Aixtron purpose of this thread

Rumors and Stories can be lies especially about stocks.  Those film uniformity numbers from the improved G10-SiC don't lie.  I trust the Aixtron engineers anytime vs. stock market operators who have a single motive: money.

This particular information interests me the most because it is new to me:

- Zur ebenfalls kolportierten Frage der Eignung für größere 8?? Wafer: Der G10 SiC wurde zunächst für 200 mm (8??) Wafer entwickelt - später wurde er (sozusagen rückwärts) auf kleinere 150 mm Wafer erweitert.

One must separate the 200mm from the 150mm performance and their markets.

That explains why G10-SiC initially did not win the 150mm market as I have written earlier.  Now I realize the tool originally was not developed for the 150mm.  The situation has changed quite recently as the G10-SiC has come in with much improved and even better 150mm performance against the competitors based on single wafer designs.  

However, the previous generation batch reactors such as the G5 WWC did lose the competition on 150mm SiC epi.  On that, the customers have spoken loud and clear.
 

i find it interesing that they said the Osram Story won't have any effect on Guidance.
Does this mean Osram didn't order from Aixtron? Who is the supplier for the planed MicroLED production line?

i wonder what made Apple change their mind from own production to buying the Displays? I guess they postponed maybe for some years and thought we cancel now and buy later when BOE etc. can offer them for a chaper price?  

but would the customers change to the G10 150mm when their plants are now equipped with the competitors machinery?  

Als ich hier eingestiegen bin zwischen 2004 und 2007 gab es das Gerücht, dass Applied Materials Interesse habe.

Als die Chinesen das Unternehmen 2016 kaufen wollten hat man von Applied Materials nichts gehört. Damals stand der Kur bei 3,xx und es hat keine Gegenangebote zu den 6 der Chinesen gegeben.

Ich kann mir eine Übernahme ehrlich gesagt nicht vorstellen.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

Aixtron delievered all exisiting MicroLED order from AMS-Osram in Q4. Apple does not stop the microLED project (like the car project), they are just not ordering from AMS-Osram. Why? Maybe soemone is cheaper or can deliver quicker than AMS.

CWL1 wrote in post #1640

In there, Fucai is Ennostar and Huacan is HCsemitek, both are customers of Aixtron.  Hope you could get some sense based on your own translation:

PlayNitride is also an option. Don't forget the first OLED screens for the iPhone Apple ordered from Samsung, as they were lightyears ahead of anyone else with that display technology.

So for Aixtron microLED is pretty much alive.

Greetings
baggo-mh

 

empfiehlt den Aixtron GaN und SiC Kunden Navitas als unentdeckten KI Profiteur.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/guenstige-einstiegschance-alternative-zu-nvidia-bei-dieser-chip-aktie-sehen-analysten-kraeftiges-wachstumspotenzial-13390867

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Es ist desaströs, was mit Aixtron gerade gemacht wird. Es gibt kein halten mehr. Es geht nur noch ins tiefe Loch. Es wäre schön wenn Jefferies angeben würde ab wann wir die 50 ? Kursziel erreichen sollen.
 

This is the presentation for launching G10-GaN in Taiwan last September.  Today due to the rumor many people have doubts about G10-SiC against the single wafer tool competitors.  I wish Aixtron has a similar presentation on G10-SiC with technical details to put those doubts to rest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlIiUnrXHdc  

die wahrscheinlich einen neuen Lieferanten gefunden haben.

AIXTRON erhält Gold Supplier Award von BOE HC SemiTek für Zusammenarbeit bei Micro LED 

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/AIXTRON-erhaelt-Gold-Supplier-Award-von-BOE-HC-SemiTek-fuer-Zusammenarbeit-bei-Micro-LED/35934280

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

it's just weird buliding a production line and then cancel it. well it's apple, they have enough cash :)

well, lets hope the supplier uses Aixtron :)

i hope at the Q1 CC Aixtron will destroy the roumers and make things absolutely clear. the stock development sinxe q4/2023 is just bad.

i guess the gold supplier award concerning microled might help a bit.

i wonder if they might get some push when they try to get a list in Nasdaq but get more US attention.  

This chart is self-explanatory.  The numbers in black are historical data from Aixtron's annual reports. The red numbers in 2024 are implied projections.  

Is 2024 turning into an exceptional year?  The inventories expensed each year is always bigger than the yearend total inventories  the year before.  A 2023 yearend 395m total inventories imply 395m/40%= 988m future sales.  You make the call.


