Forsys - Produktionsbeginn

Spot the uranium price
Spot uranium market for 2008 suddenly sees market balance shift to a deficit, and could be ?set for a strong rally?.

Barry Sergeant
05 Mar 2008 16:45

JOHANNESBURG - Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets is telling clients that "we think the sentiment of the uranium market has changed substantially in a very short period . . . our 2008 market balance estimate has shifted to a deficit (from a balanced market) and we think the spot market is set for a strong rally".

RBC CM puts its observations down to three recent events: Uranium One (UUU CN, C$4,90 a share) reducing production guidance from its Dominion mine in South Africa by 1,5m pounds a year; AngloGold Ashanti warning it may have to declare force majeure, and, Uranium Participation Corp. (U CN, C$11,65) buying 900 000 pounds on the spot market.

RBC CM's forecast for spot uranium prices over the next two years is $110/lb in 2008 and $100/lb in 2009. Uranium prices moved up from around $7/pound eight years ago to a peak of $136/pound in late June, 2007 and then fell sharply. This week, quotes were around $74/lb (down $1/lb on the previous week), according to Ux Consulting, a specialist uranium consultancy; peer group TradeTech this week quoted $73/lb (down $2/pound). The long term expectation for both Ux and TradeTech remains at $95/lb.

RBC CM notes a "very busy" spot uranium market over the past week, with 40% of the month's total transacted. Ux believes the market may have found its "sweet spot" between $70 and $75 per pound. Recently, suppliers have been raising prices, resulting in the increased spot price indicator. Ux believes the increased spot market activity can be read two ways: (1) the aggressive sellers are sold out and the market is firming; or (2) there was a large amount of material sold between $70 and $75 and it will take lower prices to move additional material.

Ux also notes that utilities were not the primary buyers in February (accounting for about 20%); it was rather traders, hedge funds and investment funds (eg, Uranium Participation Corp) that accounted for the bulk of activity.

Quelle:
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page66?oid=197351&sn=Detail

Uranium in 2008

FN Arena News - March 06 2008
By Greg Peel

Remember uranium? It was not that long ago the uranium price was going to the moon and every one who could lay claim to any old piece of dirt was sticking up a shingle and calling itself a uranium start-up. But while every commodity from oil, to gold, to copper and wheat has been rocketing in 2008, the uranium price has remained steadfastly depressed. No one seems much interested anymore - there are other opportunities at play - and there are plenty of small investors looking at losses in their portfolios from once promising uranium juniors (and seniors as well, for that matter). What has happened?

Well for one thing, the spot uranium price has this week increased from US$73/lb to US$74/lb. Woohoo! The longest journey begins with the first step.

And that's the way uranium experts see it. The uranium price is very unlikely to fall lower than it currently is as the market has bottomed here on a clear lack of activity amongst the real players, and the speculators have had there fun (or otherwise) for now. Uranium research service U3O8.com this week gathered together three market participants for a conflab and an airing of views. They were Nicole Adshead-Bell, an investment banker (and an Aussie) with Heywood Securities; Sean Broderick, a small cap/natural resources analyst with MoneyandMarkets.com from Jupiter (he was there to provide the universal view); and George Leary, CEO of Canadian junior Bayswater Uranium, the sponsor of the chat. (That's Jupiter, Florida, by the way).

This is a summary of the opinions expressed. (With some licence).

The uranium spot price peaked at US$138/lb in June 2007 and has declined steadily to sit uninspired at just under US$75/lb for a while now. While the initial rally up from around US$15/lb in 2004 began as the world reignited its interest in nuclear power, in the face of rising oil prices and climate change concerns, the 2006-07 acceleration came about firstly because the traditional suppliers were caught short on contract obligations for whatever reason - production problems, asleep at the wheel etc - and were forced to start buying into an already buoyant market, and secondly because the hedge fund speculators are never far behind, and they bought up a good 20% of a scarce resource and hid it under the bed.

