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Apple Might Not Use Sapphire, Short GT Advanced Technologies

Jul 07 2014, 11:30 | by Akshansh Gandhi | about: gtat | includes: aapl
Summary

Due to the high cost of producing sapphire, Apple may not use it in the iPhone 6.
Recent reports indicate that Apple may not have enough sapphire to use in both the versions of the iPhone 6.
GT Advanced Technologies has a high short of interest and will struggle to justify its valuation.
GT Advanced Technologies is a good short candidate.
GT Advanced Technologies' (NASDAQ:GTAT) performance in the last twelve months has been astronomic to say the least. GT's shares are up 257% in the past six months, as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced that it is advancing $578 million to GT to employ over 700 people at Apple's Arizona facility to manufacture sapphire. This big deal with Apple is the reason behind its robust rise in the stock price, which puts a curtain on various negative aspects that could adversely affect GT.

However, Apple hasn't confirmed it will be using GT Advanced Technologies' sapphire in the iPhone 6, and there are many factors that point toward the fact it may not happen.

Is GT overhyped?

First, with the smartphone market saturating, Apple will be looking to maximize its profit on the iPhone 6, and given that sapphire displays are expensive, Apple may decide to stick to Corning's (NYSE:GLW) Gorilla Glass.

As of now, the estimated price of sapphire display for an iPhone-sized phone lies in the $9-$12 range. In comparison, Gorilla Glass will cost Apple less than $3 for the same. Given the massive difference in the manufacturing cost, Apple may decide to not use sapphire in the iPhone 6.
 

It does appear that there could be a change of fortunes for the stock of diversified technology company, GT Advanced Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:GTAT) in the coming weeks. Part of the reasons for such optimism is that the stock has probably landed in oversold region since big volume of sale seems to have happened in the month of July.

Change of Fortune

In July, volume of trading in GT Advanced Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:GTAT)?s stock reached as high of 32.32 million on July 7. Of the 12 days of trading, volume had crossed over 10 million in nine days, whereas, in the whole of June, volume had crossed ten million-mark only thrice. At least on two more trading sessions, the volume had either come close to 20-million mark or above than that.which was also partly because of the higher volume witnessed in the current month. Significantly, the average volume of the last ten-day period was 12.87 million.In comparison, the three-month-average volume was only 8.99 million,

As a result of the huge volume of shares changing hands in July, Forbes had reported that the stock had reached oversold zone based on the relative strength index or RSI.
The Thursday?s closing price indicates that the stock had closed below the 50-day, as well as, 200-day moving average price of $17.27 and $14.80 respectively.
http://ustradevoice.com/...nced-technologies-inc-nasdaqgtat-7898.html

Umso interessanter dass der Closing Prize am Freitag  +3,78% war
ich hatte nachgekauft zuvor,weil ich denke ,das kann einen schönen Short Squeeze geben
wenn seekingalpha in dem Artikel seit einer Woche bekannte Downgrades wiederholt  ist das nicht überzeugend ,zeigt eher die Bemühungen der Leerkäufer beim Shorten  

.....It's understandable why the stock has fallen more than 20% this month on concerns about sapphire constraint, and shipments to Apple falling below expectations. But as much as sapphire -- and the Apple deal -- are transformative, GT Advanced still has strong ties -- and technology -- in the solar manufacturing space. With solar demand expected to begin outpacing manufacturing capacity in coming years, GT Advanced is incredibly well-positioned for the next three to five years. Let's take a look at why.

....companies with a history tied to low-efficiency, commodity solar panels are moving upstream to panels which generate more power per unit of space they take up. At the same time, solar demand is expected to start pushing available manufacturing capacity in coming years:solar demand is expected to triple from 2013-2017...This increased demand is responsible for a lot of recent activity in the solar world, with different players integrating more parts of the solar value chain into their businesses. ...

