Uran Forum

In diesem Forum können Neuigkeiten zum Uranmarkt oder Uranminen gepostet werden.Der Markt sollte genug Katalysatoren bereithalten damit wir 200$ im Uran-Spotmarkt sehen sollten.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Zd0UgSLJXQ   Säuft der Kurs der Uranies deshalb ab?  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN-s10Rw4WM  

USA: für die Anwendung von KI sind enorm schnelle und leistungsfähige Chips erforderlich. Die benötigen Unmengen an Energie. Um die effektiv einsetzen zu können, baut man die KI-generierenden Rechenzentren direkt neben Kernkraftwerken. Man vermeidet u.a. Leitungsverluste und reduziert mögliche Unsicherheiten in der Verfügbarkeit der Energie ( z.B. Dunkelflauten oder Windstille )
China: DeepSeek hat eine Softwarebasierte Lösung gefunden, die mit ( wenn ich mich richtig erinnere ) nur 3% der Energie benötigt, die die amerikanische Version erfordert.
Damit werden viele Ersatz- und Neubauten von AKW´s genau so obsolet, wie die Chipproduktionen von NVidia & Co.  

Genau wie erwartet, es wird nun Eindeckungen von Calls gegeben haben in Erwartung dessen, dass Sprott seine Bestände auf den Markt wirft. KAZ hat noch nicht mal gewackelt. Die Investoren in Juniors hätten sich letzten November schon fragen sollen, warum der größte Uranproduzent der Welt Festpreise auf 5 Jahre vereinbart, wenn Uran doch eine Wachstumsstory sein soll. Der Preis ist nun aufs Ausbruchsniveau vom Oktober 2023 gefallen, wenn das nicht gehalten wird kann der gesamte Anstieg seit der Seitwärtsphase abgegeben werden - also runter auf $55. Gut ist das für Versorger mit AKWs wie Engie obwohl der Markt das im Moment noch nicht begreift.  

Na, dann hast Du wohl die Chinesische KI vorhergesehen, ganz im Gegensatz zum Rest der Welt. Kann ich mal Deine Glaskugel ausleihen.  

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/...ersetzt-es-die-ki-welt-in-panik-336880/  

Die Glaskugel war dass sich KAZ im November auf einen Langfristvertrag zum Festpreis eingelassen hatte obwohl zu dem Zeitpunkt alle noch dachten Uran geht steil nach oben. Und dass der größte Uranförderer der Welt den Markt vielleicht besser einschätzen kann als Youtube-Experten.  

"The Trump administration has frozen investments and grants approved by the US International Development Finance Corp.,"

http://5523939.hs-sites.com/...tent=346148430&utm_source=hs_email

 

February 12, 2025
Global Atomic Provides Corporate Update
Toronto, ON: Global Atomic Corporation (?Global Atomic? or the ?Company?) (TSX: GLO, OTCQX: GLATF, FRANKFURT: G12) is pleased to provide an update on recent activities at the Company and the Dasa Uranium Project in the Republic of Niger.

NIGER UPDATE

At the African Mining Indaba Conference held in Cape Town last week, the Company held several important meetings with Niger?s Mines Minister Abarchi, who was present at the largest mining conference in Africa, promoting his Country to attract potential investors interested in the mining sector. The Minister emphasized the Government?s strong support for Global Atomic and the Dasa Project, and confirmed his government has no intention to nationalize the Dasa Project.  

In various meetings attended by Minister Abarchi at the Conference, he stated that Niger welcomes and encourages investment by foreign mining companies specifically including those from Canada, the United States and Australia.  Further, at the end of last week the Niger government announced plans to hold a major conference in mid-February to establish a process that will govern the transition to a democratic election.

The Company held additional meetings in Cape Town, including with new groups interested in financing the Dasa Project, as well as suppliers and contractors who are currently working with Global Atomic and SOMIDA.

PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
The advancement of the Dasa underground has progressed on the first two levels along the footwall of the ore body.  Five-meter diameter ventilation raises have been completed and commissioned enabling continued underground development while maintaining safe working conditions and efficiency.

Plant construction is proceeding on schedule with earthworks nearing completion and civil works underway and the concrete batch plant now under construction.  Large pieces of processing equipment such as the SAG mill shell, crusher and acid plant are now on site.  The camp that will house the plant construction crew is well underway with a large percentage of housing now ready for occupation.

