against all odds

Ein ideologiekritischer Makrothread, der umlaufende Lehrmeinungen wie anerkannte Basics des (Börsen-)Stammtisches unregelmässig hinterfragt und der gebotenen Dekonstruktion zuführt. Trading ja, sofern ein konträrer Ansatz und damit ein hinreichend grosses Zeitfenster gewählt wird. Newsflow nein, sofern kommentarlos und ohne kognitive Eigenleistung.

Stammtischparolen gegen 'die da oben', gegen vorgebliche Verschwörung von Zockerbanken, Regierung und Migranten, also alles, was unter negative Affirmation fällt, nein - dafür gibt es bereits hinreichend Threads.  

 

'We like to think that we carefully gather and evaluate facts and data before coming to a conclusion.  But we don?t. Instead, we tend to suffer from confirmation bias and thus reach a conclusion first.  Only thereafter do we gather facts and see those facts in such a way as to support our pre-conceived conclusions.  When a conclusion fits with our desired narrative, so much the better, because narratives are crucial to how we make sense of reality...'

'..As noted above, narratives are crucial to how we make sense of reality.  They help us to explain, understand and interpret the world around us.  They also give us a frame of reference we can use to remember the concepts we take them to represent.  Perhaps most significantly, we inherently prefer narrative to data ? often to the detriment of our understanding.  Keeping one?s analysis and interpretation of the data reasonably objective ? since analysis and interpretation are required for data to be actionable ? is really, really hard even in the best of circumstances. A corollary to this problem and to confirmation bias is what Nassim Taleb calls the ?narrative fallacy? ? looking backward and creating a pattern to fit events and constructing a story that explains what happened along with what caused it to happen...'

'..We are all prone to recency bias, meaning that we tend to extrapolate recent events into the future indefinitely. As reported by Bespoke, Bloomberg surveys market strategists on a weekly basis and asks for their recommended portfolio weightings of stocks, bonds and cash.  The peak recommended stock weighting came just after the peak of the internet bubble in early 2001 while the lowest recommended weighting came just after the lows of the financial crisis. That?s recency bias...'

'..I have written many times about the cognitive biases which plague us and make it difficult for us to make good choices, including (obviously) here.  Knowing about them is imperative if we are going to deal with them.  We would always be wise to factor in these biases when performing analysis and making decisions. Unfortunately, we all tend to share a ?bias blind spot? ? the inability to recognize that we suffer from the same cognitive distortions that plague other people. ..'

more http://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2012/07/16/...mon-behavioral-biases/

Pragmatic Capitalism (http://pragcap.com) was founded by Cullen Roche in the midst of the financial crisis of 2008. Mr. Roche foresaw many of the events that led up to the crisis and felt that the government was slow to react and when it did finally react, responded with the wrong medicine. Using his expertise in the financial markets and the monetary system, Mr. Roche provides objective answers to the world"s big macro misunderstandings.

Pragmatic Capitalism has become a place where investors, economists and laypeople can discuss complex financial issues and find answers to the ever problematic world of economics. Mr. Roche doesn"t pretend to have all the answers, but provides his expertise where possible to help others learn and become more financially aware. Ultimately, the goal of the website is to try to provide a resource for better understanding and a forum for discourse and debate ...

es nicht "Modds" heißen? ;-)  

http://pragcap.com/about

Why QE3 Won"t Expand the Circulating Money Supply

In its third round of QE, the Fed says it will buy $40 billion in MBS every month for an indefinite period. To do this, it will essentially create money from nothing, paying for its purchases by crediting the reserve accounts of the banks from which it buys them. The banks will get the dollars and the Fed will get the MBS. But the banks" balance sheets will remain the same, and the circulating money supply will remain the same.

When the Fed engages in QE, it takes away something on the asset side of the bank"s balance sheet (government securities or mortgage-backed securities) and replaces it with electronically-generated dollars. These dollars are held in the banks" reserve accounts at the Fed. They are "excess reserves," which cannot be spent or lent into the economy by the banks. They can only be lent to other banks that need reserves, or used to obtain other assets (new loans, bonds, etc.). http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/whyqe3won.php

(in Recession und postrecessiver Phase). Es ist sachlich unmöglich, dass QE Inflation triggert...

strategisch short ? noch nicht !

