http://m.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ff018cb2-5742-11e3-9624-00144feabdc0.html Peace brings questions after potash war
By Emiko Terazono
The potash ‘war and peace’ saga between two of the world’s leading producers of the key crop nutrient appears to have reached its final chapter with the extradition of Vladislav Baumgertner, the chief executive of Uralkali, from Minsk to Moscow last week.
It was a relief for the top Russian potash group to get its executive back in the country, but industry executives and analysts are still on the edge of their seats to see how the story –which has captivated the industry and put the fertiliser on the front pages –is going to end.
For years the potash market has been dominated by two legal export cartels: BPC, representing Uralkali and Belaruskali, and Canpotex, the North American grouping of PotashCorp, Mosaic and Agrium.
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“Regaining market share and catalysing demand growth is a key part of [Uralkali’s] decision,” says Jeremy Redenius, analyst at Bernstein Research. “They will look to price again only after this volume objective is complete,” he says, forecasting potash prices to be about $300 a tonne in 2014.
“Even if the partnership comes back together again, it’s not in producers’ interest to see $450 potash,” says Oliver Hatfield at research group Integer. Many analysts believe that the easing of demand was caused by high prices above $400, which in turn led to the eventual softening of potash prices. “I think the demand side is a genuine problem,” adds Mr Hatfield.
What is clear, though, is that at current prices of $300-$350 a tonne level, many of the new entrants are unprofitable, while profit margins at high cost producers such as Germany’s K+S have been squeezed.
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