 

It stands for work in process reported in the annual reports.  Here I add all the items excluding the raw materials and Supplied under inventories.  

the date. Future sales of 988m is not possible no matter how conservative aix management is. Unless, you mean by "future" a timeline of couple of years.  

@fel, thank you for sharing your thoughts on the valuation of the stock and analysis.

Recently, I have spent also some time thinking about this. In addition I would say that also the price-to-book ration 2023 of 3.33 appears moderate comparing to the last several years, expecting even lower value for 2024 at the current stock price.
All in all my gut feeling tells me that now is the moment to buy more Aix stocks or at least we are near the point where one can buy with enough safety margin over a horizon of 1 or 2 years.
As to the catalyst needed for the turnaround you mentioned, I believe that sometimes the stock price and valuation can be catalyst enough to do the job. At least, I observed this multiple times over the years.
Other than that I don't expect any stock price driver before Q2 reporting. Q1 report is just to close to the '23 report to have any stock moving news in terms of guidance change (but one never knows). I think even if with not so good Q2 report the price of the stock might keep the level and falling further.

Latest in the range of 20 EUR/share I consider a large order...but again, depending on the overall market condition.
If we can trust the management, and for now no reason not to do so, I think this dip can be viewed as a good mid-/long-term buying opportunity. Something tells me that latest around 20 EUR there should be a bottom. At that level the valuation gets quite attractive and some long term investors will not be able to resist.

Just sharing my thought and no intention of recommending any action to anybody.

@CWL, Baggo, fel, dlg. and all the other valuable contributors I cannot list:
Your valuable contributions are very much appreciated and I am very thankful about it!
Good luck to everyone!  

well there has to be a reason why other semi stocks rise but Aixtron goes downhill. it's a bit frustraiting.

 

https://www.ariva.de/news/...ron-unter-druck-exane-bnp-sieht-11205908

..."Der Grund sei, dass Hersteller von Elektronikchips von der Produktion von Wafern mit einem Durchmesser von 150 Millimeter auf solche mit 200 Millimeter übergingen, erklärt der Experte. Daher dürften sie anfangs vor allem auf Einzelwafer-Anlagen setzen, statt auf Anlagen für die Massenproduktion, also auf Batch-Anlagen, in denen mehrere Wafer gleichzeitig beschichtet werden."...

Ich hätte gedacht, dass genau deswegen Aix Kunden gewinnen sollte - eben wegen des Übergangs zu 200 mm wafers. Die Begründung kann ich nicht nachvollziehen. Ich glaube nicht, dass  man eine Produktion aufbauen will, indem man zuerst probeweise Einzelwafer Reaktoren nimmt und erst dann auf Batch umsteigt. Bin kein Fachmann aber mein gesunder Verstand geht nicht mit.  

Hi all,

a quick post as I have lots of other things to do. Happy to go into detail if required at a later stage.

Firstly, I strongly stick with my valuation thoughts that I have posted a couple of days ago. I think that Aixtron will most likely achieve the mid-point of the guided revenue and EBIT margin range, maybe even the upper end of the revenue guidance. That is important.

So what is going on with the stock?

There are a number of concerns at the moment: 1. A slowdown in SIC / EV demand; 2. Worries about market share losses in SIC in general (and even customer losses), fueled by some customers moving from 150mm to 200mm wafer size; 3. Uncertainty around MicroLED; 4. Risks around the Q1 results (due 25.04.).

On customer losses. I dont think that the rumours around potentially losing Wolfspeed / OnSemi are correct. But I cant negate those. But I dont think it makes a lot of sense.

On Micro LED. Yes, AMS Osram stopped the project, but Aixtron obviously showed a supplier excellence award by BOE.. so clearly some of Aixtron projects are making progress. I see little risk here, but these are single projects, no volume business.. so does not need to recurr in 2025 but only when customers have really broken through the challenges in the technology.

On Q1 results - and I think these are again the biggest risks right now. H1-24 faces tough comparables for order intake so that order intake in H1 may well decline somewhat, -5-10%. The market will and does not like that as it couples with the worries around EV/SIC etc. In other words: declining orders (even if from a high base) will provide no arguments against the worries by the market. This means it will take time for the worries to be negated.. the comparable base is low in Q3.. but that will only be reported in November. So some limbo / uncertainty until then... annoying!
BUT: The company only needs around ? 280m orders in Q1 + Q2 to achieve the upper end of the revenue guidance for 2024. And I think that is doable. But not sure if the market takes this perspective anytime soon. At least it provides conviction for those who are invested (like me).
We know Q1 sales, probably 110m (100-120m guided range). EBIT is probably somewhere around 10m (at least that is what I hope, given the higher sales number). But in the end, EBIT is not key for me as Q1 is a seasonally small quarter.

