Drooy Panic

By: Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action


I have great difficulty in controlling my usual clinically analytical demeanour when attempting to analyse the events of the past few days with the DROOY share price.



Last Thursday the anticipated poor results from Durban Deep were announced and the share price on the JSE drifted slightly. Later that day a mining website clarioned a headline around the world that Durban Deep was ?technically bankrupt?. This sensationalistic headline triggered an avalanche of panic selling in the US as investors ditched stock in the fear of losing everything if the mine, as was implied by the headline, was ready to go into immediate closure. Some 42 million shares changed hands. This represented 17% of the total issued share capital of the mine. Some panic!



I regard the article headline on the website to be one of the worst examples of irresponsible sensationalist journalism that I have ever come across. The author took two words out of the mouth of a respected Johannesburg analyst and blazoned it across the world as the final nail in the coffin of Durban Deep. Actions of this kind may create once off hits on a site but I doubt if this site will ever again be considered as a responsible and balanced reporter of mining affairs.



The term ?technical bankruptcy? is not a standard condition of the South African mining industry but it is certainly a frequently over stated press headline when difficulties arise in a mine. If we go back to November 2000 when Durban Deep was trading at its major low of R4.30 the headlines again blazoned that it was ?technically bankrupt?. It promptly rose 1200% as it rocketed up to R55. In the middle of last year another gold mining house stock, JCI, was headlined all over the Johannesburg press as being ?technically bankrupt?. It is still operating and the price has appreciated.



Many South African mines hit the condition of ?technical bankruptcy? at the end of major bear markets. Any investigative journalist delving through past mining headlines will find numerous examples of this statement for mines that are still in operation. Marginal mines have in the past often been classified as ?technically bankrupt?. I wonder how many Canadian juniors would fit this classification. But because the internet slammed these sensationalistic headlines around the world in a split second the reaction was immediate and catastrophic panic. Yes, I believe that the share price collapse was unmitigated panic from uninformed US investors emotionally reacting to an irresponsible headline that implied Durban Deep was ready for immediate closure.



My contacts have detailed that if Durban Deep sold all its loss making South African mines for only R1, the share price based solely on the Australasian operations would be valued at least double the current price!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



One Gold Fund manager has stated that there will be no buyers for the DROOY operations in South Africa. It is common knowledge in the JSE that negotiations have been underway with a junior miner to take over the loss making mines. I believe that the negative cash flow elements of Durban Deep will be eventually taken over.



Do not forget that Durban Deep is the tenth largest producer of gold in the world. A loss of that amount of gold into the market by any closure of DROOY would send the gold price into orbit.



Technically DROOY is in a MASSIVE buying area. Any weakening of the Rand back above R6.10 to the dollar and strengthening of the Rand price of gold above R2580 Rands an ounce will lead to a serious and sudden reversal of trend for Drooy. This stock may be ?technically bankrupt? but is unlikely to go out of business.



Knee jerk share price reactions to sensationalistic headlines are dangerous and rarely last.



Forget the panic and buy this ridiculously cheap stock. Last Friday 42 million DROOY shares may have been sold. But remember that for every share sold there was a buyer!



Dr. Clive Roffey

February 26th

Johannesburg

-- Posted Monday, February 28 2005

hxxp://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/1109602803.php  

MINEWEB: We all know the market is very well aware of the troubles in the South African operations, and you have previously, I think it was last week, talked about a 60-day operational review process that is taking place in the North West operations. It?s early days, but how is that going so far?

ILJA GRAULICH: The process is going very well. I hate to sort of blow our own trumpet, but we have done four of these in the past. So we do consider ourselves experts in the Section 189 process, and we have successfully in the past come through these processes, interestingly enough with not a single minute of strike action from the workers. The process has run in the past very smoothly, so I think we have a very good idea of what we need to go through. We have had a number of stakeholder meetings, having said that, last week and also this week, and we obviously will continue with those meetings as the process rolls on, while at the same time being well aware of the events of yesterday.

MINEWEB: What is the process ? what has to play out?

ILJA GRAULICH: The process is that it is 60 days of reassessing what is happening at the operations. Facilitated meetings are being held between labour, management, through the CCMA. All parties look at possibilities of trying to save the mine, trying to minimise any possible job losses that could occur and hopefully at the end come out with a negotiated outcome that is best for all parties concerned.

MINEWEB: What are some of the options for the operations?

