.

Zur Erinnerung, gegen Ende Juni sah es zwischen den beiden wie folgt aus (MK/Umsatz/Summe):
Talanx // 75 // 98 // 173
Aixtron // 96 // 79 // 175

Aixtron hat Talanx im Juli um rund 2-3% outperformed, aber das wird kaum einen Einfluss auf die knapp 20 Plätze Unterschied in der MK gehabt haben (schade, dass Fr + heute nicht mehr zählen). Auf der anderen Seite war Aixtrons Handelsumsatz im Juli vllt 50% höher als in den beiden Monaten zuvor, d.h. in der Umsatz-Statistik dürfte Aixtron weitere Plätze gut gemacht haben.

Bin mal gespannt, wie das diese Woche ausgeht, also ob die Dt. Börse sagt ?MK ist für uns das wichtigste? oder ob die Meinung ist, dass das Interesse an möglichst liquiden Werten im zweitgrößten deutschen Aktienindex wichtiger ist. Außerdem würde eine Aufnahme Aixtrons der zunehmenden Wichtigkeit von Tech-Werten reflektieren, was mE auch noch für Aixtron spricht.  

03.08.20 15:47

799 Postings, 1165 Tage CWL1dlg

This is an Asian thing.  Samsung expects total loyalty, dedication and sacrifice.  That was how Tokki (VTE) and Dai Nippon Printing (FMM) won the continuous and monopoly businesses from Samsung.  As a German company,  Aixtron might not be used to this type of culture but has never deviated from the position that it is Samsung on;y for OVPD, no Chinese and no LG.  The head of APEVA is a Korean, is he?  He understands.    

03.08.20 16:57

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Thanks again, CWL. Let's keep fingers crossed that Aixtron's "loyalty" will really pay off one day.

Btw, Veco will report quarterly results tonight; according to SA, expectation is approx. 98m USD in revenues and 0.07 in EpS. Probably more interesting will be the Q&A in their earnings call.  

03.08.20 17:02
2

799 Postings, 1165 Tage CWL1The battle of next TV

http://www.yole.fr/iso_upload/News/2020/...ryUpdate_YOLE_July2020.pdf

"WOLED and QD-OLED are stop-gap technologies. BOE and CSOT are both eager to skip
WOLED and level the playing field by jumping directly to the next generation: inkjet-printed
RGB OLED or EL-QD. CSOT?s US$187 million investment in JOLED gives more credence to
its plans to build G6 and G8.5 RGB OLED fabs by 2023. If successful, this could quickly render
QD-OLED and WOLED fabs mostly obsolete
. Samsung and LG must therefore proceed with
extreme caution on their QD-OLED and WOLED investments while accelerating their own
RGB OLED and EL-QD developments.
"

The message is that if RGB OLED TV's comes out, QD-OLED TV would be dead.  RGB OLED TV can be made by ink-jet printing (JOLED) or vertical VTE (JDI, read posts # 545 and 548).  What RGB-OLED TV technology could SDC develop to defend?  SDC has got rid of Kativa so ink-jet printing cannot be its the high prority. My guess is OVPD+FMM for the next generation TV.  Let Canon Tokki's VTE which SDC has had lots of experience take care the QD-OLED TV.

 

04.08.20 09:39
4

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Der Veeco Call hat mE nicht soo viel Neuigkeitswert gehabt mit Ausnahme recht deutlicher Aussagen bezüglich deren China Geschäft. Sieht für mich nach einer klaren Bestätigung der bisherigen Annahme aus, dass Aixtron vom Handelskrieg profitieren könnte. Ob deren ca. 80 Mio USD Umsatz p.a. nun bei Aixtron landen könnten, ist natürlich noch mal eine andere Frage.


China-Geschäft
?China was 18% of overall revenue mainly from MOCVD system and service sales. We are experiencing challenges closing new orders in China due to the current trade restriction environment and have lost several orders that we were anticipating. As a result, in the near-term, we expect revenue from China customers to decrease as a percentage of our overall revenue.?