(I would also add that resource analysts across the globe were also slow to catch on, and by the time they woke up they added to speculative euphoria by suddenly deciding the spot price was going to US$200/lb. As soon as that happened, the price peaked.)

The spot price then collapsed because (a) it had run on irrational exuberance and that always has a limit, (b) suppliers caught up with their contract obligations and (c) hedge funds were caught long. (And utilities also conspired to screw the hedge funds by simply not buying uranium for a while).

But two things have not changed - the short term and long term pictures. In the short term, inexperienced players caught up in the rush failed to realise that uranium is not like copper - it isn't purchased every day across the globe for immediate use. The nuclear reactors that are running simply place long term orders every now and again to update their stockpiles. Start-up reactors need a large amount of uranium to begin with, but then much less to keep the reaction going. On a seasonal basis, there are always periods when the buying and selling dwindles to nothing, and last year one of those time-outs was called.

The longer term picture is still one where the world is currently producing 100Mlb per annum of primary (out of the ground) uranium while consuming 160-170Mlb. With scores of new reactors planned into the next decade, that 160-170mlb figure will soon jump significantly. The shortfall is presently made up by the decommissioning of cold war nuclear arsenals in both the US and Russia. While we know that the US has about 150-160Mlb left, Russia is a bit more secretive. And the bulk of the US stockpile is unusable in today's reactors in its current form and thus requires further processing. We are also unsure just what the US government plans to do with its stockpile. It did release product onto the market last year when the price was running rampant - another factor which helped set off the correction.

But our experts all agree that spot uranium has probably reached its nadir. The first price rise in a long time - albeit one dollar - was helped by significant producer Uranium One announcing a major production shortfall. Ears pricked up among the downtrodden uranium stock holders. Indeed, a lot of uranium juniors have likely seen their share prices now oversold, suggesting the patient investor may be in for a recovery fairly soon. But there is a caveat.

One expert noted that when he attended uranium conferences early last year, they were packed with people claiming to have uranium companies when really they were no more than real estate companies. Today a lot of those pretenders no longer attend. But while more legitimate juniors might be hoping for a turnaround, the warning is for investors to pick the "real" players. They must have (a) experienced management, (b) "pounds in the ground", meaning actual reserves, and (c) cash in the bank.

That's right - the uranium sector has been hit by the credit crunch as well. With the uranium price currently depressed and interest low, some companies are struggling to raise capital or service debt. Many an IPO has now been pulled.

For the patient investor, invested in the right company, the supply-side news is encouraging, mostly because there isn't much. There have not been any really significant uranium discoveries for a while. The longer term market is really hinging on only two major projects - the start up of Canada's Cigar Lake and the expansion of Australia's Olympic Dam. Cigar Lake is still on uncertain timing since being flooded, and the Olympic Dam expansion will only occur over several years. Both projects are also facing problems of water and electricity supply, and are suffering from spiralling costs and competition for equipment and skilled labour.

There are a surfeit of minor projects heading towards start-up phase across the globe, but it takes a few years to get a uranium mine up to production and any short term global production increase will just be making up for the depletion of secondary warhead supply in the medium term anyway. The experts see the supply/demand curve as being exactly where it was in 2007 - supply will catch up and the market may go into oversupply around about 2011-15, but then demand will begin to race ahead of supply once more when all the warheads are gone and the number of new reactors accelerates..

The team also pointed out that depression in the spot price is currently being helped by a misguided belief in the speed in which planned new supply will come on. Some projects will never actually make it. Costs and funding problems will bury others. And the golden rule is that 25% of mining companies of any nature will experience at least one major production delay. That is the way of life. Once again, opportunity exists for the smart investor in the right company.

The prospect of expanding production is also encumbered when you consider there are issues in all of the world's four major uranium producers/potential producers. Canada and Australia are both under negotiation with unconvinced indigenous landowners. Both have provincial uranium mining bans in place to boot (Western Australia, Queensland, Labrador). Kazakhstan is presently re-evaluating operating licences for foreign investors, which might be a noble policy if your a Kazak but it will only slow down the county's emergence as a major producer. Niger, like many an African nation, is suffering from rebel activity.