ILJA GRAULICH: We have indicated in the past, also at our quarterly results, that we have highly profitable surface operations. And we are possibly looking at balancing out the surface and the underground operations a little bit further, in the sense that our underground operations could be slightly reduced, while the surface operations could provide the necessary cash flow to keep the operation going, and to keep those reserves that we have in the ground alive as long as possible. Obviously there are other permutations ? an outright sale is obviously one of them, or a complete closure. Obviously those are the extremes of the number of options that we have available.
 

"Am I concerned about DROOY, yes! Do I believe that it is going bust, a resounding NO. Technical bankruptcy is a common phraseology used to describe the marginal mines when the gold price sinks below their costs of production. Any investigative journalist will find numerous references to this state at the lows of previous bear markets. It is not an unusual occurrence to refer to a marginal miner as technically bankrupt in bear markets.""  

By: Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action

"Without doubt the talking point of the last two weeks was the catastrophic sell off in the share price of Durban Deep. This was precipitated by a sensationalistic headline on a mining website describing Durban Deep as ?technically bankrupt? that left readers with the clear impression that DROOY was in imminent danger of closure and that investors would lose their investments. The high cost marginal mining deep level South African operations are certainly haemorrhaging cash at the current Rand price of gold. But it is common knowledge amongst the Johannesburg invest fraternity that DROOY has been negotiating with several other miners to take over the loss making operations. If this is achieved, even at zero income for the assets, the Australasian operations are worth about R11 a share compared to the current R5.50 per share. So at this point of time the investors are getting the Australasian operations at an extremely low price."  

MINEWEB: And for the outright sale, have you explored any potential buyers?

ILJA GRAULICH: You know, I know as much about outright sales as I read in the media. A lot of people have made a lot of noises in the media, but unfortunately we haven't received any faxes through our system as of yet, from people wanting to put a serious offer on the table.  

But the biggest chart break of the week was undoubtedly the push by the Rand price of gold above the critical R2580 an ounce level. This shot up to touch R2700. This break indicates an end to the three year bear market in the Rand price of gold and triggers a near term count to at least R3100. This is well above the Durban Deep break even of R2920.

All the gold shares reversed off their bases that had been forming for the past six months and to which I have drawn your attention on numerous occasions. This movement, like that of the Rand price of gold, has broken several critical resistance levels and indicates that the bear market that started in April 2002 is over. I will again place on record that a resumption of the major bull trend MUST take the share prices to well above their previous highs made in April 2002. And that includes Durban Deep!!

...

In the last issue I detailed the extreme importance of the R2580 resistance level on the Rand price of gold. I have illustrated the triangular pattern on many occasions. Last week the price not only broke above the critical R2580 level but shot right through to the R2700 mark. This is a MAJOR upside breakout. It has enormous implications for all the South African gold stocks and Durban Deep in particular. Both Goldfields and Harmony have already reacted with large price surges. Durban Deep's share price still reflects the negativity that was generated around this stock. But if my upside target of R3100 is reached within the next six months, as I expect, then Durban Deep will be making group profits and will go down in stock market history as one of the fastest moving recovery stocks ever!!

hxxp://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/roffey032105.html  

DRDGOLD to liquidate North West mines
David McKay
Posted: Tue, 22 Mar 2005

[miningmx.com] -- DRDGOLD has today applied to liquidate its operating shafts in South Africa?s North West province (Blyvoor and Harties) in a step that saves the group from bankruptcy but cedes a third of its 15 million in gold reserves. The decision is likely to stir the ire of unions as some 5,600 jobs have been placed in jeopardy.

The application to liquidate the mines also opens the door for an offer from Simmers & Jack, a small gold mining company that said at the weekend it was preparing to table an offer for the shafts on Friday. ?If anybody wants to buy the assets, they can make a bid that way [through the liquidators],? said Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD.

Roger Kebble, chairman of Simmers & Jack, told news service, Bloomberg, that he was already preparing a bid: "We're working on some models now and we'll come up with a proposal,'' he said. Kebble said the North West province assets would be "reorganised".

mehr:

hxxp://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/426607.htm

DRDGold to Shut 2 South African Mines, Cut 6,000 Jobs (Update3)

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- DRDGold Ltd., South Africa's fourth- largest gold producer, will shut two mines in North West province, eliminating 6,000 jobs, after an earthquake raised costs and the rand's gains slashed profit.

``It's a case of risk and return, and we can see high risk for little or no return,'' Chief Executive Officer Mark Wellesley- Wood said today from DRDGold's headquarters in Johannesburg. ``The earthquake was just the last straw.''

The March 9 tremor killed two people at the Buffelsfontein and Hartebeesfontein mines and left parts of the underground shafts damaged beyond repair. The company already had fired 7,000 workers in South Africa as the rand more than doubled against the dollar in three years, cutting profit for companies that pay costs in the currency and sell metal for dollars.