FINANCING

Since the inauguration of President Trump in the United States of America, the market reaction has been that debt funding for the Dasa Project is unlikely to come from the USA.  However, these discussions continue as well as the advancement of the Joint Venture final documentation. It is important to remember that the Company has entered into off-take agreements for 8.8 million pounds U3O8 over the first 7 years of the Mine; 90% of which has been sold to US utilities.  As a result of the many successful meetings at the Indaba Conference, new parties have indicated a willingness to participate in the final funding solution for Dasa. Management is confident that these initiatives will continue to progress, and we reiterate our belief that prior to the end of Q1, 2025, further clarity can be shared with the market.

Stephen Roman, President & CEO of Global Atomic, stated, ?By advancing the development of the mine, processing plant and infrastructure, we have significantly moved the Dasa Project closer to production while continuously adding to the intrinsic value of the Dasa Project.  This is the basis of appraisal for all our financing discussions and not the current value of our shares.?

A recent video of our progress in Niger is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITl8r104-MA.  

USOTC: + 23,65
TSX: + 23,40%  

nach der "DFC-Meldung" zu 0,36 Euro komplett verkauft und aufgrund:
1. https://x.com/baelde_jonas/status/1886120532833112539
2. https://x.com/UraniumFrank13/status/1888291097199390758
die doppelte Menge zu durchschn. ca. 0,32 Euro gekauft. Dafür ist mein gehebelter SPUT tiefrot ....  

Ein Waffenstillstand ist nun hochwahrscheinlich, was bedeutet, dass Sanktionen auf russische Rohstoffe schrittweise aufgehoben werden. Am Tag vor dem Überfall auf die Ukraine stand die Unze bei $42. Guckt euch die KGVs von euren Titel vor dem Krieg an und vergleicht die mit jetzt. Da kann es durchaus noch weitere 60-70% runtergehen und von den Juniors werden einige ins Gras beißen. Die einzige Ausnahme ist ja bekannt, da könnten aber auch westliche Abnehmer Verträge aufkündigen weil die Transportkosten ab $60 zu hoch sind.  

Also den Rohstoff, Yellow Cake, hat man nur in geringen Mengen aus Russland bezogen. Aufbereitung der Brennstäbe war der Deal. Uran wird übrigens nicht in Unzen, sondern in Pfund gehandelt.  

Die erklärte Politik Trump´s ist: MAGA. Da gibt es kein zurück zu irgendeiner Abhängigkeit von irgendeinem Drittstaat! Denn das schadet sofort dem großen vaterländischen Ziel....  

noch ein Aspekt aus dem wöchentlichen Newsletter von Lobo Tiggre zur
aktuellen spotprice Schwäche:

I?m very bullish on uranium... but I must admit that there?s a new wrinkle in the story. No, I?m not worried about reports of a Russian drone hitting the Chernobyl containment dome. It?s the possibility that Trump might set up a new ?Megatons to Megawatts? program. He?s just said: ?President Putin and I agreed that we were going to do it in a very big way. There's no reason for us to be building brand-new nuclear weapons. We already have so many, you could destroy the world 50 times over, 100 times over. And here we are building new nuclear weapons.? Maybe this is just talk, but the truth is that spot uranium has now fallen lower than I thought it would.
I?m still inclined to see this as an opportunity. But? if a significant amount of weapons-grade uranium is down-blended to create reactor fuel, it would create a new source of secondary supply. This too may be something uranium bulls may not want to hear?but you know what my job is. I?ll need to see what the potential scale is here before I can work this into my model. It may not even happen. But it?s something I?ll be watching closely.
Why is spot down so much if nothing has changed? There are reports that fewer Japanese reactor restarts are bringing more secondary supply to market. I think this is unlikely, even if there are fewer restarts. More likely, in my mind, is companies that bought uranium while it was cheap in order to finance mine construction selling to the spot market to do just that. If so, we will see this documented in future filings.  

hier noch n neues video mit justin huhn zu dem thema.
fazit:
rahmenbedingungen bleiben auf lange sicht in takt.
keine panik.
wir bleiben looooooooooooong... ;-)  

vergessen, Mist..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIE7ruhidus  

"What happens with Enriched #Uranium for US Utilities if the war ends and most sanctions are summarily lifted?

In line with Cameco comments on the topic and general consensus in the sector - very little is likely to materially change. That said, I won?t even guess what investor sentiment would do or how under-informed speculators will behave.

