K+S, von Rekordhoch zu Rekordhoch

Dem gibt es nichts hinzuzufügen!!  

http://news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=728172

Belarusian potash case accused still in Interpol database
02.10.2013 14:01

MINSK, 2 October (BelTA) – Information about Suleiman Kerimov and other persons involved in the potash case remains in Interpol’s relevant database, Belarusian Interior Minister Igor Shunevich told media on 2 October.

BelTA has learned that the information is stored in a database but the relevant commission has to make a decision in order to advance the procedure. The decision has not been made yet.

The official also said that the Belarusian Interior Ministry had not been notified by Interpol that Suleiman Kerimov is no longer on the wanted list. The Interior Ministry has received a notification that the matter of putting the persons involved in the potash case on a so-called red notice had not been decided yet.  

http://online.wsj.com/article/...2702303722604579111380446067174.html

Stake in Russia's Uralkali Likely to Be Sold to Local Buyer
October 2, 2013, 1:07 p.m.

By ALEXANDER KOLYANDR MOSCOW—A large stake in Russian potash giant Uralkali URALL +3.32% is likely to be sold to one of several wealthy local investors bidding for the embattled company, despite interest from some potential foreign bidders, people close to the discussions said Wednesday.

The people said that the Kremlin is eager to repair a rift with neighboring Belarus that led to the collapse of an informal global price cartel in the vital fertilizer additive potash and the arrest in Minsk in August of Uralkali's chief executive on charges of abuse of office that the company has dismissed as political.

The people said the Kremlin has made clear to potential bidders that some kind of sales cooperation with Belarus—a close ally of Moscow that depends heavily on potash for export revenues—should be restored after any deal. In July, Uralkali said it would no longer seek to maintain high prices by limiting production, shifting instead to a strategy aimed at boosting volume in a push to win market share. The change hammered the share prices of potash producers around the world.

Suleiman Kerimov, the Russian tycoon who holds a 21.7% stake in Uralkali through his Swiss-based foundation, is willing to sell his stake to help resolve the tensions with Minsk, provided a buyer pays what he considers a fair price, valuing the entire company around $19 billion to $20 billion, other people familiar with Mr. Kerimov's thinking said. That is well above current market prices of about $16 billion, however.

Several other Russian tycoons have expressed interest in buying Mr. Kerimov's stake, as well as smaller ones held by several other major shareholders, bringing the total stake on offer to as much as 35%, according to those people.  

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/...hancen-bei-uralkali-kreise-015.htm

Ausländische Investoren haben kaum Chancen bei Uralkali - Kreise
02.10.2013 | 21:42

Von Alexander Kolyandr

MOSKAU--Der zum Verkauf stehende Anteil am Kaliproduzenten Uralkali wird voraussichtlich an einen russischen Käufer gehen. Den Zuschlag dürfte einer von mehreren reichen Investoren aus dem Land erhalten, obwohl auch ausländische Bieter Interesse gezeigt hätten, sagten mit der Sache vertraute Personen am Mittwoch. Mit einem Deal würde sich die angespannte Situation zwischen Russland und Weißrussland weiter beruhigen.

Der Uralkali-Großaktionär Suleiman Kerimow, der über seine Schweizer Stiftung 21,7 Prozent an dem Unternehmen hält, will seinen Anteil verkaufen. Voraussetzung sei allerdings, dass ein Käufer einen fairen Preis zahle, der den gesamten Konzern mit rund 19 bis 20 Milliarden US-Dollar bewertet, wie andere informierte Personen sagten. Das ist deutlich mehr als der aktuelle Marktwert von etwa 16 Milliarden Dollar.

Mehrere andere russischen Magnaten hätten Interesse an der Kerimow-Beteiligung bekundet, ebenso wie an kleineren Anteilen, die von anderen Großaktionären gehalten werden. Insgesamt stünden bis zu 35 Prozent der Anteile zum Verkauf, wie es hieß.

Auszug:
Staatsfonds und andere Investoren aus Asien hätten an den kleineren Anteilen, die nun zum Verkauf stehen, interessiert gezeigt, sagten die mit den Gesprächen vertrauten Personen. Der Kreml wolle aber, dass das strategisch wichtige Unternehmen unter russischer Kontrolle bleibe.

