US Swing-Trading KW 03 2004

Habe meine RGLD gestern mit Verlust abgestossen. Hat mich 1/3 meines SMSI Gewinn's der KW 02 gekostet. Muss das naechste mal frueher die Reissleine ziehen. 1. KK war 20$, 2. KK war um die 19.50$. Gestern schliesslich alles zu 19.10$ rausgeworfen.....

In der letzten Woche, habe ich meinen bisher groessten Wochengewinn aller Zeiten eingefahren. Schoen.

SMSI Trade: knapp 25% Gewinn in einer Woche
DUK  Trade: knapp  8% Gewinn (ueber Nacht)
WHT  Trade: knapp 15% Gewinn ueber Neujahr
CHRS Trade: knapp  3% Gewinn (Kauf-Volumen war dafuer hoeher)


MCHM laeuft noch immer (schade schade...) - Hatte da nur 2 Cent Gewinn mitgenommen. Ging einen Tag spaeter los und flog vorher aus meinem Depot... naja. KK war 0,83$ VK bei 0,85$ (steht im Moment bei 1,10$!)

SOS ging ebenfalls ab und ich verlor zu frueh das Interesse an der Aktie (bewegte sich tagelang nicht)


Fuer die neue Woche wurde das hier gestern gekauft:

2004-01-13, 14:25:13 CAPA ARCA   6.2000
2004-01-13, 15:13:13 CRY  NYSE   7.3500
2004-01-13, 15:48:44 SMSI ISLAND 2.5900

 

Gruss,

Parocorp

_________________________________

*klick* Alle relevanten Wirtschaftstermine als Desktop-Hintergrund *klick*

 

CAPA SK  6.12$
CRY  SK   7.46$
SMSI SK   2.60$  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAPA SK   5.98$
CRY  SK   7.83$
SMSI SK   2.71$

 

Gruss,

Parocorp

_________________________________

*klick* Alle relevanten Wirtschaftstermine als Desktop-Hintergrund *klick*

 

meinst du man kann wieder einsteigen?  

fuer einen ersten KK ok...

rechne noch mit 2,40-2,45$...

aber ist in beobachtung !

gruss  

bin so bullish auf cry.... warum nur? ;-)

 

KK 7,35$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAPA SK   5.91$ (KK 6,20$)
CRY  SK    7.73$ (KK 7,35$)
SMSI SK   2.74$  (KK 2,59$)

Gekauft werden heute (hoechstwahrscheinlich):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MCZ SK 1,07$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

VIFL SK 1,15$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mad Catz Interactive (TSX-MCZ)

We are in a bit of a quandary about the valuation of Mad Catz Interactive as we await information about the level of success of the 2003 holiday season from the video game accessories maker.  While the failure of a competitor in 2002 allowed for increased access to retail accounts for Mad Catz, the market is now again becoming more competitive as Logitech (LOGI-NASDAQ) and HIP Interactive (HP-TSX) have both increased their share of the marketplace with strong product catalogues.  Logitech and Mad Catz both compete at the higher end of the accessories market, but the lower priced HIPGear products have made excellent inroads for a newer product line, and are already being sold at CompUSA, Zellers, Blockbuster, Wal-Mart Canada, and Toys-R-Us.         

Platform	Common Retail Price   .
PS2	C$219.99	US$179.99
Xbox	C$229.99	US$179.99
GameCube	C$149.99	US$99.99

One of the big questions heading into this retail holiday season was whether the Game Platform manufacturers (Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo) would drop their MSRP.  Nintendo dropped the price of their GameCube several months ago, but the prices of the Playstation2 and Xbox have remained fairly constant, with these two platforms instead choosing to bundle additional products with the platform, rather than drop the price.  We had expected that the prices would break the psychologically important levels of C$199 or US$149 for the PS2 and Xbox.  However, barring one or two limited offers, the widespread price cuts have not been made, yet.  A recent survey of platform prices is on the right.

Also this quarter, Mad Catz announced that they would be producing accessories for Nokia?s N-Gage multi-use phone, PDA, gaming system, which originally retailed for US$299, but has recently been offered for as low as US$199 including three games.  We do not hold too much hope for significant revenues to be generated by this new system as it has been widely panned by the technological press as a ?not particularly good at anything? product.  Hopefully, Mad Catz does not spend too much time and resources on the development of N-Gage products so that payback is quick and they can move on to more productive projects.