For GT Advanced, these short-term moves point to the long-term opportunity: Solar manufacturing capacity simply won't be able to keep up with demand, and panel makers will need to start adding capacity soon. Add in the market's shift upstream to more efficient panels, and there's a lot to like about What GT Advanced is bringing to the solar market. While it's not clear how much Trina Solar directly would benefit from integrating GT Advanced's manufacturing systems, or materials making into its operation, plenty of its competitors and suppliers likely will be

...The weakness in GT's stock is a product of the short-term speculation around the Apple sapphire supply. This is an important thing to watch, because if GT struggles to meet Apple's demand, it will hurt the bottom line. But there are some indications that GT has already increased production, and the delays are tied to third party finishing companies and not GT's ability to produce in quantity.

The real long-term play for GT is as much about solar materials and manufacturing, as it is about Apple or other consumer electronics makers. As Chinese panel makers like Trina Solar face the tariff, and the industry faces a need for increased capacity and demand for higher efficiency panels, GT Advanced will be in a winning position.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/20/...ced-but-sola.aspx  

GT Advanced Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:GTAT) was on the rise after it was found in the list of David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, with 25 buy-rated stocks with at least $1 billion in equity capitalization and 25% upside to Goldman?s price target.

http://www.marketsemerging.com/...ro-qualcomm-inc-nasdaqqcom/1710864/  

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/07/22/...-are-worth-a-look/


übrigens Apple heute abend nach Börsenschluss
Apple Inc. is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results after the close of trading Tuesday, and the iPhone and iPad maker can expect close scrutiny from investors

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...s-ibm-deal-will-be-key-2014-07-18  

Summary

   GT's Hyperion proton accelerator is a high energy, high current proton accelerator ideally suited for Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT) cancer treatment.
   GT's Hyperion Proton Accelerator is straightforward to manufacture, simple to operate, low-cost, highly reliable and is ready for large-scale commercialization.
   GT's Hyperion line of business is worth up to $24 per share. GT expects to receive a PO for Hyperion in 2014 related to Medical or Military use.

Last week GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ:GTAT) traveled to Helsinki, Finland to showcase its Hyperion Technology for use in the treatment of cancer!Hyperion is GT's high energy, high current proton accelerator and is protected by 55 issued patents, and GT has 25 additional pending patents related to Hyperion. GT's Hyperion technology is truly revolutionary,........

Hyperion Market Potential
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-laser-focused-on-cancer-treatment  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/...gger-iphones-looming.html

....Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook talking about an ?incredible pipeline? that ?we can?t wait to show you,? and finance chief Luca Maestri declaring it would be a ?very busy fall.? ....?We?re seeing some purchase delays and we?ve reflected that in our guidance,? Maestri said. ?It happens. We have to live with that.? ...  

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2014/07/.../?partner=yahootix  

.......
Investors shorting GT Advanced Technologies should evaluate their position. ...

On July 22, 2014 the website appleinsider noted:

   As published by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Apple's U.S. Patent No. 8,787,006 for a "Wrist-worn electronic device and methods therefor" describes a device (dubbed "iTime" in one illustration) that fits squarely with speculation regarding a so-called "iWatch" smartwatch.

....Would Apple release a smartwatch without a sapphire cover? Whatever form of wearable Apple would produce can reasonably be expected to include a sapphire cover if it is expected to compete in the mid and luxury wearable category. So much of the Apple sapphire production could be expected to be used for its wearables....

Investors should be aware of a recently published article by noted technology industry consultant Tim Bajarin. Bajarin's PC Magazine bio states:...In his July, 21, 2014 column on PC Mag titled "How Apple Could Afford an iPhone With a Sapphire Display" Bajarin notes:

   This is just speculation, but I believe that Apple could be working on a program where it offers the sapphire screen on an iPhone and perhaps even an iPad as an option.