Der chinesische Staatsfonds China Investment Corp hatte im September eine Option zur Wandlung von Anleihen in Aktien ausgeübt und hält nun 12,5 Prozent an dem Kaliproduzenten. Damit hat China, der weltgrößte Kalikonsument, Anspruch auf einen Sitz im Uralkali-Board. Laut informierten Personen, hätte Peking die Beteiligung gerne auf 25 Prozent aufgestockt, sei damit aber abgeblitzt. Nationale Regierungen hatten in der Vergangenheit ihre Kaliproduzenten immer wieder gegen ausländische Eigentümer verteidigt.
 

Potash to bottom out, then rebound in 2014 - Uralkali
Reuters ? 1 hour 9 minutes ago

...
In July Uralkali said it had expected global potash prices to decline to below $300 per tonne in the second half due to its decision to leave the trading alliance, down from a previous price of $400 per tonne.
"The (global) price will not drop to $300, but there might be a correction from current levels this year because Belaruskali and other producers' attempts to place volumes could put pressure on the prices," Petrov said.
"All corrections will occur within 2013, reaching a bottom in early 2014 with the contract in China, after which there will be a definite rebound."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...tom-then-rebound-2014-080147392.html  

Russia, Belarus hold joint war games

MINSK, Belarus?Russia's President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart have watched a massive joint military exercise of the two ex-Soviet neighbors that involved more than 22,000 troops.

The West 2013 exercise conducted Thursday near the city of Grodno in western Belarus and in Russia's westernmost Kaliningrad region also involved more than 500 armored vehicles and about 90 aircraft along with ships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Russia and Belarus are allies and have close economic, political and military ties. Russia has several military facilities in Belarus, and the two nations operate a joint air defense system.
http://dmnbtext.com/research/...f83ea76&docid=5940610737905286155  

Stake in Russia's Uralkali likely to be sold: newspaper
Thu Oct 3, 2013 12:35am IST

(Reuters) - A large stake in Russian potash producer Uralkali OAO (URKA.MM) is likely to be sold to one of several local bidders, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

The report, which cited unnamed people close to the discussions, also said the Kremlin is eager to repair a rift with Belarus that led to the collapse in July of the Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), and wants some kind of sales co-operation with Belarus, after a steady slide in prices of the crop nutrient potash.

Uralkali officials could not immediately be reached to comment on the report.

Shares of North American potash producers rallied after the article was published, with Mosaic Co (MOS.N) rising 3.4 percent in New York by mid-afternoon. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO) and Agrium Inc (AGU.TO) were up 2.9 and 1.6 percent respectively in Toronto.

However, there are no buyers close to doing the deal as of now, several sources familiar with the situation told Reuters this week.

"I can't see the buyer now," one of them said.

http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINBRE99112A20131002?irpc=932  

K+S sehr gefragt - Hoffnung auf altes Preiskartell

Neue Hoffnung auf die Wiederbelebung des russisch-weißrussischen Kali-Preiskartells hat die Aktien von K+S am Donnerstag beflügelt.Nach einem entsprechenden Medienbericht setzten sich die Papiere des Düngemittelherstellers mit plus 3,11 Prozent und 19,20 Euro an die DAX-Spitze. Der Leitindex verbesserte sich im ruhigen Feiertagshandel am Tag der deutschen Einheit um 0,05 Prozent.
    Dem Bericht zufolge soll der 22-prozentige Anteil von Großaktionär Suleiman Kerimov am russischen Kali-Weltmarktführer Uralkali an heimische Käufer gehen. Kreisen zufolge will der Kreml wohl auch das Preiskartell mit dem weißrussischen Staatskonzern Belaruskali wiederbeleben. Der Ausstieg von Uralkali hatte Ende Juli für massive Verwerfungen am Kalimarkt gesorgt.
    Grund war die Angst vor einem Preiskrieg in der Branche mit dem voraussichtlichen Ende der Preis-vor-Volumen-Politik. Zahlreiche Analysten hatten daraufhin ihre Kali-Prognosen eingestampft. Börsianer nahmen nun positiv auf, dass Russland wohl an einer Beilegung des Streits mit dem Nachbarland gelegen ist, der sogar zur zwischenzeitlichen Inhaftierung von Uralkali-Chef Wladislaw Baumgertner und einem Haftbefehl gegen Kerimov geführt hatte. Die Anleger hoffen mit dem neuen alten Kartell auf die vorherige Preisdisziplin, was K+S mit seinen vergleichsweise hohen Produktionskosten zu Gute käme./ag/rum/kja
http://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/...ltes-Preiskartell-2693068  