?What we are seeing, David, is when a Chinese customer has an opportunity to buy non-U.S., we are seeing them exercise that, but where they don't really have alternatives, it seems that they are continuing to buy U.S.?


MOCVD Geschäft
?In compound semiconductor markets, we continue to make investments in our MOCVD product portfolio. Our latest product, the Lumina system, deposits arsenides and phosphides and is based on our TurboDisc technology providing excellent film uniformity, yield, and low defectivity over long campaigns.

The Lumina system is designed for applications such as indium phosphide lasers for datacom and telecom, 3D sensors for facial recognition and world-facing applications, LiDAR for autonomous vehicles, and red LEDs for Micro LED displays. This system is performing well and we have received excellent feedback from our top Tier 1 customer.

Despite this, our near-term visibility remains limited especially in China where the regulatory environment is providing headwinds. Customers are weighing options between buying equipment from U.S. suppliers like Veeco or alternative non-U.S. suppliers when available.?


Margen:
?(?) as the LED and particularly the China commoditized LED business that is no longer a significant part of our business is certainly helping on the product mix and in the gross margin improvement over time.?


Quelle:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...nings-call-transcript?part=single  

04.08.20 14:03
1

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Bei Interesse:

Azur Space Chooses Aixtron System
"The NOW ORDERED fully automated AIX G5 + C system..."
Quelle: https://compoundsemiconductor.net/article/111748/...es_Aixtron_System

Auf der Aixtron/Azur Homepage konnte ich das nicht finden trotz Zitate von beiden Unternehmen.  

04.08.20 14:37

23 Postings, 205 Tage joss.beaumont.....

von nebenan:

https://www.it-times.de/news/...on-azur-space-aus-deutschland-136153/

Leider handelt es sich nur um eine Anlage vom Typ AIX G5 + C...... 

regards

Joss

 

05.08.20 11:55
4

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Bei Interesse: die neuen Ranglisten der Dt. Börse sind verfügbar und sehen für Aixtron wie folgt aus:

In MDAX included // MarketCap // Turnover // Combined
RTL // 102 // 82 // 182
Duerr // 95 // 88 // 183
Aareal // 104 // 86 // 190
Osram // 92 // 51 // 143

In SDAX included // MarketCap // Turnover // Combined
Ado Prop. // 68 // 102 // 170 (hier hilft die KE)
Talanx // 77 // 99 // 176
Hypoport // 79 // 116 // 195
Shop Apotheke // 84 // 97 // 181
Fielmann // 85 // 103 // 188
Encavis // 89 / 106 // 195
Aixtron // 91 // 80 // 171

MDAX regular entry candidate rank: 90/90
MDAX alternate candidate rank: 95/95

So richtig schlau werde ich daraus nicht, vermute aber mal, dass es ganz hilfreich wäre wenn Aixtron in diesem Monat bei der MK unter den 90er Rank rutscht ? dann könnte es etwas mit dem September werden. Ob beim vermutlichene Wirecard Ausschluss Mitte/Ende August nun Talanx, Ado Prop oder Aixtron die besten Chancen haben werden, weiß ich nicht.

Neben Wirecard könnten mögliche Absteiger Osram sein (wenn AMS weiter zukauft), aber auch RTL und Aareal Bank, auch wenn letztere gut gelaufen ist die Woche.

Das schreibt die Dt. Börse dazu:

Regular Entry: A company will be included in the selection index if it has the same or better rank than the ?candidate rank? in both the free float market capitalisation and order book volume criteria (e.g. smaller than or equal to rank 30 for the free float market capitalisation criterion and smaller than or equal to rank 30 in the order book volume criterion in the DAX® ranks). The company with the lowest free float market capitalisation that is ranked worse than the ?alternate candidate rank? in one of the criteria will be excluded (e.g. greater than 35 in one of the two criteria in the DAX® ranks). Notwithstanding the previous sentences, if no alternate candidate can be determined, no exchange takes place.

In principle, the following applies to all four rules: If there are several companies that fulfil the criteria, the best/worst candidate in terms of free float market capitalisation is included/replaced.

