China Enersave - Empfehlung durch S&P
Zu China Enersave gab es eine Empfehlung des Analystenhauses Standard & Poors (Prognose: KGV 2007 von 10, 2008 von 7,6) und einen detaillierten Artikel in Singapurs führender Wirtschaftszeitung Business Times.
Demnach ist Enersave ein näheres Hinsehen wert.
Die rasante Entwicklung der letzten Monate wird dargestellt und die Kapazitäten der bereits laufenden Kraftwerke präsentiert. Auch die Perspektiven: Drei Biomassekraftwerke sind derzeit in Bau, für weitere zehn gibt es Vorverträge. Dazu kommt noch das Potenzial aus der Umrüstung alter Kohlekraftwerke auf Biomasse. Das KGV im laufenden Jahr wird von Standard & Poor?s auf 10 und im kommenden Jahr auf 7,6 geschätzt. Der erhebliche Kapitalbedarf der Gruppe wird ebenfalls hervorgehoben. Allerdings hat Enersave kapitalkräftige Aktionäre wie die Dubai Investment Group des Regenten von Dubai, und große Private Equity-Formen wie Energy Group (Hong Kong).
Hier der Originatext das Artikels:
2. Juni 2006
China EnerSave is worthy of closer look
By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
IT is not uncommon for a company that has found its original business to be going nowhere to embark on a restructuring process and enter a new industry.
During the transition, there will be significant uncertainty about whether the company can succeed in its new venture. Lack of management expertise in the new area and the many execution problems that may crop up weigh heavily on the minds of investors.
And obviously, a new business needs time to develop - so there is no decent profit to talk about during the transition period.
All these things make investors reluctant to commit. Yet it is also at this juncture that the company needs a lot of new funds to pay for its new investments.
So, those who are willing to supply the capital at such a time can be described as early-stage financiers. And early-stage financiers come in at a risk-adjusted price. For taking on this risk, they may be rewarded with a sizable return two or three years down the road. Or they may have underestimated the risk, and two or three years on, they may get only marginal returns on their capital, or worse, suffer a capital loss.
On the other hand, fund-raising through new shares or convertible bonds dilutes future earnings and creates the spectre of a share overhang, putting a dampener on a company's market share price.
Transition
One company that is going through such a transition period is China EnerSave. When it was listed on Sesdaq in 1998 it was into electronic ballasts and home furnishings. In 2004 it dipped its toes into the energy business in China. Two years later, after it came to know about the China Renewable Energy Law, which took effect on Jan 1, 2006, it stepped up its involvement in that area.
Now China EnerSave has a 270 MW coal-fired power plant called Henan Yima Jinjiang. It acquired a 51 per cent stake in Yima in mid-Sept 2006 for US$45 million. And in the last three months of 2006, that 51 per cent stake contributed $6.3 million or 76 per cent to the group's 2006 full-year operating profit. In essence, Yima helped increased China EnerSave's 2006 net earnings to $4.8 million, from $1.1 million the year before.
Just over a month ago, China EnerSave entered into another agreement to buy over the remaining 49 per cent of Yima for US$20 million. The deal will be completed by end-July. This means the group will get 100 per cent of Yima's revenue and earnings for four months this year.
China EnerSave is also a major partner in the 2004 joint development of a greenfield project to develop a waste-to-energy plant. The 12 MW plant in Huizhou, in which it has a 71 per cent stake, started operating late last year. It will make its maiden contributions in the current financial year.
But the group's biggest bet is in biomass energy projects. It is now building three 24 MW biomass power plant projects in China. The first two - in Chengdu County and LongChang County, in Sichuan province - are scheduled for completion in 2008, while the third, in Changyi County in Shangdong, should be ready in 2009.
Tay Wee Kwang, China EnerSave's executive director, said the group has managed to negotiate with the exclusive right to run a biomass plant in each of the above counties.
Also, it has signed more than 10 exclusive memorandums of understanding to develop biomass plants with various provincial authorities in China and is carrying out feasibility studies.
To accelerate its entry into the biomass power industry, China EnerSave is looking into opportunities to acquire small coal-fired power plants that are suitable for conversion into biomass power plants.