Düngemittelmarkt fehlt Richtung - www.proplanta.de

Mit 1,62 Mio. Tonnen habe der Absatz von N-Düngemitteln unter dem langjährigen Durchschnitt von 1,7 Mio. Tonnen gelegen, erklärte Dr. Horst Bremer, Vizepräsident des Bundesverbandes der Agrargewerblichen Wirtschaft e.V. (BVA). Eine etwas andere Tendenz sieht er bei den Grunddüngern. Hohe Erlöse für Getreide und Raps nach der Ernte 2012 seien von den Landwirten in die Nährstoffversorgung der Böden investiert worden. ?Wir schätzen die Absatzsteigerungen für Phosphat auf etwa 10 Prozent und für Kali auf acht bis zehn Prozent ein?, erklärte Bremer.

Der BVA erwarte für das laufende Geschäftsjahr ein kompliziertes Düngemittelgeschäft. Im Vergleich zu den Vorjahren sei beim Handel weniger Stickstoffdünger eingelagert. Obwohl die Düngemittelpreise im langjährigen Vergleich zurzeit relativ niedrig seien, hielten sich die Landwirte mit Bestellungen zurück. ?Dem Markt fehlt die Richtung, deshalb verhalten sich alle Marktpartner ruhig?, hat Bremer festgestellt.

Die gute Getreide- und Rapsernte 2013 werde im Wirtschaftsjahr 2013/2014 für eine normale Nachfrage nach Dünger sorgen, hofft der BVA-Vizepräsident. Die Düngerläger beim Handel seien zurzeit so leer wie schon seit Jahren nicht mehr. Der Handel lege sich in der aktuell unsicheren Lage nur in geringem Umfang Ware auf eigene Rechnung ins Lager.

Deutlich nachgegeben hätten in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten die Preise für Harnstoff. Relativ stabil seien dagegen die Preise für KAS, der von den Handelsstufen aber als zu teuer angesehen werde. Volle Lager bei den Produzenten hätten auch die Preise für DAP 18 + 46 und TSP unter Druck gesetzt. Auf dem Kalimarkt habe der russische Kali-Produzent Uralkali mit der Ankündigung, aus dem Kali-Export-Verbund BPC auszutreten, Schockwellen ausgelöst. Welche Auswirkungen dies auf die Kalipreise in Deutschland habe, sei noch offen.

Der optimale Zeitpunkt zum günstigsten Einkaufspreis sämtlicher Düngersorten sei für das laufende Wirtschaftsjahr schwer einzuschätzen. Grundsätzlich gelte weiterhin die Empfehlung, beim aktuell relativ niedrigen Preisniveau für Düngemittel Teilmengen abzusichern, empfiehlt der BVA. (bva)
http://www.proplanta.de/Agrar-Nachrichten/Pflanze/...e1380183182.html  

ICL Gains on Report of Russia"s Uralkali Effort: Tel Aviv Mover

October 3, 2013 (Source: Businessweek) ? Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) rose this week and volume climbed to a two-month high as the Israeli potash producer benefited from speculation that Russian peer OAO Uralkali (URKA) will resume cooperation with a Belarusian counterpart.

Shares of the Dead Sea minerals harvester advanced 0.5 percent this week as volume was the highest since the period ended Aug. 1. The stock today gained as much as 2.2 percent before sliding 1.3 percent to 29.10 shekels at the close in Tel Aviv amid a rebalancing in the benchmark TA-25 Index.

Russia has told bidders for Suleiman Kerimov"s 22 percent stake in Uralkali they should repair a rift with Belarus that led to the end of a joint venture controlling 40 percent of global potash exports, Dow Jones reported yesterday, citing unidentified people close to the discussions. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT:US) and Plymouth, Minnesota-based Mosaic Co. (MOS:US) were among fertilizer makers that rose yesterday on the Dow Jones report. The Uralkali stake will probably be sold to a local investor, according to the report.

"Israel Chemicals shares will continue to rise if good news about a resumption of cooperation will persist," Ilanit Sherf, an analyst at Tel Aviv-based Psagot Investment House Ltd., said today by phone. "Until the issue is resolved, we will continue to see volatility in the share."

Sherf has a price estimate of 34 shekels on the stock and is one of 13 analysts with a hold rating, according to data compiled by Bloomberg . Four others recommend investors buy the shares and one advises selling.

