Solar-perle aus Kanada

...und freue mich. Kann aber gleich auch wieder ganz anders aussehen. Abwarten.  

...mal schauen  

Das ist wohl nicht das Problem mit chinesischen Solarkraftwerken in einem in den USA gelisteten YieldCo.

Das Problem in China ist ganz einfach, die Einspeisevergütungen werden viel zu spät ausbezahlt im Gegensatz zur westlichen Welt wo die Einspeisevergütungen bzw. in den USA die abgeschlossenen PPA-Verträge mit einem Energieversorger zu Anfang des Monats vom Vormonat bezahlt werden.

In China ist die Zahlungsmoral deutlich schlechter. Sieht man bei Jinko. Jinko hat im letzten Jahr 43 Mio. $ an Stromeinnahmen verbucht, bezahlt waren aber bis Ende 2014 lediglich 16 Mio. $. Die restlichen 27 Mio. $ stehen in der Bilanz unter "Forderungen auf Lieferungen und Leistungen". Erst wenn dieses Problem gelöst ist wird ein YieldCo mit chinesischen Solarkraftwerken auch außerhalbs Chinas interessant werden. Ein YieldCo steht und fällt mit zuverlässigen bzw. nicht zuverlässigen Cash Flows.

SunEdison bezahlt z.B. bei ihrem Terraform YieldCo eine Dividende von 0,27 $ im Jahr (ausgeschüttet wird jedes Quartal), entspricht beim aktuellen Kurs einer Dividendenrednite von 3,05%. Ein YieldCo mit chinesischen Solarkraftwerken wird mit Sicherheit eine höhere Rendite abwerfen im Brereich von gut und gerne 5%, aber wie erwähnt erst müssen in China klare Verhältnisse her, dass die Stromeinnahmen der Solarkraftwerke pünktlich und zeitnah ausbezahlt werden.  

Canadian wäre mit ihrer großen Projektpipline inkl. der Projektpipeline von Recurrent Energy ja nur bescheuert wenn sie in ihrer sehr guten Position nicht einen YieldCo rausbringen würden mit reinen Kraftwerken aus den USA. Die Cash Flows sind garantiert und es gibt natürlich keine Währungsprobleme. Genau so was wollen bzw. brauchen die Pensionsfonds oder Versicherungen als sichere Geldanlage.  

Also bei den Amis werden upgrades von Goldman Sachs anscheinend von mehreren Leuten als Startschuss für Shorts gesehen. Könnte man in amerikanischen Foren jedenfalls öfters lesen als das Upgrade rauskam. Im ersten Moment etwas komisch, aber zur Zeit bestätigt das der Kursverlauf. Innerhalb von Minuten von 5% plus im Pre-market zu 1-2 % Minus.  

gehts mal runter....sorry,aber das WE steht vor der Tür!!
Da werden die Gewinne gesichert.Nächste Woche gibts dann eine neue Chance!  

 

wir mal nächste Woche ab! Denke da kann man wieder Einsteigen .Obwohl mir etwas mulmig ist,im Q1.Letztes Jahr ging es gehörig nach unten!  

Ich halte erstmal die Füße still. Dow, S&P und Nasdaq scheinen alle nächste Woche weiter zu korrigieren. Jedenfalls zeigen alle die gleichen charttechnischen Anzeichen im RSI und MACD. Gehe Von 300-400 Punkten beim dow und knapp 100 Punkten beim S&p aus. Wenn die dann unten anschlagen Steig ich bei canadian wieder ein.  

Hat in der aktuellen Ausgabe einen Bericht über canadian Solar, Trina und Jinko.
Fazit des Berichtes: neue Fantasie durch die geplanten YieldCos, aber für den Leser hier nicht wirklich was neues.  

sich ja nicht so prickelnd an :

http://m.pv-magazine.de/nachrichten/details/...undertaking_100018504/

Ist das ein ernstzunehmendes Problem ?

Lg  

Canadian Solar hat im letzten Quartal nur noch ca 5% seines Absatzes in Europa getätigt. Diese 5% können sie meiner Meinung nach auch in anderen Märkten absetzen. Ich sehe es nicht als Problem an, vielleicht als kurzfristiges wegen einer Überreaktion an den Märkten, aber kein nachhaltiges Problem. (alles nur meine Meinung)

Gruß MrCh

 

Ed Jobs, IR Director for Canadian Solar, commented, "We believe that we have been compliant with the undertaking agreement. Any decision of the European Commission would not have a significant impact on our guidance for the full year 2015. Europe accounts for a small part of our business and, in any case, we can continue servicing our customers in Europe."