(laut Fed: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/...se-stimulus-interest-rate/)

The 0.13 percentage point median impact on real GDP growth fades after two years. The median effect on inflation is a mere 0.03 percentage point. To put these numbers in perspective, QE2 was announced in the fourth quarter of 2010. Real GDP growth in that quarter was 1.1% and personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI) inflation excluding food and energy was 0.8%. Our estimates suggest that, without LSAPs, real GDP growth would have been about 0.97% and core PCEPI inflation about 0.77%.

'...Den August 2014 sollten sich Anleger laut Leuschel rot im Kalender anstreichen. Zu diesem Zeitpunkte rechnet der Börsenprof mit einer großen Währungsreform. "Alles arbeitet darauf hin", so Leuschel. "Wir stehen nach wie vor zu diesem Datum, dass wir in Europa und auch weltweit eine Währungsreform haben werden.."

Roland Leuschel ist Chefstratege und Direktor der belgischen Banque Bruxelles Lambert, Gründungspartner und Mitinhaber der Vermögensverwaltung Capital at Work S.A. Leuschel hat alle Crashs und Krisen der letzten 45 Jahre exakt vorhergesagt....

Die jungen adrett gekleideten Underdogrebellen auf ihren Rollern waren mir eigentlich immer ganz sympatisch.


Fill, kann Dich leider mal wieder nicht bewerten, das alte Problem. Schade, da man so schlecht Feedback geben kann.

Viele gute und interessante Beiträge!  

ich denke, Bewertung ist hier überflüssig. Soll es doch darum gehen, Basics, idealerweise von verschiedenen Seiten, durchzukauen. Und, nebenbei, die konträre Anlagestrategie zu entwickeln und zu verfeinern. Beide Topics behandeln damit auch die umlaufenden Narrative, denn diese sind es, die die Märkte bewegen. Narrative zu verstehen, ohne ihr Gefangener zu sein oder zu werden (darauf kommt es an)...

Insofern sehe ich die ersten Postings als inhaltliche Vorgabe, deren Sinn vielleicht auch darin besteht, den Stammtisch 'abzuschrecken' ...

Sinkendes Deficit (wie jetzt) bzw 'Sparen' führt logischerweise zu sinkenden Profits, sofern ein kompensierender Anstieg im Privat Investment / Consuming ausbleibt. Veranschaulicht in der Aufschlüsselung der Profits 2011 nach Herkunft (Deficit als 'negatives Sparen' mit Doppelminus):

Die Märkte sind angesichts der PEs weder unter- noch überbewertet. Die Krux ist aber bekanntlich die, dass PE die Daten der Vergangenheit abbildet, während Kursentwicklung die - logischerweise unbekannten - Daten der Zukunft antizipiert....

Anders ausgedrückt: Wer an die Fortsetzung des Bullmarktes glaubt, glaubt daran, dass Earnings aus egal welchem Narrativ weiter anziehen werden. Die Chancen dafür stehen jedoch schlecht: Denn bleibt a makro roundabout alles beim alten, drückt das signifikant sinkende Federal Spending auf die Profits, während b bei brummenden Makroindikatoren die Refinanzierungskosten steigen und die Marge zusätzlich belasten. Option c, fallende Makroindikatoren, gibt - ohne neue Staatsknete - mE bestenfalls gehaltene Earnings her. Das Votum 'überbewertet' ist insofern nur ne Frage der Zeit...

Weil das Narrativ 'die Krise ist abgehakt' das Narrativ von den via QE 'aufgepumpten' Märkten sukzessive ersetzt, gibt es keinen Grund mehr für die Fed, an der monetären Luftnummer QE weiter festzuhalten - gebremst nur durch das immanente Motiv, berechenbar zu bleiben. Der Aktienmarkt nimmts gelassen, den er hat ja nun anderes, woran er glauben kann. 'Tapering' ist so nur mehr Menetekel für Permabären und andere inverse Monetaristen, die an der Allmacht von Zentralbanken (sprich 'Goldman') unbeirrt festhalten, weil dies konstituiv für ihre Verschwörungstheorie ist...

