According to ExxonMobil, global energy prices will most certainly grow up to 50% by the year 2030. This price increase is estimated to occur due to the pace of expanding economies in developing countries, and the rate of worldwide population growth. ?Perhaps most significant, we anticipate energy demand in developing Asia-Pacific to grow at 3.2 per cent annually, increasing to one-third of the world?s total.? This is an amount ?equivalent to the energy demand of North America and Europe combined, the US-based oil corporation says in a booklet on ?The Next Quarter-Century of Energy? released here recently.
» Source: Bernama.com
Every day, the world consumes about 230 million barrels of energy (expressed in terms of ?oil equivalent? or MBDOE, with demand split about equally between developed and developing nations.
ExxonMobil also says that with energy critical to economic progress, the global economy is expected to double in size by 2030 ? mainly driven by developing nations which now account for 20 per cent of world economic output.
?By 2030, this share will grow to 30 per cent, led by rapidly expanding economies such as China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.?
Entitled ?Tomorrow?s Energy: A Perspective on Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Future Energy Options, the booklet contains a long-range outlook of global energy trends and provides a strategic framework to aid evaluation of potential business opportunities.
?Continued rapid improvement in energy efficiency, mainly driven by the development and use of new technology in the transportation and power generation sectors, is expected to temper the growth in global energy demand,? it says.
Providing a scenario on energy needs in the future, ExxonMobil predicts that fossil fuels will remain predominant energy sources, with oil and gas to represent close to 60 per cent of the overall energy in 2030, a similar share today.
Oil use is expected to grow at 1.4 per cent annually but significant improvements in vehicle fuel economy would dampen demand growth.
Demand for gas is set to grow at 1.8 per cent annually, led mainly by strong growth in global electricity demand.
Coal, like gas, is expected to grow at 1.8 per cent annually, driven by expanding power generation.
ExxonMobil says that despite higher carbon dioxide intensity, large indigenous supplies will give coal economic advantages in many nations, particularly in Asia.
Turning to non-fossil energy supplies which are also set to expand, it says nuclear energy will grow by an average 1.4 per cent annually with the largest growth in Asia, ?although we expect North America and Europe to add new plants late in the outlook period?.
Hydro power will grow at just under two per cent a year, with increases likely in China, India and other developing countries.
As for biomass, its use including traditional fuels (wood dung) used in developing countries and solid waste will grow about 1.3 per cent per year.
Growth of wind and solar energy combined will likely average about 11 per cent annually, supported by subsidies and related mandates.
Even with this rapid projected growth, wind and solar will contribute only one per cent of total energy by the next 25 years or so, illustrating the vast scale of the global energy sector.
Biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, will grow from less than one million barrels per day (MBD) last year to about three MBD in 2030.
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