   ... a highly durable, completely scratch-proof sapphire display could be attractive to clumsy people and businesses where durability is critical to their work.... if Apple gave its users the option of ordering one with the sapphire screen on it and charged an additional $100 to $125? For customers who need ultra durables this would still come in cheaper than most competitors who specialize in smartphones or tablets for this market.I would bet that a high percentage of Apple's mainstream business customers would opt for sapphire too since these products are used for work and get manhandled much more than they do than in the hands of a typical consumer.....

Another speculative possibility is for Apple to offer enterprise versions of the iPhone and iPad, clad in durable sapphire at a premium, through its new business agreement with IBM.
. An article in MIT Technology Review, "Your Next Smartphone Screen May Be Made of Sapphire" by Kevin Bullis, March 20, 2013 cites Eric Virey, an analyst for the market research firm Yole Développement as stating "a sapphire display would cost about $30. But that could fall below $20 in a couple of years thanks to increased competition and improving technology". However, Kevin Bullis notes:

   GT is more optimistic about prices than Virey, estimating that sapphire displays might cost only three to four times as much as those made from Gorilla Glass. People at the company say prices will fall further as GT improves its furnaces, and as the manufacturers that buy those furnaces streamline their operations.

As of July 25, 2014 Kevin Bullis has published an updated article on the manufacturing process for sapphire screen covers, "Cheap and Nearly Unbreakable Sapphire Screens Come into View" - MIT Technology Review. GT Advanced Technologies showed him "a new manufacturing process that produces inexpensive sheets of sapphire roughly half as thick as a human hair, making it possible to add a tough layer of sapphire to just about any smartphone or tablet screen relatively cheaply."....The new process from GT Advanced Technologies uses a device called a Hyperion ion implanter to create layers of sapphire thinner than a human hair without requiring sawing and grinding.....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...stment-in-gt-advanced-technologies  

http://www.bidnessetc.com/...ogies-sinks-on-reduced-sapphire-outlook/
wie der sich positioniert hat ist klar  

und abwärts gehts
na der kleine Hype wohl vorbei???  

The company announced that the company will release its financial results for the quarter ending June 28, 2014 after the market closes on NASDAQ on Monday, August 4, 2014. Management will conduct an investment community conference call the following day, Tuesday, August 5, 2014, at 8:00am ET.
http://investor.gtat.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=861294

und dann dieser dämliche Inder,der empfiehlt GTAT zu verkaufen und Corning zu kaufen
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ou-buy-corning-going-into-earnings

aber eine Gewinnwarnung gab es nicht,nur dies am 30.Juni ,das eher marginalen Gewinneinfluss hat
http://investor.gtat.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=857006  

Danke Kicky

und wie ist deine Einschätzung???  

aber es kann auch in die Hose gehe,nur ist ja alles Negative bisher bekannt wie ,dass das Iphone 5,5 erst später kommt ,und es gibt kaum einen Wert,der so stark geshortet wurde wie GTAT
sollte der Report doch eher positiv sein ,gibts einen saftigen Short Squeeze,jetzt rauszugehen ist wohl eher zu spät
vielleicht für Ängstliche zu empfehlen,aber ich habe ängstlich immer zu früh verkauft s.Gamesa  

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gtat/after-hours
Tradegate hat übertrieben mit minus 5%  

....Corning?s LCD glass volume grew more than expected due in part to stronger-than-expected retail TV sales in Europe and South America, likely driven by the FIFA World Cup. Year-over-year sales in the Optical Communications and Environmental Technologies segments grew 14% and 25%, respectively....

http://www.corning.com/news_center/news_releases/2014/2014072901.aspx  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ies-the-solar-industry-capex-cycle

......Conclusions

   In the next five years, we are going to witness another capacity expansion cycle in the solar industry. That, in addition to equipment upgrades in order to achieve cost reduction, will create a large CapEx cake for equipment vendors.
  GT Technologies and Mayer Burger are the two solar equipment suppliers that I expect to benefit the most from this trend.
   New equipment lined up for solar manufacturers to utilize in this upcoming cycle will enable further cost reductions, which will help them maintain/improve their gross margins going forward.  