Loans and leases (of all types) as percentage of US banks' total balance sheets continue to decline and are now at the lowest levels in at least 40 years (since this data has been kept).Credit is being displaced by cash (reserves), as the Fed's securities purchases result is further dilution of US banks' balance sheets:

Wer glaubt, QE erzeuge 'Assetinflation', insbesondere bei Aktien,  hat damit im Euroraum ein kleines argumentatives Problem: 'The ECB"s balance sheet has shrunk by almost 1/3 in the last year, yet European equities have risen by nearly 40% over the same time frame.  Considering that balance sheet expansion is assumed to boost securities prices, one would expect balance sheet contraction to have the opposite effect...

'Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist."

'..Many talk as if banks can "lend out" their reserves, raising concerns that massive excess reserves created by QE could fuel runaway credit creation and inflation in the future. But banks cannot lend their reserves directly to commercial borrowers, so this concern is misplaced. 

Banks do need to hold reserves (as a liquidity buffer) against their deposits, and banks create deposits when they lend. But normally banks are not reserve constrained, so excess reserves do not loosen a reserve constraint.

Banks in aggregate can reduce their reserves only to the extent that they initiate new lending and the bank deposits created as a result flow into the economy as new banknotes as the public demands more of them.

QE does aim to ease financial conditions and spur more bank lending than otherwise would have occurred, but the mechanisms by which this happens are much more subtle and indirect than commonly implied.

If the excess reserves created by QE were to be associated with too much credit creation, central banks could readily extinguish them. The central bank balance-sheet mechanics of QE and how they relate to bank credit creation may sound a bit wonkish. But correctly understanding how the transmission mechanism of QE works is important.

It is fine for policymakers, economists, and market participants to disagree about the appropriateness and efficacy of QE, but at least they should do so on the basis of a correct understanding of its balance-sheet mechanics ..'

full text http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/upload/...at_After_Me_8_14_13.pdf

dass QE als monetäre Luftnummer allein vom temporär breit gepflegten Narrativ zehrte, es handle sch um einen kreditfinanzierten Eingriff der Fed in die Märkte. Mithin der Grund, dass diese nicht weiter ernsthaft auf die Diskussion über 'Tapering' reagieren wollen. Lediglich in der geschlossenen Welt der Permabären und Endzeitphilosophen wird an diesem Narrativ unbeirrt festgehalten, weil Tapering hier als letzter Joker gilt. Strategische oder antizyklische Bären sollten jedoch nicht auf diesen falschen Joker setzen...

What is Monetary Realism?

 

Monetary Realism (MR) is a description of the monetary system applicable to nations with floating exchange rates and non-convertible fiat currencies (see here for our full primer). Monetary Realism describes how a modern monetary system is a tool formed by the people of a nation that is intended to be utilized to optimize living standards.

This relationship is deep, complex and often misunderstood.  We hope to bring balance and objective insights to the discussion in order to clarify many of the misconceptions about money, economics and the monetary system.

Our goal with MR is to focus on the core operational realities of the economy while any policy ideas are entirely peripheral to MR.

At times, MR will discuss options that a government can use to benefit from this understanding of the modern monetary system, but one of our primary goals will be to distinctly differentiate policy prescriptions from descriptive aspects of the monetary system.  

While we might provide policy prescriptions at times, our primary goal here is to offer the reader a better understanding of the ways our monetary system operates.  Any policy ideas are entirely peripheral to the core understanding of the monetary system.

Our mission here is to provide an unbiased and apolitical (as best that can be achieved!) perspective of the monetary system.  

We want to educate the public so that they can obtain a better understanding of the system and make more informed decisions.  In keeping with this educational approach we hope the reader will not be afraid to offer their own policy ideas, critiques of MR and utilize the comments for furthering education.

http://monetaryrealism.com/sample-page/