Das fängt schon damit an, dass die Prognosen für US-Unternehmen viel zu rosig sind, weil Werte der Vergangenheit von Analysten linear in die Zukunft hochgerechnet werden. Das sind die selben Spezis, die beim EUR/USD-Kurs von 1,35 letzten Winter ein Kursziel von 1,80 nannten - eine "Binse", die es bis auf das Titelblatt des "Spiegels" schaffte.
Die US-Wirtschaft wächst, aber die Job-Zahlen wachsen nicht mit. Sie sind sogar seit 2000 um 16 % rückläufig (Details: Mein "Doomsday-Bären Thread").
Der US-Konsument, der 2/3 der US-Wirtschaft stützt, ächzt und rackert. Doch das Geld, was er aus Hypothekenbeleihungen ziehen konnte, versiegt in Zukunft, weil die Hausblase Luft ablässt. Die Sparquote ist bereits negativ, die Verschuldung nimmt immer mehr zu - beim Verbraucher, bei Firmen, beim Staat. Sollte mich wundern, wenn das ein gutes Ende nehmen würde...
Reuters
Industrial Slowdown Ahead?
1. März 2006
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The industrial sector could prove an unexpected source of weakness for the economy, and one that risks much slower growth in the second half of the year than is currently expected, according to a new report.
Most economists are predicting a gradual easing of economic growth this year as a housing slowdown makes consumers feel a bit queasier about extending their recent spending spree.
But the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent research firm that produces and tracks a cross-section of indicators, says those looking for business investment to pick up the slack from consumers could be in for a rude awakening.
"An industrial slowdown could come when consumer spending growth is already slowing, resulting in much weaker overall growth than generally anticipated this year," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.
The latest figures from the Institute for Supply Management showed a pick up in national manufacturing activity, with its index rising to 56.7 in February from 54.8 in January.
But ECRI argues that may be more of a last gasp for manufacturing in the current economic cycle then the start of a sustainable upward trend in activity.
"The not-too-hot, not-too-cold 'Goldilocks' economy envisaged by many economists could turn out to be a mirage," said Achuthan.
ECRI has come to that conclusion by monitoring a number of its leading indicators, which it says have accurately predicted fluctuations in manufacturing in the past.
The firm has also been watching recent declines in prices of commodities like industrial metals, which also tend to presage slower industrial activity.
"The correction in metals prices appears to be in line with earlier signals of a cyclical slowdown in the industrial sector, and may thus be the early stage of a cyclical downswing rather than just 'noise,'" Achuthan said.
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