So I am looking for clear signs of confidence by the management to provide indications on strong orders in the coming quarters and negate the market fears.

Against the fears, a potential upgrade in analyst revnue estimates (will not happen shor-term) coupled with a low valuation (which I described before) usually provides solid fuel for a share price. So this is my conviction. My consequence therefore is to add to my position everytime the stock dips by another -5%.. and trust in the CEOs words of solid high single digit growth again in 2025..

But watch out for Q1.. as we know from Aixtron, the stock can swing quite a bit around earnings days..

One last comment on valuation, e.g. where can be the trough. In 2017-22 the share price traded at a trough in the range of 2-3x book value. Based on the 2023 results book value is ? 6.90, giving a range of ? 14- 21.. Of course I think that Aixtron today is in much better shape than in that time frame. But supports my point of valuation above.

Regards,
Fel


 

nicht böse gemeint - aber ihr hockt hier schon in eurer Blase.  

Experten halt unter sich - Sentiment ausblenden,  wer anderer Meinung ist: ausblenden...

 

PlayNitride to triple wafer capacity in 2024, projects MicroLEDs to cost less than OLEDs by 2030

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20240416PD202/...y-microled-cost.html  

Edited News from Taiwan:

PlaNitride (6854) held a corporate briefing yesterday (15th).

Chairman Li Yunli said that he continues to be optimistic about the development of the Micro LED industry this year. Many customers are preparing for shipment this year. In addition to TVs, other applications are also being fermented. However, the biggest key market is the TV market; the other is head-mounted displays, and As for smart watches, customers are continuing to prepare for shipments and are optimistic that overall revenue will maintain multiple growth.

PlayNitride completed the construction of a production line in cooperation with Epistar at the end of last year and opened production capacity in the second quarter of this year; PlayNitride also cooperated with AUO last year and is expected to open production capacity in the third quarter of 2025.

Investors are concerned about the impact of the cancellation of cooperation between Osram and Apple on the introduction of Micro LED into Apple Watch. Li Yunli responded that Apple's stopping of independent research and development does not mean that it will not use Micro LED. It is expected that the customer (note from me: I believe he meant Apple) may start to look for other suitable supply chains, and this matter may be accelerated. With the development of Micro LED, from PlayNitride's perspective, the industry will move toward healthy development.

Li Yunli said that it will continue to reduce the cost of Micro LED to increase market penetration. Nichuang's goal is to expand revenue scale and help build an industrial ecosystem.  

Vishay has an aggressive SiC plan.

From Vishay's 4/2/2024 presentation.  

Each G10-SiC loads six 8" wafers per run and can make ~4 runs per day.  Monthly it makes about 720 8" wafers.

30K  8" SiC wafers monthly capacity will need  about 30,000/720= 42 G10-SiC.

3 phase capacity expansion to reach 100k/month capacity will need 100,000/720=140 G10-SiC
 

great research!!!

What would we do without your valuable input and expertise??

Best regards
baggo-mh

PS. Hauck & Aufhäuser has initiated Aixtron coverage today with BUY and a PT of 29,50.
Deutsche Bank - BUY and PT 34.

 

https://ir.vishay.com/static-files/...f08-f205-408a-830f-e208a8e730a8  

G10-SiC tools should be delivered and installed by the end of Q3 for the Q4'24 start.

?We are very grateful for the opportunity to partner with Vishay and deliver our state-of-the-art epi production system with flexible 150 & 200 mm SiC wafer configuration for Vishay?s automotive-certified Newport fab in South Wales. Our strong customer service team in the South Wales Compound Semiconductor Cluster is dedicated to fully support the production ramp of Vishay?s SiC inhouse epitaxy to the highest productivity within a short period of time.?, said Dr. Frank Wischmeyer, Vice President SiC, AIXTRON SE.

 

your research work is ;)
Thanks!
I am excited about the call tomorrow. I expect a clear statement from the management on the market acceptance of G10-SiC. Albeit we have already heard such statements, I believe a reiteration after the rumors (spread intentionally I believe) would be very much appreciated.