Corning (NYSE:GLW) shattered its recent winning streak on the stock market after posting second-quarter earnings early Tuesday that missed Wall Street estimates. The maker of specialty glass was hurt by lower demand for its Gorilla Glass, which is used in smartphones from Apple and Samsung.

The Corning, N.Y.-based company earned 37 cents a share excluding items in the June quarter, up 16% from Q2 2013, but that missed analyst estimates by a penny. Sales rose 28% to $2.58 billion, vs. expectations for $2.53 billion.

Corning stock was down nearly 10% in midday trading on the stock market today, near 20, a four-month low. Before Tuesday, Corning stock has been up 24% in 2014.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/technology/...es-slowdown.htm#ixzz38wiqGzRI
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook
 

Sales of Gorilla Glass, a damage-resistant cover glass for smartphones and tablets, were less than anticipated, due to lower retail demand for smartphones and high-end tablets, and lower-than-expected sales for planned new models. Its sales were flat, at $298 million.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/technology/...es-slowdown.htm#ixzz38wjAIOpl

s.Empfehlung des Inders bei seekingalpha  #187

das sieht ja richtig gut aus
 

mir die News zu sehr in schwarz und weiß, erinnert schon ein wenig an das Gute und das Böse bei Herr der Ringe.

Um bei der Analogie zu bleiben, bei der Ausgangslage und mit etwas Geduld gibt es mMn auch für die Gefährten also den Shareholdern bei GT Ad ein "Happy End".  

langsam bin ich richtig sauer auf die verdammten Leerkäufer
Und so schlecht kann der Report gar nicht sein  

Summary

   GTAT has patented the world's only commercially available technology for high-volume production of ultra-thin monocrystalline silicon wafers.
   These wafers will be used to produce the thinnest-ever high-efficiency monocrystalline solar cells.
   GTAT's new patent gives it claims on the only commercially available technology capable of producing 20 micron layers of monocrystalline silicon in bulk.

....    GTAT has patented the world's only commercially available technology for high-volume production of ultra-thin monocrystalline silicon wafers.

Originally published to PTT Forensics subscribers on 7/2/14
   These wafers will be used to produce the thinnest-ever high-efficiency monocrystalline solar cells.

Conclusion - GTAT's Hyperion 4 Technology is a Solar BEAST  GTAT's leading technologies touch 3 key stages of monocrystalline solar cell production: Production (HiCz?), Finishing (Hyperion exfoliation) and Module Design (Merlin).....Hyperion is 10 times more powerful than any other commercially available accelerator.
...I am currently modeling Hyperion sales of $100m in 2015 and $800m in 2016 with a 45% gross margin. I expect Hyperion to contribute $0.18 in EPS in 2014 and $1.45 in 2016. I believe GTAT's Hyperion business ALONE is currently worth $24 per share,......

ausführlicher Artikel dazu  
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...hyperion-is-commercially-available

Registrierung ist frei  

bei Nasdaq  

GTAT will release its financial results for quarter ending June 28, 2014 after market closes on NASDAQ on Monday Aug. 4, 2014.  

von einem der eigentlich ein Corningfan ist
sollte der Bericht am Montag besser als erwartet sein kann es einen Shortsqueeze bis auf $20-25 geben da das short interest mit 35% überdurchschnittlich hoch ist

......the level of short interest is very high at 34%. That means more than one out of every three shares on the market are borrowed and shorted.
When the short side becomes crowded, and make no mistake, this is crowded, if the management team delivers in the report and guides higher than expected, it could catch short sellers by surprise and create a short squeeze. The forward price-to-earnings ratio could expand at the same time and drive the stock to $25 or more.
Depending on how well Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 6 is received, GT Advanced my learn how to walk higher and squeeze the heck out of the shorts. I think if it's true that GT captured the iPhone 6 business from Corning, GT Advanced's legs may take the shares back above $20 faster than a new app download.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...s-may-mean-more?app=1&uprof=46