In exceptional cases, for example, takeovers announced at short notice or significant changes in the free float, STOXX Ltd. may deviate from rules 1?4 mentioned above (Discretionary Rule, see Section 1.3).

Quelle: https://www.dax-indices.com/document/Resources/..._Equity_Indices.pdf  

05.08.20 21:05
3

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mhMDAX

Thanks dlg.

I have done the same analysis and something just struck me when I read your post.

Wirecard will be replaced by Delivery Hero  or  Healtheneers both listed in the MDAX. Wirecard will not be listed in the MDAX (I assume) so the ranking of Aixtron will improve by 1.

New Marketcap ranking based on July numbers will then be 90 and 79 for 12 average Turnover. Has it been decided yet if Wirecard will be kicked out mid August or only on the regular review date in September?

MDAX here we come!

Cheers laugthingcool
baggo-mh

 

06.08.20 16:02
1

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Thanks for your feedback, baggo, and welcome back!

Re/ MDAX a couple of comments on your posting:

1) We shouldn?t overestimate the impact of a potential MDAX inclusion. Duerr & RTL Group just have an index weighting of some 0.4%, i.e. assuming 5/10bn of passive funds tracking the MDAX would result in a 20/40 million Euro demand in Aixtron shares, maybe 2-3 daily trading turnovers. At least that?s my understanding, happy to hear further thoughts on this.

On ther other hand, I remember during the AMS/Osram takeover that it was said that Osram (MDAX as well) had 10-15% of passive funds as investors. Also recall that Dialog Semi shares got hammered in March when they unexpectedly were kicked out of the MDAX as a result of Brexit. But difficult to judge how much was Covid and how much was due to leaving the MDAX.

2) Wirecard is not listed under the Top 100 in the market cap ranking per August, i.e. if Wirecard is taken out of the DAX, it doesn?t automatically mean that Aixtron will move up one rank.

3) Understand the safest way for an inclusion in September is if Aixtron shows <90/90 per end of August while one of the MDAX members shows >95/95.

4) Haven't completely understood if Aixtron could also be included if conditions in 3) are not met, but if Aixtron is better than a competitor in both categories. E.g. Aixtron 91/81 and a competitor is 95/85 - does Aixtron get included then?

5) Is there maybe a discretionary decison by Dt. Börse in relation to Osram? AMS holds 71% of Osram and announced that it will continue to buy shares in the market and to aim for a squeeze out by year-end. Dt. Börse might be inclined to remove Osram before having this index zombie for a while (or to avoid a fast exit in 4Q20/1Q21).

6) Wirecard index news only after 13 August it seems: https://boerse.ard.de/aktien/...ung-fuer-index-zugehoerigkeit100.html


Re/ share price performance: in my view the EUR/USD development since May (from 1.08 to 1.19) justifies some 5-10% of the share price decline. In 2019, only 40 out of 260m Euro revenues were recognized in Europe, while most of the cost base should be in Euro. Thus, the 11 'big figures' are a clear negative even if current spot is still below Aixtron's budget rate.  

06.08.20 23:25
4

1339 Postings, 4968 Tage rosskataPlayNitrid erweitert uLED Produktion

Ich glaube es stand schon vor einigen Wochen, dass PN die Produktion erweitern will, aber jetzt ist es wohl auch finanziert:
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20200806PD210.html
Zweite Produktionslinie hoffentlich wieder mit Aixtron Maschienen.  Eigentlich sollte es fast sicher sein.  

11.08.20 09:01

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mhsorry

@ dlg.: I overlooked the fact that Wirecard was no longer listed under the top 100.

Good points stated under 3.) and 4.)  and the one on the exchange rate.

Regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

11.08.20 09:43
1

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mh@CWL1

Hi

in a recent Universal Display CC a lot of questions centered around this paper presented at Display week.

Late-News Paper: Realizing Deep Blue Emission in Blue Phosphorescent Organic Light- Emitting Diodes
Jinwon Sun, Samsung Display, Co., Ltd., Yongin, South Korea

Have you read about it or seen a presentation?