So far this season, retailers have been reporting very strong sales of electronic goods.  US retailers like BestBuy (BBY-NYSE) and Circuit City (CC-NYSE) both report excellent sales of electronic equipment, both quote strong demand for digital cameras and TVs, but neither mentioned video game systems nor their accessories.  Further industry-wide information about the success of the quarter will likely come out prior to the Company?s quarterly announcement, which is expected in February.

Financially, the fiscal third quarter, which ends December 31st, is the Company?s most important and typically the most profitable of the year.  We are expecting EPS of US10¢ per share for Q3-04.  However, to achieve this projected level of profitability the Company needs to maintain a good gross margin level; something which they have not been able to do in the last two holiday seasons.  The recently acquired GameShark brand will be key to maintaining a high level of profitability as it is a new division to the Company and can generate very high margins.  The Company also has an operating line of credit for up to US$35 million and we have estimated that they will likely use the majority, if not all, of that credit room in order to fund their sales and inventory build up.  The operating line stood at $17 million at the end of September and $23.7 million in December 2002.

Due to the loss incurred in the first quarter of fiscal 2004, the expected EPS for fiscal 2004 is US9¢.  Depending on the valuation method and assumptions used gives us a valuation range of C$1.32 to C$1.67, averaging out at approximately $1.50. 

Therefore, we are going to maintain our Hold recommendation and $1.50 target price for Mad Catz Interactive.

 

 

To read further research on Mad Catz Interactive, please click here.

 

 

 

SK 1,16$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SK 1,01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SK 2,77$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SK 7,99$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAPA: alles rausgeworfen zu 6,18$ (KK 6,20$)

 

 

 

Gruesse und mit viel Vorfreude auf Morgen.....

P.

 

 

 

 

zu 1,04$ (MCZ) & 1,16$ (VIFL)  

CRY  SK   8.04$   (KK 7,35$)
SMSI SK   2.75$  (KK 2,59$)
VIFL SK   1.28$   (KK 1.16$)
MCZ  SK   1.06$  (KK 1.04$)
 

CRY  SK   8.00$   (KK 7,35$)
SMSI SK   2.69$  (KK 2,59$)
VIFL SK   1.36$   (KK 1.16$)
MCZ  SK   1.05$  (KK 1.04$)  

CRY  SK   8.19$   (KK 7,35$)
SMSI SK   2.73$  (KK 2,59$)
VIFL SK   1.35$   (KK 1.16$)
MCZ  SK   1.04$  (KK 1.04$)



Heute wird nochmal eingekauft... eine von diesen 3.....


SSTR




VDM



NTST

 

CRY  raus zu 7.83$ (KK 7,35$)
SMSI raus zu 2.60$ (KK 2,59$)
VIFL raus zu 1.29$ (KK 1.16$)

MCZ  bleibt drin SK 1.10$ (KK 1.04$)

Gestern zugekauft:

GT zu 10.12$ (SK 10.39$)


MZ koennte heute kommen:

Milacron reaffirms guidance above Q4 consensus (MZ) 3.23 +0.14: Co expects to report sales at the high end of previous guidance, approx $193 mln, above Reuters consensus of $184 mln. Excluding a $14 mln goodwill impairment charge co expects to report in line with previous EPS guidance of break even, Reuters consensus is a loss of $0.04.



 

Truth is stranger than fiction, because fiction has to make sense
 

TRAC hab ich im Moment nicht im Auge...

Gruss
 

CAPA hälts sich doch sehr stabil :-)


Truth is stranger than fiction, because fiction has to make sense
 

MCZ Chart schaut gut aus, schau mal oben!

Hoffe sie nimmt endlich Anlauf... Zahlen kommen Anfang Februar.

Viel Glueck mit TRAC!

Gruss
 

Gegen deine MZ kann ich wohl nicht anstinken, aber 9% ist doch auch ok.


Truth is stranger than fiction, because fiction has to make sense
 

Ausbruch über Doppeltop.


Truth is stranger than fiction, because fiction has to make sense
 

Siehe Chart oben...  

MCZ SK 1.23$ (KK 1.04$)

GT bleibt drin SK 10.38$ (KK 10.12$ - Intradayhoch bei 10.61$)


Von MZ reden wir jetzt mal lieber nicht, hmmm? ;o)