Israel Chemicals shares have been the worst performers on the benchmark gauge this year after Potash Corp. scrapped a proposed takeover in April and as Uralkali said July 30 it would end the Belarusian joint venture, raising concern of a price war on the fertilizer. The 30-day historic volatility for the fertilizer maker rose to 44.51, compared to 16.13 for the benchmark TA-25 Index. (TA-25)

http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-press/...rt-tel-aviv-mover/  

[url]http://dmnbtext.com/research/...6&docid=1544167426319849616[/url]

UPDATE 2-Uralkali says potash prices to rebound in 2014, ups sales

MOSCOW, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Russia's Uralkali, the world's largest potash producer, has increased market share since breaking up with its partner in Belarus and expects global potash prices to rebound in 2014, the company's head of sales said.

Uralkali is at the centre of a row between Russia and Belarus, triggered when the Russian company quit a sales cartel with state-run Belaruskali in July, seeking to maximise sales volumes and rocking the global potash industry.

Since then, global prices of the crop nutrient have decreased and may fall further this year or in early 2014 when supply contracts for top global consumer China are set, Uralkali sales chief Oleg Petrov told Reuters.

China traditionally sets the lowest potash prices, a benchmark for companies negotiating individual contracts with other countries on the fertiliser ingredient.

"All corrections will occur in 2013, reaching a bottom in early 2014 with the contract in China, after which there will be a definite rebound," Petrov said.

In July, Uralkali said it expected global potash prices to fall to below $300 per tonne in the second half - from $400 at that time - because of its decision to leave the alliance.

The company has since changed its mind and, citing robust global demand, expects prices to stay above $300.

"But there might be a correction from current levels this year because Belaruskali and other producers' attempts to place volumes could put pressure on the prices," Petrov said.

He gave no current average price, but said the domestic price in China of about $330 per tonne delivered at the border was a "guideline" for the company's rail supplies.

The company sold about 2.7 million tonnes of potash in the third quarter of 2013, including 0.7 million tonnes in July, when it was still in the partnership with Belarus.

Some sources familiar with the situation say the Kremlin is eager to repair the rift with Belarus, for which potash is a major source of revenue, and that a large stake in Uralkali could be sold to one of several local bidders.

Several sources, however, have said there are no buyers close to doing a deal as of now.

Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner was detained while visiting Belarus on Aug. 26 and is now under house arrest, facing trial on charges of abuse of office.

Petrov did not comment on the stake sale rumours or on potential options for a settlement to the conflict.

"That's not a commercial question," Petrov said. "But our strategy is the right one for the moment. We had actually lost a lot of the market, and now we're getting it back."

Petrov, who according to colleagues practically used to live on planes, now cannot travel abroad as Belarus has also accused him of professional misconduct and asked Interpol to put him on its wanted list.

"I realise I actually don't need to travel as much as I did before," he said when asked whether the situation had a negative impact on the company's business.

"It doesn't affect my work. We have concluded our contracts with China and India and the spot markets can be dealt with perfectly well without travel by our colleagues in the regional network. (But) it will be necessary to travel again more actively in 2014."

Working alone, Uralkali increased monthly sales to 1 million tonnes in August and September respectively, mainly thanks to the Brazilian and Asian markets. Monthly exports currently stand at around 850,000 tonnes. The company plans to sell similar volumes per month until the end of 2013.

Since the split with Belaruskali, Uralkali's supplies to China have increased modestly to around 250,000 tonnes by rail and sea per month, including about 160,000 tonnes by rail through spot contracts, he said.

Uralkali did not disclose figures on pre-split sales to China.

The company is also supplying between 100,000 tonnes and 150,000 tonnes per month to India, where the price has been adjusted to $375 per tonne from $427 since the break-up of the joint venture.

In Brazil, the price for Uralkali's supplies has fallen to $350-360 per tonne, down $30-40, Petrov said. The company currently supplies 150,000-200,000 tonnes to Brazil per month.

Until the joint venture broke up on July 30, Uralkali used a formula for calculating Russian domestic prices based on its exports. This formula led some analysts to think it had decreased prices for China since July, which the company denies.

"After the split, Belarus offered its own product to some big NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) producers in Russia at the price of 4,600 roubles ($140) per tonne. Uralkali had no choice but to protect its market," Petrov said.

"In the end, Uralkali lowered its price to 5,100 roubles ($160), but this was a one-off and that figure has no connection with the company's export price to China," he added.  

Two fertilizer cartels down; Two to go?

Now comes the big question: how long will Canpotex survive? Or the Moroccan dominance of export phosphate?