The US is not considered a major producer, although it is quietly ramping up as well. But it has its own issues. The Navajo Nation (27,000sqm of Utah, Arizona and New Mexico) is sitting on a "mother lode" of uranium, but after mining was once conducted in the area the Navajo have said "never again".

So the signs are all good for a recovery in (quality) uranium stocks. It is unlikely that euphoria will prevail the second time around however, and the sector will experience further consolidation. The weak shall fall and the strong shall rise. And the smart investor should be rewarded for longer term patience.
http://www.fnarena.com/...sitem&n=82C32597-1871-E587-E133BC71F97946E8  

 

Recent Trades - Last 10
Time Ex Price Change Volume Buyer Seller Markers
10:50:03 T 3.22 -0.02 1,100 7 TD Sec 79 CIBC K

10:50:03 T 3.22 -0.02 100 7 TD Sec 1 Anonymous K

10:49:03 T 3.19 -0.05 1,000 1 Anonymous 79 CIBC K

10:49:03 T 3.19 -0.05 600 1 Anonymous 99 Jitney K

10:48:13 T 3.16 -0.08 400 80 National Bank 7 TD Sec K

10:47:03 T 3.16 -0.08 2,600 1 Anonymous 7 TD Sec K

10:43:10 T 3.16 -0.08 1,400 1 Anonymous 7 TD Sec K

10:29:30 T 3.17 -0.07 3,800 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

10:29:30 T 3.16 -0.08 100 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

10:23:49 T 3.13 -0.11 100 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

super gedrückt und eingesammelt!
 

Forsys Prepares for Contract Mining at Valencia
Thursday March 6, 10:47 am ET


TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - March 6, 2008) - Forsys Metals Corp. (the "Company") (TSX:FSY - News) is pleased to announce that Valencia Uranium (Pty) Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company ("VUL"), has entered into a Heads of Agreement (the "Agreement") with Basil Read (Pty) Ltd. ("Basil Read") for the provision of mining services for the Company's 100% owned Valencia Uranium Mine ("Valencia") located in Namibia, Africa. Basil Read, based in South Africa since 1952, is a diversified construction company possessing capacity, expertise and a considerable track record in the fields of building, civil engineering, structures, roads and opencast mining. Basil Read is currently performing select contract mining services across southern Africa, including the Rossing Uranium Mine, located approximately 35 km from Valencia.
Pursuant to the Agreement, VUL and Basil Read have entered into negotiations on the commercial terms for the provision of mining and construction services for the establishment and operation of Valencia. Priorities at Valencia which will be addressed immediately by Basil Read and the VUL include the development of a mining plan, mining programme and a mining budget. These services will be provided by Basil Read (Namibia) Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Basil Read.

Mr. Duane Parnham, Forsys President & CEO stated: "The relationship with Basil Read brings operational expertise with relevant experience directly related to the conditions at Valencia. This represents another important step forward in the continued development of the Valencia Uranium Mine."

On Behalf of the Board of Directors of Forsys Metals Corp.

Duane Parnham, President and CEO

For further information visit our web site at www.forsysmetals.com.

Sedar Profile #00008536

Shares Outstanding: 76,838,998

The Toronto Stock Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.



Contact:
Bruce Hall
Forsys Metals Corp.
Chief Communications Officer
(905) 844-4646
Email: bhall@forsysmetals.com

Forsys Metals Corp.
In Namibia:
+264 61 219 462
Email: wrn@forsysmetals.com
Website: www.forsysmetals.com
 

Spot the uranium price

Spot uranium market for 2008 suddenly sees market balance shift to a deficit, and could be “set for a strong rally”.

Barry Sergeant
05 Mar 2008 16:45

JOHANNESBURG - Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets is telling clients that "we think the sentiment of the uranium market has changed substantially in a very short period . . . our 2008 market balance estimate has shifted to a deficit (from a balanced market) and we think the spot market is set for a strong rally".