Quelle:
http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/...sues-concerning-20150310-00200  

ich suche noch ein weiteres unternehmen in der solarbranche um eine posi aufzubauen, nachdem ich mit jinko bisher sehr gut fahre.

ist bei canadian noch platz nach oben? wir bewegen uns ja im bereich der bisherigen höchstkurse.

Was meint ihr?  

...demnächst wieder eine Menge Platz nach oben geben. Warte einfach mal ab.  

boerse online hat einen Artikel zu Solarwerten verfasst und u. a. auch CanadianSolar erwähnt. Steht zwar nichts neues drin, aber hilft sicher etwas, den Bekanntheitsgrad zu steigern.

http://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/...bedeutet-1000530526

Gruß MrCh  

guter Artikel danke für den Link. Hat mich in meiner Entscheidung bekräftigt auf die Branche dieses Jahr genauer hinzuschauen :)  

 

http://www.ariva.de/news/...chinesische-Solarfirmen-bestrafen-5310131  

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2374266-chinese-solar-stocks-rallying

JinkoSolar (JKS +2.8%), which was down premarket following news of a fire at one of its plants, is among the gainers. As are JA Solar (JASO +3.3%), Daqo (DQ +5.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.1%), ReneSola (SOL +6.9%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +2.1%). Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.1%), which has extensive Chinese manufacturing ops, is also rallying.
The gains come as WTI crude oil continues trading near $43/barrel. The Q4 results and full-year guidance provided by solar firms in February and March suggest oil (responsible for only a small % of global electricity output) isn't having a big near-term impact on solar investments.

News für JASO,YGE,TSL  http://www.streetwisereport.com/...rgy-holding-co-ltd-nyseyge/111906/  

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...fer-choices-for-investment-in-2015


Summary

   The growth in shipments presented by Chinese companies is in line with the demand growth for the industry in 2015, no overcapacity expected.
   Market conditions are manageable at the enterprise level- EU market to shrink, gap to be replaced by emerging markets.
   Healthy demand and yield vehicles support investment in Chinese companies.

In 2014, I focused on four Chinese companies as being good choices for the solar portfolio: Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ), JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO), JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL). Once more I am looking at the top four companies as the best investment strategy for the coming year.

To make the elimination process simplified, I will use the criterion of profitability. Also, for the first time I am going to add two US-based companies: First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR), to formulate some benchmarks.......
....
In relatively stable conditions of yield vehicles reinforced by healthy demand, most of the mentioned companies offer a solid investment choice. It is early to tell, but accepted valuations from the past could soon fall under revisions.
Since Canadian Solar talked about yield, Frank He from Goldman Sachs issued a conviction buy on its shares, which was a departure from his traditionally low price assessment. It seems some investors took this reversal as duplicity, but it could be that the analyst's opinion represents the beginning of a change. ....
 

dass der 2. Solargeneration bis 2030 80 Prozent des gesamten Solarmarktes zugestanden werden. Diejenigen Firmen, die in der ersten Reihe agieren, sollten, so keine groben Schnitzer gemacht werden, überproportional davon profitieren.
Das solare Zeitalter ist noch jung. :)
 

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/03/17/...ecord-high-target/?

das hat die Solarwerte euphorisiert,mehr Utility Projects könnten realisiert werden sagt
Deutsche Bank?s Yuxiao Peng, Michael Tong and Yingying Dong.This year, there is no mention of a breakdown into large-scale utility solar farms versus smaller rooftop distributed projects, which is a great plus.This policy change makes the installation target easier to achieve.? Last year, Beijing insisted that the solar industry move to distributed projects, even though the companies had trouble getting financing for rooftop installations. ?The financing difficulty for distributed solar projects is unlikely to be solved in the near future, but the gap can be filled with more utility scale projects with attractive return profile,? added Deutsche analysts.
 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/...ng-pipeline-keeps-it-ahead-of-pack
-....
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) is one the industry's lowest cost manufacturers of solar panels. The company recently announced its Q4 and full year 2014 results, in which it beat its own guidance on many fronts. Canadian Solar is also amongst the three largest suppliers of solar modules globally. The company has manufacturing base in China and is thinking of expanding capacity there. Canadian Solar is also the only Chinese company with a strong downstream project development business. Its recent acquisition of Recurrent Energy, strong pipeline of projects globally, potential yieldco in near future and low manufacturing costs make it one of the strongest players in the industry. The company gave a record breaking EPS of $4.11 for the full year 2014, which ranks it amongst the three most profitable solar companies in the industry. Canadian Solar is a strong buy in my books.