``The earthquake was the final nail in the coffin,'' said Brenton Saunders, head of research at Deutsche Securities in Johannesburg. ``But if you take a step back, the real reason has been the rand-gold price.''

DRDGold stopped production at the mines and will ask South Africa's High Court to liquidate the North West unit that runs them, Wellesley-Wood said. The company guaranteed all payments through the end of the month, including wages, and will pay North West's debts with proceeds from asset sales and an insurance claim, he said.

mehr:

hxxp://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=abADW5xTRroE  

PAC urges govt to intervene in DRDGold crisis

March 23, 2005, 14:45

Themba Godi, the deputy president of the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), has called on the department of minerals and energy to intervene in DRDGold's decision to liquidate its North West operations. Godi says they put the blame on lack of creative management.

DRDGold's decision came after an earthquake killed two miners at one of its North West shafts and caused extensive damage. About 6 000 miners are expected to lose their jobs.

hxxp://www.sabcnews.com/economy/business/0,2172,100619,00.html  

Letters to Shareholders

Surviving slings and arrows ? and setting the record straight

Dear Shareholder

When I wrote to you in our Investor Brief last week, I thought we had just survived some of the toughest times at DRDGOLD, but I must admit now that the last 48 hours have been even tougher.

The decision we took to provisionally liquidate our North West Operations has been amongst the toughest I have been party to as a chief executive.

Nevertheless, my Board and I believe emphatically that it was the right decision and that DRDGOLD and all of its stakeholders will emerge the stronger for it. We will be well placed to take advantage of what we still see as just the beginning of a gold bull run.

It has been disappointing, nonetheless, that the company has been attacked from various quarters during its attempts to resolve the North West Operations? difficulties and for its final decision to provisionally liquidate.

It would be easy to turn the other cheek but I am concerned that there are shareholders at some remove from the heat so to speak, who may be disconcerted by the vitriol, which is simply not supported by fact.

Safety:

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), representative of most of our employees, has castigated us in the South African media for our safety record.

The fact is, official Government statistics prove that DRDGOLD recorded the lowest fatality rate in the whole of the South African gold mining industry last year. Then, as we reported in the Investor Brief last week, Blyvooruitzicht mine has just won, for the seventh time in a row, the West Rand Mine Managers? Inter-mine Safety Competition. Such awards and achievements do not come easily, but are the result of hard work and dedication by all of our employees.

I must re-state, in this context, a primary motivation for our provisional liquidation of the North West Operations: that is, our firm conviction that continued exploitation of high-grade pillar panels amid continuing incidences of seismicity was simply untenable from a safety point of view.

Pay:

The NUM has accused us of being the worst payer in the South African mining industry.

The fact is, our pay scales are absolutely in line with those of the rest of industry. More specifically, our minimum wage rates, signed off by our primary detractor in this, are the same as those of our competitors. In fact, our workforce at the Harties section of the provisionally liquidated North West Operations was the second highest paid in the country.

Our commitment to South Africa:

The North West Operations? provisional liquidation has served as yet another opportunity for our detractors to question our patriotism and commitment to South Africa while they continue to ignore the simple unsustainability of a business that has continued to lose more than R20 million a month ? a business in which DRDGOLD in recent months for many reasons ? including its commitment to this country ? has invested more than R280 million with absolutely no return.

They choose also to ignore the investment we have taken in the country, averaging over R120m a year in new capital expenditure over the last five years, sustaining profitable gold production of over 400 000 ounces a year and securing 6 500 jobs.

When everyone else, including the South African Government, had turned its back on one of the South African gold mining industry?s most notorious of ?Cinderellas? ? East Rand Proprietary Mines, it was DRDGOLD and its Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) partner, Khumo Bathong Holdings, that came to the final rescue.

Together, we have nursed the mine through fires, seismicity, industrial action and general pariah status, back to profitability. And all for a total investment of R160m that has ultimately secured some 2 300 jobs.

We?re proud, too, that we were the first South African mining company to secure a BEE transaction.

Wherein, then, lies the substance for accusations of unpatriotic behaviour and lack of commitment to South Africa? Because we have diversified our mining activities to Australasia? Surely this should be a source of national pride, not denigration. Were it not for the profits generated by these overseas assets, our South African assets would have been considerably worse off as they struggle to cope with the strong Rand and consequent low Rand gold price inflicted upon them.