RBC CM puts its observations down to three recent events: Uranium One (UUU CN, C$4,90 a share) reducing production guidance from its Dominion mine in South Africa by 1,5m pounds a year; AngloGold Ashanti warning it may have to declare force majeure, and, Uranium Participation Corp. (U CN, C$11,65) buying 900 000 pounds on the spot market.

RBC CM's forecast for spot uranium prices over the next two years is $110/lb in 2008 and $100/lb in 2009. Uranium prices moved up from around $7/pound eight years ago to a peak of $136/pound in late June, 2007 and then fell sharply. This week, quotes were around $74/lb (down $1/lb on the previous week), according to Ux Consulting, a specialist uranium consultancy; peer group TradeTech this week quoted $73/lb (down $2/pound). The long term expectation for both Ux and TradeTech remains at $95/lb.


RBC CM notes a "very busy" spot uranium market over the past week, with 40% of the month's total transacted. Ux believes the market may have found its "sweet spot" between $70 and $75 per pound. Recently, suppliers have been raising prices, resulting in the increased spot price indicator. Ux believes the increased spot market activity can be read two ways: (1) the aggressive sellers are sold out and the market is firming; or (2) there was a large amount of material sold between $70 and $75 and it will take lower prices to move additional material.

Ux also notes that utilities were not the primary buyers in February (accounting for about 20%); it was rather traders, hedge funds and investment funds (eg, Uranium Participation Corp) that accounted for the bulk of activity.

Quelle:
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page66?oid=197351&sn=Detail


Rohstoffaktien Link



 

doppelt gemobbelt hält besser.

No-Cash

geht Forsys Entwicklung vom Explorer zum Producer voran. Forsys Newsflow in den letzten Wochen macht echt Laune und Lust auf mehr (so ne klitzekleine Minenlizenz würde doch jetzt hervorragend dazu passen).

Wenn man ein Menü bestellt hat, geht´s nach der Vorspeise irgendwann auch weiter, oder?!  

und ich kann die verraten es wird ein 3 Sternen Menü.

No-Cash

wer versalzt uns da wieder die suppe

ariva-kurs:
1.995

 

 

Schön langsam mach ich mir Sorgen, immer wieder wird gesagt und geschrieben wie gut alles läuft, der Kurs ist aber alles andere als berauschend, wenns so weitergeht sehen wir die Kurse um ? 1,50 wieder!
Was ist hier los???

Der Zocker

 

Aber die Börse spielt derzeit verrückt. Eine Allianz hat ein KGV von 4 oder 5 !!!!
Und fällt weiter !!!!
Was erwartest du in so einem schlechten Umfeld ?
Sollte Frosys nochmal auf 1,50 fallen, werde ich auf jeden Fall nachkaufen !!
Und wenn sich die Börse dann wieder normalisiert, wird die Rakete starten.  

Ich habe die Faxen echt bald fett!    
Was da seit Monaten an den Aktienmärkten passiert entbehrt wirklich jeglicher Logik!!!

In den USA gibt es Probleme, weil zu leichtfertig Hypotheken vergeben worden sind. Okay, dass da Banken unter die Räder kommen, ist ja klar, aber was passiert wirklich?
Ausnahmslos ALLES wird verkauft, nein geschlachtet, und zwar seit Monaten!!!

Und das bei dem Umfeld:
Kupfer hat diese Woche das scheinbar Unmögliche geschafft und ein neues Allzeithoch erreicht.
Aber was machen Kupferaktien? Teck Cominco fiel 38% in drei Monaten, Lundin Mining und Southern Peru Copper fielen über 40% und so weiter...  

Öl hat heute ein neues Allzeithoch erreicht, aber was machen Ölaktien? Ihr habt es erraten, sie fallen gerade wieder auf breiter Front!!! Die meisten Mayors haben nur noch einstellige KGVs, da sind bereits 60%ige Gewinnrückgänge in die Kurse eingepreist, von Ölsand oder kleinen Plays ganz zu schweigen...  

Gold ist immer noch nahe der 1.000 Dollar Marke, na und Goldaktien liegen im Keller, aber egal, lassen wir das!

