Mar 10, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST Bedraggled chip sector not near bottom yet Commentary: Small deals and possibly more failures loom
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Internet radio saved at a small cost Story Quotes Comments Screener (13) Alert Email Print Share By Therese Poletti, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Mario Morales, an analyst with market researcher IDC, is in the unenviable position of following one of the most bedraggled sectors in technology right now: semiconductors.
He doesn't have much in the way of good news these days.
"The biggest question I am getting is, when is the bottom?" Morales said last week at a round table in San Jose, Calif. He doesn't see any growth coming to the semiconductor business until at least mid-2010.
One analogy he made for a roundtable of chip industry executives was that of a roller coaster, like the Giant Dipper in the nearby beach town of Santa Cruz. The roller coaster slowly climbs, click-clacking all the way up the wooden structure, before tumbling down to a gut-wrenching dive. Then it whips around, resumes a fast rise, albeit at much lower heights.
"We still haven't gone all the way down yet," Morales said.
Disappointment was clear on some of the faces of the local executives, but they couldn't have been surprised. Some of the executives came from companies faring better than others, but everyone around the table was familiar with how grim the business is right now.
Since chips are purchased by computer firms, cell-phone makers and the producers of consumer electronics devices and automobiles, chip companies provide some early indicators of how much worse business may get.
"We need to be looking at more double-digit declines in unit volumes," he said. "This is a very broad-based slowdown." PCs and cell phones probably will both see double-digit drops.
Already, the industry has seen flash-memory chipmaker Spansion Inc. and memory-chip maker Qimonda AG (QMND.Q 0.07, +0.01, +16.86%) file for bankruptcy protection. Further, forecasts for semiconductor sales continue to fall.
IDC projects worldwide sales for semiconductors will fall 22% in 2009, while capital spending should tumble, as they refrain from upgrading or expanding their factories. Gartner predicted chip equipment sales, the companies who sell manufacturing equipment to semiconductor firms, will drop 45%. See full story.
"Intel is the only one spending right now," Morales said of the world's largest chipmaker, which also will close some older plants as part of its own cost-cutting moves.
One would think that such turmoil in the industry would lead to more mergers, but the lack of available credit makes buyouts bigger than $100 million tough for companies that are trying to hold onto as much cash as possible.
Companies like Intel Corp., (INTC 15.96, -0.06, -0.38%) Broadcom Corp (BRCM 24.29, -0.02, -0.08%) and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM 43.24, +0.18, +0.42%) are probably the most capable of doing deals right now, because of their respective hoards of cash. As of their most recent quarterly earnings reports, Intel had $8.7 billion in cash and equivalents, Broadcom stowed $1.2 billion and Qualcomm salted away $3.8 billion.
But Morales noted a current priority for some chip firms is the need to work on restructuring or extending their current debt levels, if their debt is about to expire. That is where Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD 3.45, -0.03, -0.93%) had issues, and ultimately spun off its manufacturing into a separate company with the help of a cash infusion from Abu Dhabi investors.
In times like this, investors might be tempted to get ahead and buy into a sector as it hits bottom. After all, chip stocks are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, as a look at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will attest. And on Monday, Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN 20.47, +0.03, +0.15%) had some good news for the sector, providing a slightly higher revenue outlook for the company's fiscal first quarter. See full story.
But they should tread with caution.
Sanford Bernstein analyst Richard Keiser observed in a recent report that even though some stars are lining up to entice bottom-feeders, a major negative that remains is weak end-user demand. Some data suggest that investors are betting that demand will "turn the corner toward the second half of 2009," Keiser wrote, creating a risk that if the downturn is prolonged, negative revisions for semiconductor stocks will persist.
"In summary, we believe enterprise hardware demand will remain weak for some time, and the secondary/used market is likely to be an offset to any pent-up demand," Keiser wrote. "This means the semiconductor sector may not see a 'snapback' of the same magnitude following prior downturns (at least not in the near future)."
Companies that are shopping may certainly find some good deals now. Investors, however, may stay on the sidelines a bit longer.
Therese Poletti is a senior columnist for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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