Enough said. I hope the foregoing helps allay any concerns you may have about the current storm that surrounds us. I take some heart from the fact that the dramatic improvement in the company?s share price in the last 24 hours points to a fairly thoroughgoing level of support and understanding amongst the investing comm-unity.

Regards,

Mark Wellesley-Wood
Chief Executive Officer


24 March 2005  

Bellwether Report Does Due Diligence on DROOY
03/23/2005 14:04
TORONTO -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 03/23/05 -- The Bellwether Report is the leading online financial newsletter, focusing on small-cap emerging growth opportunities. We strive to introduce investors to truly undervalued opportunities in a time-friendly fashion, allowing for optimal entry points and profitable exit points. Today, we will be tracking the following companies to gauge the short term sentiment of their market:

DRDGold Limited was up 14% following the companys recent release of its 2004 fourth quarter and year end results.

hxxp://portfolios.abcnews.go.com/quotes?tid=DROOY&tab=news&headline=no&source=MarketWire&path=/MarketWire/20050323/083281.xml  

Bad blood rising
David McKay
Posted: Mon, 04 Apr 2005

[miningmx.com] -- THE five-year relationship between Mark Wellesley-Wood, CEO of DRDGOLD, and Roger Kebble, chairman of Randgold & Exploration, is as incredible as it?s acrimonious.

...

Now, finally, the rebranded DRDGOLD has the chance to establish a track record of making profits rather than headlines.

...

hxxp://www.miningmx.com/commentary/429712.htm  

Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action

Durban Deep continues to hit the headlines. This time it is the proposed take over bid by the Kebble?s through the vehicle of Simmer and Jack of the newly liquidated Buffelsfontein section of Durban?s northwest sector. As would be expected the proposed bid from an antagonist has been immediately rejected.

mehr:

hxxp://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/1112627673.php  

Backs to the wall

"NWO had been losing R20m/month and was being restructured when the mines were hit by a bad earthquake which damaged shaft infrastructure. That was the final straw. DRDGOLD had pumped R280m into NWO over 18 months to keep it going. The board decided it would put in no more.

It was a hard-line decision but one the shareholders clearly approve of. Removing NWO restores DRDGOLD to profitability immediately, and the administrative and management burden of dealing with the loss-making shafts is shifted to the liquidator.

The bulk of DRDGOLD's shares trade on the Nasdaq, where the price rose 24% from US84c to $1,04 in the two days after the announcement. On the JSE last Wednesday, DRDGOLD shares rose 15% to 570c during a trading session where all the main gold counters dropped."

hxxp://www.netassets.co.za/equities/nanews/...asp?websitecontentitemID=41182

 

DRDGOLD to raise R180.4 mln by issuing shares
Tue Apr 5, 2005 09:20 AM ET
JOHANNESBURG, April 5 (Reuters) - South African gold miner DRDGOLD (DRDJ.J) said on Tuesday it planned to raise 180.4 million rand ($29.07 million) through the issue of new shares.

The main reason for raising funds was to address concerns by its auditors KPMG that a lack of cash might threaten the viability of the company, a statement said.

DRDGOLD, which changed its name from Durban Roodepoort Deep, is South Africa's fourth largest gold producer.

hxxp://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?dui­d=mtfh38065_2005-04-05_13-20-44_jat001694_newsml  

"The good news is that, technically speaking, there is evidence to suggest DROOY is not on its way to the grave. There is in fact a promising hidden-pivot support not far below current levels, and you can take advantage of it by bidding as I?ve detailed in today?s advisory, using a stop-loss as tight as four cents. This trade is ideal for anyone looking to leverage a possible turnaround in the mining stocks without risking the farm."

hxxp://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1112882400.php  

DRDGOLD -- third quarter activity report
Following a year in which the company distinguished itself with an outstanding safety performance, the quarter under review has seen a disheartening deterioration, specifically at the South African operations. The deaths of five employees were recorded in work-related incidents: four at the North West Operations and one at East Rand Proprietary Mines Ltd (`ERPM`). An enquiry into the deaths of two employees at the North West Operations in an underground transport-related incident attributed the cause to deliberate non-compliance with safety policies and procedures. Two employees died in the earthquake that struck the North West Operations on 9 March 2005, and the fatality at ERPM was similarly seismicity-related. The exposure of employees to seismicity risk was a factor in the decision to apply for the provisional liquidation of Buffelsfontein Gold Mines Ltd. A consequence of these fatalities is a renewed focus on both behaviour-based training and underground support standards. Encouragingly, investigations in the aftermath of a seismic event at Blyvooruitzicht Gold Mining Company Ltd`s (`Blyvoor`) No. 5 Shaft during February revealed that underground support was up to standard and the particular efficacy of the rapid-yielding hydraulic props that had been applied extensively.

