Freeseas - Kursziel 2010

Bin im Bulkchartering tätig (d.h. Insider für Schifffahrt). Die Reederei scheint mir
unterbewertet zu sein, da Bulkcarrier im Gegensatz zu Containerschiffen wieder
beträchtliche Charteraten einfahren. Um es anders zu sagen, in diesem Schifffahrtbereich
wird wieder gutes Geld verdient.

Außerdem ist speziell der Handysize und Handymax Bulkmarkt (den FreeSeas bedient)
am wenigsten vom der großen Neubauwelle betroffen und ein großer Teil der Weltweit
fahrenen Flotte in diesem Segment ist veraltet (und muss demnächst verschrottet
werden). Dieser Umstand sollte FreeSeas dieses Jahr und auch über die nächsten
Jahre sichere und gute Gewinne bescheren, auch wenn die weltweite nachfrage nach
Seetransporten gleich bleibt.

Speziell mit dem zur Zeit schwachen USD ist FreeSeas ein attraktives Investment für
6-12 Monate. Mein realistisches FreeSeas Kurziel für 2010 ist USD 2,50. Ich kann mir
vorstellen, dass dieses Kursziel nach veröffentlichung der Jahreszahlen für 2009 relativ
schnell erreicht werden kann.

Anbei noch ein paar interessante Meinungen bzgl. FreeSeas, die ich bei Google Finance
gefunden habe.
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Lokal: Mo 21 Sep. 2009 18:58
Betreff: Share Price Expectation


Dearest shareholders,

Here are some foundations for what we believe the share price should
be in the current market.

The company has earned Net Income approximately 7M this current year
so far.  With an Earnings Per Share value of 1.00, this puts the price
earnings ratio at 1.85.

With latest news releases showing that the company has already secured
deliveries for all its ships for this current year and majority for
the next, lets safely assume that the EPS stays the same
(realistically under these conditions, earnings will improve, but this
example will remain very conservative)

The standard for price earnings ratio for most business is
approximately 15.  You get the PE ratio by dividing the price of the
share, by its earnings.  Right now FREE's PE ratio is one of the
lowest on the entire market at 1.87.  Use the stock screener on
googlefinance.com to check.  While you are at it, take a look at
Google's stock (GOOG) on the nasdaq, and take a peek at its PE ratio.
It is 34.56.

What does all this mean?   Well let us safely assume that investors
around the globe start to realize how undervalued FREE really is, and
that the price earnings ratio resumes to a conventional standard.
Under current conditions we believe minimum share price should be
valued at $10 and for a median PE ratio, FREE would need to be priced
at $15 per share.

Just for a little more fuel to the fire, it would take a share price
of approximately $34 to have the same ratio as Google on the Nasdaq.

Food for thought and warm regards,

King David

==================================================
Lokal: Di 22 Sep. 2009 21:35
Betreff: Re: Share Price Expectation

Good Afternoon,

While I agree with King David that FREE is a good buy, as it is a
solid business, nimble in its size and is trading at its maximum
capacity (all ships are rented out), I do not agree with you on the
projections and think they are a bit over optimistic. You will agree
with me that the PE ratio is only indicative when compared to peers.
Taking the most close competitors of FREE, which one can also find on
google finance, one would see an average PE ratio of 4.50 which would
be where FREE should be valued right now less a margin to make up for
the size of the company which is much smaller than its peers.
The ability of the company to attract new equity investors in a lean
period is also very good news.

My target price is USD5.00 which still means a very healthy profit of
268% based on current market conditions and factoring in an increase
in profitability as the economy betters also keeping in mind that the
market has todate shunned FREE and share movement has been much lower
than peers, with also most of the analysts covering FREE being
negative about the company.

However I must add that I would gladly trade getting my projections
wrong and see that King David is right!

Kenneth

==================================================
Lokal: Fr. 16 Okt. 2009 16:17
Betreff: WHO WILL DRYS BUY?