From the Universal CC

On the blue front, we continue to make excellent progress in our ongoing development work for our commercial phosphorescent blue emissive system.

Also at Display Week, Samsung Display presented a paper titled "Realizing deep blue emission in blue phosphorescent organic light emitting diodes," which acknowledged that the experimental blue work was performed using a phosphorescent dopant material provided by Universal Display Corporation.

Shannon Cross -- Cross Research -- Analyst

Okay. And then I'll just throw this out because nobody's asked about blue yet. And Steve, you did discuss it a bit on the call. Just any more thoughts, any incremental thoughts on blue? Or how we should think about development there beyond what you said on the call?

Sidney D. Rosenblatt -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Secretary and Director

Well, in terms of blue, as Steve said, we're making excellent progress. And he did mention that there was a paper presented at SID regarding R&D by Samsung on using blue phosphorescent emitter. So we're excited about the progress that we've made, and we're excited about the paper that was presented at SID.

Jim Ricchiuti -- Needham & Company -- Analyst

Okay. And then just regarding the paper that Samsung gave at the SID conference. Typically, when these papers are given, I would assume, and this is probably not the first, that you guys have some input in papers like this. Is that fair to say?

Sidney D. Rosenblatt -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Secretary and Director

Well, this is a Samsung paper. And what they were doing is looking at phosphorescent blue. And essentially, literally talking about that you need a deep blue phosphorescent emitter to get the best display and the most power-efficient display. And it's an R&D project, and we don't talk specifically about R&D projects with our customers. But this is the first time that anybody has really presented anything like this and acknowledged the fact that it used our blue emissive material.  

Do you think they might test this new material on the OVPD R&D system of Aixtron?
That would explain the unexpected delays.

Regards
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

11.08.20 13:53

799 Postings, 1165 Tage CWL1@baggo

welcome back!  

I listened to the CC too.  I agree that Samsung would be testing the new blue with OVPD.  It is getting late for OVPD to get in the QD-OLED project.  The Korean press has reported that a GEN 8.5 Canon Tokki system was moved in July.  

13.08.20 10:08

23 Postings, 205 Tage joss.beaumontdlg,

dann hat IHP Micoelectronics de facto ein Veeco MOCVD-System bestellt. Wäre AIX auch in der Lge gewesen, hier als Lieferant in Erscheinung zum treten?

Wenn ja, warum entscheidet sich eine Firma IHP - mit Sitz in Frankfurt - für ein Veeco System?

Für mich so nicht nachvollziehbar. Anyway. Ein Großteil der AIX-Kunden befindet sich in Asien. Dennoch hat der Vorgang einen nicht sooooo tollen Beigeschmack...

à plus

Joss

 

13.08.20 10:41

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Joss, bonjour! Ja, das war auch mein Gedanke, dass so etwas auch von Aixtron vor der Haustür hätte kommen können ? aber technisch bin ich zu weit weg um das richtig einschätzen zu können. Ich habe auch mal gelesen, dass zB AMS auf Aixtron setzt, während Osram auf Veeco setzt (vllt ändert deren Merger etwas?).


Die neue MDAX-Zusammensetzung kommt am 19. August nach 22 Uhr:
https://deutsche-boerse.com/dbg-de/media/...AX-Auswahlindizes-2147466


Schaut mal hier?ein gefundenes Fressen für das andere Forum, oder? :-)
https://www.dgap.de/dgap/News/corporate/...-relations/?newsID=1386963  

13.08.20 12:25

23 Postings, 205 Tage joss.beaumontSalu dlg,

technisch haben wir hier glücklicherweise unsere Spezialisten, welche definitiv "näher dran sind". Das Osram auf Veeco und AMS auf AIX setzt, meine ich auch gehört zu haben.

Wäre natzürlich schön, wenn AIX in den M-Dax aufrücken könnte. Sicher ist das aber wohl nicht..... Oder hat hier jemand weitzere Informationen bzw. Einschätzungen?

Dier DIRK Geschichte wäre tatsächlich etwas für das andere Forum, wenn es denn dort jemand einstellt.