Production
Gold production for the quarter was 16% lower at 187 651 ounces (5 836kg). This reflects a decline in gold production at both the North West Operations in South Africa and at the Australasian operations of 37% and 10% respectively. The North West Operations continued to experience a series of reversals during the quarter and the holding company, Buffelsfontein Gold Mines Ltd, was put into provisional liquidation on 22 March, 2005. Continued, successful implementation of the new mining plan at Blyvoor in South Africa, however, resulted in a 6% increase in gold production to 39 995 ounces (1 244kg), thus restoring the mine to breakeven.

Costs
Ongoing cost improvements at Blyvoor are encouraging, restoring the mine to profitability. Higher world oil prices, however, impacted negatively on cost at the Australasian operations.

Financial
Cash and cash equivalents increased to R145.8m from R143.1m in the previous quarter and the current ratio improved to 1.12 from 0.84.

Gold market review
The average gold price received for the quarter, while virtually unchanged in US dollar terms at USD431 per ounce (USD433), was 2% lower in rand terms at R83 341 per kilogram (R84 843) due to the sustained strength of the South African currency. Consequently, all of the company`s South African operations faced continued rand-driven revenue and cost pressures. Overall, volumes in the gold market have been flat globally, while lending rates available from Central Banks have reached historic lows, a clear indication that hedging as an instrument has all but lost its lustre in the current environment. These are encouraging facts and it provides further evidence in management`s continued belief in a higher gold price. Management are also encouraged by the decision last week of the South African Reserve Bank to lower interest rates by 50 basis points. The continued high interest rates environment in South Africa has had a dramatically negative effect on the local currency and thus the export sector, which has suffered under a strong rand.

Corporate developments
All efforts in the quarter under review have been directed at restoring the company as a whole - and its South African operations in particular - to stability following a dismal, preceding six months. Undoubtedly, the most far- reaching development was the provisional liquidation of Buffelsfontein Gold Mines Ltd and the consequent discontinuation of mining at the North West Operations. The effect of this was to immediately staunch the unsustainable drain on DRDGOLD`s resources, thus providing a platform for recovery and future growth. Other measures taken to reach this stage have included a 30% reduction in DRDGOLD`s corporate headcount, a 50% cut in corporate costs and the sale of the company`s Johannesburg corporate office.

During the quarter DRDGOLD focused on its funding requirements:

R38m was received from Consolidated African Mines/JCI Ltd in respect of an outstanding legal dispute; and
a subscription agreement was entered into with Baker Steel Capital Managers LLP (`BSCM`) on behalf of BSCM clients. In terms of this, DRDGOLD will raise, in aggregate, R93.5m through the issue of new, ordinary, no par value shares in the stated capital of DRDGOLD to BSCM clients through a specific issue of shares for cash.
an underwriting agreement to raise R86.9m through the issue of new ordinary no par value shares in the stated capital of DRDGOLD through a claw-back offer.

Board changes
Mr Ian Murray has resumed the role of Chief Financial Officer to DRDGOLD with effect from 8 March 2005, while continuing with his corporate development duties. Ms Andrea Townsend has resigned as the Group Company Secretary to DRDGOLD with effect from 31 March 2005. DRDGOLD`s Assistant Legal Advisor, Mr Themba John Gwebu, has been appointed the Group Company Secretary with effect from 1 April 2005.  

DRDGold looks to stretch BEE

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) --DRDGold, the South African and Australasian gold producer, says it aims to stretch its empowerment credentials over all its South African operations instead of bulk BEE at specific mines.

Khumo Bathong Holdings (KBH), DRD?s black empowerment partner at its Crown Gold Recoveries is the proposed empowerment partner that will acquire 15% of the South African assets.

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/466610.htm

 

Deal makes DRDGold compliant with the mining charter

July 29, 2005

By Nicky Smith

Johannesburg - DRDGold, the marginal gold producer, said yesterday that it had signed an equity participation agreement that made all its local operations compliant with the mining charter's empowerment obligations.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=563&fArticleId=2644369

 

DRDGOLD split will create ?truly African? miner

$\Charlotte Mathews

Resources Editor

THE restructuring of DRDGOLD into two separate entities, DRD SA and DRD Australasia, will put the local company in a position to exploit new opportunities in a number of African countries, DRDGOLD chairman Paseka Ncholo said yesterday.

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/companies.aspx?ID=BD4A84642

 

hmmm  

hmmm.