So let?s go over why very little would be likely to materially change:

1. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Law is not a ?Sanction? it cannot be lifted by Executive Order ? it would require Congressional repeal of a law that passed with unanimous bipartisan support. A law designed to force the restart of a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. Passage of that law was required to unlock $3.4B in funds for building and expanding domestic production of LEU and HALEU. It is extremely unlikely that this law is repealed because ending dependence on Russian conversion & enrichment is a national security priority, and a national energy priority (reinforced under Wright?s DoE.) Also, the funds have already been awarded and in the case of both Orano & Urenco - have been met with billions in additional private spending commitments (along w lesser amounts by other vendors eg $60m from Centrus.) And, a reminder, this law prohibits all Russian Uranium Imports as of 12-31-27 even if the fuel buyer is holding one of the five Waivers issued by DoE.

2. Russia?s retaliatory ?Temporary Export Ban? is Russian ?policy? or counter-sanction (not law) that is set to last through 12-31-25 (and then be subject to renewal) but it could potentially be lifted (or export licenses issued) however, only Waiver holders would be eligible to order material. Now, this is where timing matters: There are only 22 months left until the Import Ban fully kicks-in. How many more months go by until peace is negotiated ? if it is at all? The point is that even if Russia is inclined to encourage orders (post war) the window for turnaround shipments is ticking toward closure.

3. In my opinion, even Waiver holders are no longer holding out hope of receiving Russian EUP in the wake of multiple sailings from St. Petersburg that did not contain material. As such, alternative vendors are being contracted - as evidenced by soaring prices for Conversion and Enrichment Services since Nov ?24.

In the big picture, the requirement for Uranium U3O8, (the feedstock for Enrichment Services) is a worldwide calculation ? no matter who performs the Services.  As such, the structural supply deficit (inadequate to fuel existing reactors - never mind new demand) hasn?t changed, it was only been temporarily delayed by a year of uncertainties around the likely permanent disruption of a 30-year method of procurement."

https://x.com/leggett_john/status/1892640846811394303

 

"People really think another megatons to megawatts program would be that detrimental to the uranium market?

Using chatGPT, cause I?m lazy, ~39Mlbs from the prior megatons to megawatts came from 20,000 warheads.

We?re not at that same level as before. Bring on nuclear disarmament"

https://x.com/UraniumTails/status/1890571828764020942

"Based off the figures on centrus website and at ratio of 8 to 1 natural to leu
20,000 warheads equals 248 million lbs of uranium, it took 18 yrs to complete the program so that's less 14million lbs a year at $870 per lb leu in 2014 dollars"
 

"Most likely outcome is that it becomes the US Strategic Uranium Stockpile and/ or gets downblended to 19.75% to produce HALEU which dovetails nicely into the projected timeline of the deployment of SMRs.
Neither of those is in the current supply/ demand projections."

"US military uranium stockpiles are at/near historical lows. Warheads downblended already feed the HEU needs of the nuclear navy, which consumes ~5+mlbs/yr. The below take is right on, IMO"

https://x.com/uraniuminsider/status/1890498182825541868  

Cameco im gestrigen CC dazu:

"We have and I can tell you, the spot market is not where utilities go to meet their annual run raterequirements. It's completely discretionary and its non-fundamental. Of the 46 million pounds ofuranium that transacted in the spot market last year, only about 15% was bought by utilities. As isthe case every year, a great deal of the spot activity was churn.
Traders, brokers and financial players passing around  100 000 pounds 5 times, which becomes 500 000 pounds of reported volume, that's not a reliable source of supply for the more than 175 million pounds a year needed to fuel the global nuclear fleet annually. And that's not a source ofsupply that can underpin the long-term operation of a nuclear reactor for 60 or more years.Instead, utilities are buying uranium and the fuel cycle services in the long-term market, yearsahead of time, sometimes even for the decade to come or longer.  "      

"...Based on global fuel requirements, utilities have bought less than 40% of the uranium they need tooperate through to 2040, that translates to about 2.1 billion pounds of uranium that is yet to bepurchased and is putting an awful lot of pressure on supply in the mid-2030s, a time when severalmajor global primary supply sources are thinning out, and the investments in construction of newmines required to replace them have not even started..."  

"...Based on global fuel requirements, utilities have bought less than 40% of the uranium they need tooperate through to 2040, that translates to about 2.1 billion pounds of uranium that is yet to bepurchased and is putting an awful lot of pressure on supply in the mid-2030s, a time when severalmajor global primary supply sources are thinning out, and the investments in construction of newmines required to replace them have not even started. ..."  

Cameco Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEXPp_0Qm9Q  

?A 10% proposed tariff from a major supply source like Canada will effectively raise the uranium price by 10% because if you think about it, US domestic demand is inelastic for contracted volumes,? said Grant Isaac, chief financial officer at Cameco, adding that it would also push other non-tariff countries to simply increase their offer prices by as much. "

https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/...-if-trumps-tariffs-go-play