Why Canadian Solar is a strong pick

1) Potential Yieldco will unlock value - Canadian Solar is planning a yieldco in the next year. Yieldcos are gaining success in the solar industry today. ...Given Canadian Solar's strong financial condition and solid project pipeline in low-risk geographies, forming a yieldco should not be a challenge.

2) Strong Project Pipeline globally - Canadian Solar is amongst the largest system developers, with a project pipeline of 8.5 GW globally. Its pipeline extends to USA, China, Canada, Japan, UK and other countries. Over C$900 million is expected from its project pipeline in the coming 6-12 months.

Canadian Solar's acquisition of Recurrent Energy further strengthens its strong diversified solar project development business. Recurrent Energy is a solar energy developer in North America. This acquisition added another 4 GW of projects to the CSIQ's already strong existing pipeline. Recurrent's 1 GW utility scale project is in its late stage, with a revenue opportunity of at least $2.3 billion for CSIQ. Canadian Solar's current project pipeline is 8.5 GW after the acquisition.

4) Low costs and Capacity Expansion- Canadian Solar has plans to increase the capacity of its Chinese manufacturing plant. The company already has a manufacturing capacity of 3.5 GW of solar module production. Canadian Solar will further add capacity to its already existing plant and use OEM suppliers from outside China.

5) Strong 2014 performance - Full year revenues amounted close to $3 billion, which exceeded the company's guidance. Shipments were close to 3.1 GW which ranks Canadian Solar amongst the world's top 5 global solar panel makers. The company is cash rich, with cash balance at $1.02 billion

6) 2015 Guidance is even better - The gross margin is expected to be in the range of 16-18% for the forthcoming quarter and 19.6% for the full year 2015. The annual shipment is estimated to be near 4-4.3 GW, which is higher than Jinko Solar's (NYSE:JKS) 3.3-3.8 GW....

Conclusion

2014 was another good year for Canadian Solar and based on the company's guidance, 2015 should prove to be even better.....  

Summary

   Canadian Solar's projected and late-stage pipeline is growing at a fast pace due to its presence in key solar markets such as North America and China.
   Canadian Solar has trained its sights on the fast-growing Chinese solar market, where it has set up a plant with robust expandable capacity.
   Canadian Solar has also minimized the production cost of various solar modules in China over the past few years, and this will have a positive impact on its gross margin.
   Despite its strong run this year, Canadian Solar is still cheaper than its peers.
....
Canadian Solar has strengthened its project pipeline in a strategic manner. For instance, the company recently bought Recurrent Energy, a North American solar company, for $265 million. This acquisition has added another 4 GW of downstream projects to Canadian Solar's existing project pipeline. Also, this transaction is expected to improve its late stage project pipeline by approximately 1 GW to 2.4 GW, leading to a revenue opportunity of more than $2.3 billion over the next two years.

Additionally, this acquisition has strengthened Canadian Solar's footprint in North America. This is a smart move, since the North American solar market is expected to grow at a fast pace going forward ...

Canadian Solar is also strengthening its footprint in the Chinese market, where it is has recently deployed a new manufacturing plant. At the end of last year, the factory was capable of producing 60 MW, but it is expected that Canadian Solar can ramp up the capacity to an impressive 1.2 GW. ...

According to Barron's, "China's energy regulator National Energy Administration released its official solar installation target for 2015. Beijing decided to install 17.8GW, 19% higher than the 15GW mentioned in the draft circular."

....the company has minimized the cost of its polysilicon wafers at its Chinese factories from $0.76/W to $0.21/W, the cost of solar cells from $0.22/W to $0.13/W, and the cost of modules from $0.33/W to $0.13/W in the past three years. Driven by such efforts, Canadian Solar's margins will continue improving going forward.

Canadian Solar's project pipeline is growing at a fast pace, and the company is reducing its costs as well. Hence, it should be able to deliver a strong bottom line performance going forward. .....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/...-impressive-run-is-set-to-continue