CEO of DRYS has been talking about buyout and mergers that are "much
needed" in shipping.  I have had speculated about this statment for a
while now.  Even thought maybe they would buy a tanker company like
ONAV to go with their drilling ships.  But in reading this new FREE
CFO background I find it interesting that he worked for DRYS and
Cardiff in the past.  Connection?  Who knows for sure - strange it was
announce on the same day as DRYS announced new CFO as well.  Just
speculating and I have no knowlegde of anything - simply a holder of
FREE who would love to wake up and see this bought for like $3 a share
overnight.  

Auf dem TC Average Diagramm ist deutlich zu sehen wie volatil die Capesize Charteraten im Vergleich zu den Handysize und Handymax Charteraten sind. Das selbe gilt für die Schiffswerte. Die Diagramme zeigen das Handysize und Handymax Bulker im Verhältnis zu den größern Panamax- und Capesizebulkern weniger von dem Verfall der Charterraten und Wertminderungen der Schiffe betroffen waren/sind. FreeSeas Inc. hat glücklicherweise zu Boomzeiten keine Neubauten geordert (im Gegensatz zu eigentlich allen NASDAQ gelisteten Bulk Reedereien) und nur wenig Second Hand Tonnage im Handysize- und Handymaxsektor akquiriert. Zudem wurden in Boomzeiten zwei Langzeitchartern zu Spitzenraten geschlossen (MV"Free Lady" zu USD 51,150 per day bis Mai 2010 oder MV"Free Jupiter" zu USD 28,000 bzw. USD 24,000 bis März 2010). Da die aktuelle Flotte von FreeSeas Inc. aus nur 10 Schiffen besteht bilden diese beiden Abschlüsse zusätzlich zu den zur Zeit sowieso wieder attraktiven Spot Charterraten schon eine gute Basis.

Ich denke die Zahlen sprechen für sich. Wenn der Welthandel auf dem jetzigen Niveau bleibt oder sich noch weiter erholt sollte FreeSeas von heute bis Mitte 2010 ein solides und lukratives Investment sein.  

 

Freeseas 'turns corner'
US-listed Greek handysize owner Freeseas says it has "turned a corner" after a quarter when the bottom line went from red to black figures.

Ion Varouxakis, chief executive of FreeSeas, says the company's improved financial position sets it up for acquisition opportunities and even newbuildings. FreeSeas owns eight handysize bulkers and two handymaxes, all in the spot market.


FreeSeas earned a net $2.7m in the first quarter of this year on operating revenues of $15.7m. That is an improvement on the fourth quarter of 2009, when the company lost a net $363,000 on operating revenues of $14.8m. But the quarterlies are still down from a year ago, when some of the fleet was still earning charter hire at pre-crash rates. In the first quarter of 20090, the net was over twice as high at $6.2m on $17.6m in operating revenues.


Besides lower hire rates, increased operating expenses are a second factor holding down FreeSeas. The company's daily operating expenses come to $5,208 per day, up nearly a quarter from a year ago, when daily operating expenses were $4,295 per ship.


In a press release, Varouxakis touted the success of a spot-market chartering strategy. "This has led to significant improvements to free cash flow, available cash at banks, corporate leverage and profitability as compared to the fourth quarter of 2009" wrote Varouxakis. "We feel that the company has turned a corner and our strengthened financial position provides us with multiple options for growth in the future. The steadily improving handysize chartering market positions us to renew our fleet by exploring secondhand and newbuilding opportunities."


Chief financial officer Alexandros Mylonas added that the company has cut its debt level, also a positive for any acquisition plans.  

Moin moin,

leider muss ich nach dem letzten halben Jahr feststellen, dass es für den Kurs unrelevant ist, wie gut der Chartermarkt ist und die Reederei läuft. Ob man will oder nicht, der Aktienkurs wird vom Markt bestimmt, wenn DOW und NASDAQ hoch gehen, gehen alle Aktien mit. Wenns bergab geht, halt auch.

Dementsprechend können meine oben genannten feststellungen leider nur als untergeordneter Indikator gesehen werden und da man den Markt kurzfristig leider nicht einschätzen kann, ist sind die oben stehenden Beiträge eigentlich für die Katz. Auf lange sicht vielleicht von Interesse aber kurzfristig unrelevant...

Schöne Grüße