Uranaktien sind da noch beschissener dran, da der Uranpreis auch noch weit, weit von seinem ATH entfernt steht (der muss sich nahezu verdoppeln!), von daher kann man in diesem Umfeld leider keine auch nur annähernd faire Bewertung für Forsys erwarten!



...obwohl ich dem uranpreis eigentlich nicht so viel bedeutung beimesse ! das ist aber wieder ein thema für sich !
ja lieber zocker keiner kann dir das so genau sagen! du sagst : immer wieder wird gesagt und geschrieben wie gut alles läuft... es werden hier nur infos und unternehmensmeldungen hier reingestellt und meinungen und einschätzungen geäussert! mehr nicht! ..aber eines ist klar das schnelle geld wirst du hier nicht finden ;-) oder vielleicht doch ! ..ganz ehrlich das weiß keiner !

man kann hier nur auf die starken fundamentaldaten fakten entwicklung und news verweisen!!!

aber fakt ist leider auch der niedrige kurs ! meiner meinung nach liegt es nicht am unternehmen !  

. .. .und bis auf wenigen, erfolgreichen short-zockern, geht es fast allen so.
Ich sehe auch meine Investments seit Monaten weglaufen und habe 50% "verloren", weil ich nicht verkauft habe. Auch Nerven manchmal die hoffnungsvoll pushenden Beiträge in den Threads (teilweise fachlich okay, teilweise Dünnbrettbohrer-Geschwafel) und meine Entscheidung steht fest:
Wenn ich ein Papier habe, das eigentlich (fundamental) auf festem Boden steht und das Umfeld (wie von Dir ganz richtig analysiert und beschrieben) leider abkackt, dann muß ich wohl längeren Atem haben und ein bis 3 Jahre Geduld investieren.
Ansonsten herrscht Unmut und Ungeduld und die Qualität in den Threads läßt spürbar nach.
Mit dem schnellen Geld  scheint das momentan schwer zu sein.
Ich kann (muß) warten!
Gruß aus dem hohen Norden!  

hier nicht die schnelle Abzocke machen, bin auch auf long eingestellt, aber hier hätte man mit Tagtrayden schon manch gutes Geschäft gemacht. Und jedesmal wenn man denkt, jetzt maschiert sie los, geht es wieder runter. Hoffe, dass wir in einem Jahr hier von neuen ATH schreiben können und wir von diesen Kursen träumen. Aber für die Nerven wäre ein moderater bleibender Anstieg sehr wohltuend!
Noch ein schönes Wochenende an alle Forsyaner!

Der Zocker
 

...doch : "Aber für die Nerven wäre ein moderater bleibender Anstieg sehr wohltuend!...

das wirst du und wir bei einem noch explorer bzw. nearterm producer (rohstoffwert) nicht
erleben !!! das markt segment (besonders Uran) wird immer volatil bleiben !

..aber wünschen würde ich es uns natürlich auch ;-) ... besonders für die grauen haare ..

gruß
enis  

gibt fast 7 % ab. Das verstehe wer will, auf jeden Fall ist es ärgerlich, und es bleibt zu wünschen, dass die Stopp-Fischer ihr Werk nicht ungehindert fortsetzen können. Die 3 CAD-Marke muss halten, sonst sind wir schnell wieder bei 2,50 CAD, und das wissen die shorter ganz genau.  

FSY Link

 