à bientôt

Joss



 

13.08.20 14:27
2

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Joss, sicher ist das definitiv nicht, wenn ich mir die Juli-Rangliste anschaue:
Ado Prop. // 68 // 102 // 170
Talanx // 77 // 99 // 176
Aixtron // 91 // 80 // 171

Gerade auf n-tv hat aber R. Brichta so gesprochen, als würde Aixtron das Rennen machen :-). Versehen mit dem Hinweis "Aixtron ein Überbleibsel des Neuen Markts, Gott habe ihn selig" oder so ähnlich (war in der neuesten Schalte, nicht in dem u.a. Link.

Guckstduhier, nach 4:50min:
https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/sendungen/...15-Uhr-article9834481.html  

13.08.20 14:30
1

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mhMDAX

Auf N-TV lief gerade ein Beitrag in dem Aixtron als Aufsteiger genannt wurde.

Ist aber immer noch alles Spekulation bis die Dt. Börse es definitiv bestätigt.

Könnte den Anstieg um 2,5% heute erklären.

Gruß
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 

13.08.20 14:53
1

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mh@dlg.

cry you beat me to it!!

 

13.08.20 17:01
2

1176 Postings, 3804 Tage baggo-mh@CWL1

Thanks !!

The battle for next TV is on. In my opinion OVPD and  OVJP are missing in the article. Having listened to the Universal CC you know that they have high hopes in this.

https://www.oled-info.com/udc-establishes-subsidiary-advance-ovjp-commercialization
Now here comes the twist. Universal has developped the OVPD in their labs and liscenced it to Aixtron in 2004 (?) as they have no means to design maschines like Aixtron can do.

The same goes for OVJP. What Universal knows is how to "treat" the molecules to get the most output, durability and unifomity with the least amount of waste.  I believe OVJP will have advantges over ink jet printing, just like laser printer is superior to inkjet printer. However, it is still an R&D project and could take years to the factory.
 
My tech-money is on Aixtron/OVPD in combination with Universal OLED material incl. deep blue ("we are making excellent progress").

Greetings from Germany
laugthingcool baggo-mh

 



 

13.08.20 19:16

799 Postings, 1165 Tage CWL1@baggo

My knowledge of OVJP is limited.  One certainty is that someone has to be willing to risk hundreds of millions of $ over many years just to prove it on a Gen 2 platform.  OVJP is for RGB OLED, and I believe OVPD  is for RGB OLED too.

Best Regards,
CWL1  

13.08.20 22:17
2

1 Posting, 8 Tage Raven 111Handelsblatt

Hallo zusammen,
lt. dem Handelsblatt schafft es Aixtron in den M-DAX


https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/...milie-/26091898.html  

14.08.20 08:26

3773 Postings, 2599 Tage dlg....

Vielen Dank, Raven! Mit Hilfe von Deinem HB-Artikel habe ich das jetzt (hoffentlich) auch final verstanden ? demnach sollte Aixtron in der Tat der MDAX-Platz sicher sein, da Aixtron der einzige Wert ist, der bei BEIDEN Kritierien unter 95 liegt.

MK // Umsatz
Ado Prop. // 68 // 102
Talanx // 77 // 99
Aixtron // 91 // 80

Bei Fast Exit eines Kandidaten:
?It is replaced by the company with the highest free float market capitalisation that has the corresponding ranking positions for BOTH criteria in the ?alternate candidate rank? stated in the ?Overview of rules? table for the respective selection index? (e.g. smaller than or equal to 35 in the DAX® ranks)? Ergänzung von mir: (e.g. smaller than or equal to 95 in the DAX® ranks)

Alternate candidate rank FF MCap/OB volume: 95/95; 95/100; 95/105

S. 29: https://www.dax-indices.com/document/Resources/..._Equity_Indices.pdf


Gestern eine Outperformance ggü dem Dax von 3,5% - nicht die Welt, aber das war ja bisher nur die Vorfreue, es kommt noch die offizielle Entscheidung sowie der tatsächliche Termin der Aufnahme. Wann die ETFs kaufen können/müssen, weiß ich nicht.  

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