According to Mr Tay, to build a new 24 MW biomass plant, investment of 250 million renminbi (S$50 million) and a time frame of 20 months are required. Retrofitting a coal-fired power plant into a biomass plant needs half of that investment and takes only a year.
The aim is to have 20 biomass power plants in China by the end of 2010.
The Chinese government gives a 0.25 renminbi subsidy for every kwH of electricity generated by biomass plants. Assuming that remains, and that China EnerSave can obtain the feedstock for its plants at the prices it expects, each plant can generate net earnings of about US$3.6 million, according to analysts' estimates. This includes carbon credits of US$1.1 million a year.
As the investment will be 40 per cent funded by equity, the return on equity works out to a decent 28 per cent.
In addition to these power projects, China EnerSave offers engineering services in Vietnam. In May last year,it acquired a 23 per cent equity interest in Amanda Industries Pte Ltd (AIP).
AIP owns Amanda Maintenance, Industrial, General & Offshore Services (Amigos), which operates a fabrication facility in Vietnam that serves customers worldwide from energy-related industries. Amigos's main capabilities include the fabrication of structural steel, pressure vessels and gas turbines.
Amigos had an order book of about $116 million at end-2006. And in January this year, China EnerSave raised its stake in AIP to 51 per cent.
Biomass power
Biomass power plants burn plant matter such as trees, grass, agricultural crops or waste, or other biological material in a boiler to produce high-pressure steam. This steam rotates a turbine and generates electricity.
Next to hydropower, more electricity is generated from biomass than any other renewable energy resource in the United States now.
Biomass plants are less efficient than coal-fired plants but are more friendly environmentally. Biomass does not add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere because it absorbs the same amount of carbon in growing as it releases when consumed as fuel. Its low sulphur content means biomass combustion is much less acidifying than coal combustion, for example. Also, the ashes from biomass consumption are very low in heavy metals and can be recycled.
But due to the lower efficiency of biomass, a government subsidy is required to ensure its viability. And of course, a biomass plant must ensure it has sufficient feedstock available nearby at an economical rate. An efficient collection and storage system must be in place.
Assuming the design and engineering of the plant is fine, a profitable biomass operation must also make sure the cost of getting its electricity on to the grid is not exorbitant. According to Mr Tay, China EnerSave has located its plants between 800 m and 8 km from the nearest connection points. Also, a biomass plant must have access to water.
Prospects
In a 26-page report on China EnerSave released last month, research firm Standard & Poor's forecast that the group will make a net profit of $18.6 million this year, or almost four times its earnings last year. But this assumes a 51 per cent stake in the Yima coal power plant. And 2008 will be the year when the biomass projects start to chip in to the bottom line. S&P, whose report is paid a fee by China EnerSave, reckons the group could rake in $24.5 million.
At $18.6 million forecast earnings for 2007, China EnerSave is trading at about 10 times that. And for 2008, the multiple is 7.6 times.
However, to fund its aggressive expansion, China EnerSave has had to raise funds. Earlier this year it completed a $30 million convertible note issue to Value Capital Asset Management. All the notes have since been converted to shares.
And currently, it is in the process of issuing a $50 million convertible bonds. Four months after the completion of the issue, the bonds can be converted at a 10 per cent discount to the then-traded price of the shares. So the lower the share price, the more shares the bond holders will get. However, there is a minimum conversion price.
S&P said that despite the large share issuance, China EnerSave's new projects should generate enough profits to more than make up for the dilution. 'Although its new business is not without risks, we believe the favourable medium- to long-term demand for energy in China should help mitigate some risks. While returns should converge to more normal levels of around 12 per cent internal rate of return for most power assets in China, this should be supported by stable utilisation rates and generally stable cash flow,' it said.
So on the whole, it appears that China EnerSave is worthy of closer attention. The Dubai Investment Group and Hong Kong-based private equity firm Energy Partners seem to think it's a worthwhile bet. Each owns about 11 per cent of the company. Meanwhile, one director, Tan Choon Wee, has been accumulating the shares in the open market.
Quelle: www.bull-fish.com/home/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php (Originalquelle www.business-times.com.sg nur für zahlende Abonnenten)
Gruß
Prof.Dr.Weissnix
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Rechne immer mit dem Schlimmsten...
und Du kannst nur positiv überrascht werden :-)
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