Man sollte mich einfrieren und in ein bis zwei Jahren wieder auftauen dann hat sich sicher alles beruhigt und forsys produziert fleißig. Dann hätte ich nen schönen gewinn und keine grauen Haare... Hm schade das man solche Frostkammern immer noch nicht entwickelt hat:(... Naja werd ich mir an tagen wie diesem halt weiterhin die Haare raufen müssen. Verkaufen werd ich aber nicht. Bin da der Ansicht der meisten hier das Forsys wirklich ein gutes Investment ist welches stark unterbewertet gehandelt wird.
Warum allerdings Shortseller immer auf Forsys gehen (und da geh ich mal kraft meiner Arroganz von aus das das heut der fall is) beibt mir schleierhaft. Forsys ist unter den Explorern für Uran einer der besten werte... Oder liegt es einfach daran das man meint hier noch jede menge schwacher Hände vom Verkauf überzeugen zu können? Immerhin war Forsys ja mal bei einigen BBs im Depot...
Naja ich werde wohl auch weiterhin mit derartigen Kursschwankungen leben müssen (zumindest vorerst). Hoffen wir mal das Forsys nächste Woche mal zeigt wie gut der Wert steigen kann:)  

"zitternde Hände" investiert, die enge Stoppkurse setzen, um keinen zu hohen Verlust zu erleiden. In Marktphasen wie diesen, ist es dann für die Profis relativ leicht, den Kurs in die gewünschte Richtung zu treiben und diese Stopps mitzunehmen. Die reiben sich natürlich die Hände und freuen sich, aber meine Aktien kriegt ihr auch diesmal nicht, ihr seelenlosen Zocker!    

http://www.advfn.com/...pid=staticchart&s=T%5EFSY&p=0&t=23&dm=0&vol=1  

Forsys Appoints New Chief Financial Officer
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - March 7, 2008) - Forsys Metals Corp. (TSX:FSY)("Forsys" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the appointment of Craig Bamford to the executive position of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) effective March 10, 2008. Mr. Bamford is a Chartered Accountant and experienced CFO who brings more than 25 years of finance background relating to project management and controls, financial reporting and controls, treasury and capital management, risk management, due diligence and business development. He has 22 years of experience in the uranium industry and was previously the CFO for Denison Energy Inc., formerly Denison Mines Limited, a major North American uranium producer.

In connection with his appointment, and pursuant to the Company's stock option plan, Mr. Bamford will be issued 450,000 five year stock options vesting equally over three years at the closing price on the grant date.

Forsys would like to thank Miles Nagamatsu, who has resigned as CFO, for his contribution and wish Miles well as he pursues other business interests.

Duane Parnham, Forsys President & CEO stated "We are delighted to continue to build our senior management team with the appointment of Craig as CFO. Craig brings to the Company financial management expertise and experience, specifically in the uranium industry, which will be invaluable as we progress with the development of the Valencia uranium project in Namibia."

On Behalf of the Board of Directors of Forsys Metals Corp.

Duane Parnham, President and CEO

For further information visit our web site at www.forsysmetals.com.

Sedar Profile #00008536

Shares Outstanding: 76,838,998
 

..bis die schwate kracht. das ist die psychologie an der börse aller erster güte, ausnutzen von angst, unsicherheit, falsche interpretation der markt lage und der zukunft, nur schlechte meldungen in der finanzwelt,..usw..d.h. in so einem umfeld kann man nur mit 1a explorern ordentlich geld verdienen..  

dass Forsys eine gute Geldanlage ist und trotzdem  glauben es einige immer noch nicht !

OK, Forsys ist immer noch ein Explorer ! Richtig ! Aber es ist einer der wenigen Explorer die es mit an Sicherheit grenzender Wahrscheinlichkeit zum Produzenten bringen werden.  
Warum ?!
Darum:
Lizenz zum Abbau (kommt in Kürze)
Belegte Resourcen (kein Kommentar)
Infrastruktur (ist vorhanden)
Finanzierung (können sie sich aussuchen)
Machbarkeitsstudie (ist vorhanden und das zu einem Uranpreis von 25-35 Euro !!!)

Was spricht eigentlich noch dagegen ?

Ein Uranpreis der ins bodenlose fällt !
(komisch nur, dass Strom, Öl, Gas usw. steigt und nur Atomstrom, also Uran, fallen soll ??!!)
Kann ich mir nicht vorstellen !

Also Leute lasst euch nicht verasch...., was derzeit abläuft ist nicht normal und wird sich auch bald wieder normalisieren.
Was ihr braucht ist gute Nerven und etwas Geduld.