...wir können wohl nur beten, dass dieses feindliche Zins-Umfeld für all solche stark zinsabhängigen Werte wie die ganze clean tech Branche endlich bald endet, sonst gibt es hier keine chance auf Erholung.
Eigentlich liegt die Inflation in den USA bereits unter 2% und es gibt durchaus Hoffnung auf eine Zinswende ab März, hier ist es grob erklärt...
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/...-fed-cut-mike-dolan-3275693A 'wedge' between CPI and PCE appears to be widening.
So much so that many banks and traders slicing and dicing inflation stats quickly homed in on the likelihood that six-month annualised 'core' PCE inflation is now falling below the Fed's 2% target.
That price picture was enough to prompt Barclays this week to bring forward its forecast for the first Fed rate cut to March from June - as it now sees annualised core PCE for the second half of 2023 as low as 1.9% compared with an equivalent CPI measure still over 3%.
UBS economists similarly now see the six-month annualised core PCE inflation rate as low as 1.8% - almost a third of its peak at 5.9% in March 2022.
And while many forecasters warn these measures could pop back slightly above 2% again in the first few months of 2024, most, including Morgan Stanley, are also cutting their full year 2024 core PCE outlooks.
These shifting sands mean that, regardless of the date of the first cut, the total amount of easing priced for 2024 has now moved consistently back above 150 basis points (bps) - twice Fed indications from last month and 15 bps up from the start of January.
And many also point out that if you watch other momentum indicators - three-month or even one-month annualised core PCE rates - they have been under 2% since the middle of last year.
"Eventually the Fed is going to realize that it is behind the curve, just as it did on the other side of this cycle," wrote Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors. "The Fed can maintain all it wants that 'inflation is still too high' but that's just a delusion that ignores the fact that inflation has been actually running at or below target for seven months."