Hi CWL,
I fully agree with your assessment and I personally think that a) there will be a signficant impact to Global growth (e.g. China output in Feb is probably -60-80% yoy), b) some industries will be massively impacted (e.g. China travel retail (e.g. L'Oreal), Commodities (short-term), Luxury or Beer/Spirits spending in China in Q1), others less so (e.g. Global consumer staples like Nestle, Coke etc;) and generally less China exposed companies; c) the stock market has been complacent to some extend but the recent move is mainly hysteria driven, e.g. responding to cases in Italy.
Nevertheless, remember that the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
Given yesterday's move in share prices, I expect uncertainty to linger over stocks, e.g. no short-term recovery until the narrative around the virus changes, which I believe should happen around April/May time when the usual flue season tails off.
Within that mix, companies have 0 visibility at the moment and we are hearing, that decision making on projects is being delayed (e.g. look at what the larger German machine builders are saying). For that reason there is no incentive for CEO's to be bullish in their guidance, think about it, they only have downside risk.
For that reason, Aixtron guidance will be conservative as always and probably suffering from some delays in projects (including OVPD). Plus stock price being driven by emotions but still +11% ytd vs DAX now -3%, so arguably an outperformer on which people might take profits.
I am absolutely convinced of the Aixtron fundamentals but would not rule out a move back to 8.75-9 - which will then again be a good buying opportunity.
Just my thoughts.
Regards,
Fel