Here?s the time-line so far: in August, Uralkali split with Belaruskali. Now, in October, PhosChem dissolves. It was announced this week that U.S. phosphate export association, the 39-year old Phosphate Chemicals Export Association (PhosChem), has disbanded. This company handled the phosphate exports on behalf or Mosaic Co and Potash Corp of Saskatchewan. As The Financial Times explained, the break-up of PhosChem and Belaruskali/Ural kali ?highlights the diverging interests of various fertilizer groups as they pursue market share, and casts a shadow over Canpotex, the potash marketing cartel between PotashCorp, Mosaic and Agrium?.

That is why the global fertilizer feedstock industry is in flux. Canpotex will, of course, survive for some time. And, as we have noted, the Moroccan?s Office Chérifien des Phosphates is planning to ramp up production even if prices remain stagnant.

The potash/phosphate situation has some similarities with rare earths. In that case, China is the cartel but the rest-of-the-world is feverishly trying to provide an alternative. But it is never easy, especially when (as with both rare earths and potash/phosphate) the cartels have the backing of governments. In that regard, it is worth noting that PhosChem was able to operate under the provisions of a piece of law passed by the Congress in 1918, the Webb-Pomerene Act, which allows companies to work together and by-pass the Clayton Ant-Trust Act of 1914 if they are promoting exports. It was intended to aid the American economy at a time of war in Europe. Just last May, for example, PhosChem did a deal to supply 400,000 tonnes of diammonium phosphate to two undisclosed Indian customers between then and September.

You may even stretch the point to include the oil industry. Like Canpotex, PhosChem and the Chinese rare earth system, OPEC was designed to keep prices as high as possible.

Possibly the biggest threat to Canpotex is the possibility of BHP Billiton giving the green light to Jansen in Saskatchewan. But the fertilizer feedstock industry is sure to undergo major changes as more producers enter the market. We are going to see potash being produced in Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Australia and elsewhere. The rare earth grip is proving harder to break than expected, but OPEC?s influence is already diminishing.

The PhosChem break-up was caused, not for any motives of providing a freer market, but because the PhosChem arrangement no longer suited one of the parties. As Reuters reported, Mosaic has other fish to fry. It is forming a joint venture with Saudi Arabia?s Ma?aden and Saudi Basic Industries to supply India with phosphate from Saudi Arabia rather than from Florida. PotashCorp has also increasingly been separating its phosphoric acid business from PhosChem.

According to news reports, the end of PhosChem signalled the end of North American influence in the phosphate market. North Africa, China and the Middle East are increasingly calling the shots.

PhosChem has been shipping through five terminals at Tampa, Florida (Rockport, Port Manatee, Tampaplex, Eastern and Riverview) and one each in Louisiana (Donaldson) and North Carolina (Morehead City).
http://investorintel.com/potash-phosphate-intel/...er-cartels-two-go/
 

Fall in fertilizer prices 'a buying opportunity'
16:40 UK, 3rd Oct 2013, by Agrimoney.com
Openfield urged farmers to exploit depressed fertilizer prices, even as potash giant Uralkali heralded an end to the tumbling in potash values, forecasting a "definite rebound" in 2014.

Openfield, the UK farm co-operative, said that the fall in retail prices of nutrients to their lowest since the depths of the global economic crisis represented a "good opportunity" for farmers who have skimped on fertilizer applications to play catch-up.

"Phosphate and potash markets have seen significant price falls over the past 12 months and are currently trading near to the lows of 2009-10," said Adam Thwaites, a regional fertiliser manager for Openfield, citing a "lack of recent demand" as behind the declines.

"For those who have taken a phosphate and potash holiday in recent years, the current prices represent a good opportunity to redress the balance and avoid depleting soil reserves further."

'Definite rebound'

The comments echo an assessment last week from Gleadell, the UK grain and fertilizer merchant, that for potash, "with market at a three-year low, now is a definite opportunity to buy".

And, separately on Thursday, Russian potash giant Uralkali, whose break-up of the Belarusian Potash company cartel has been central to the tumble in values of potash and other fertilizers, forecast that the market would bottom out early 2014, when a new supply contract with China was expected.

Terms agreed with China, the top potash importer, tend to set benchmarks for other contracts.

After this early-2014 nadir, "there will be a definite rebound", Oleg Petrov, the Uralkali head of sales and marketing, said.

Production rises

Mr Petrov also rowed back from a caution made at the time of the BPC split that potash prices could fall below $300 a tonne, representing a fall of 25% or more.

While failing to make a forecast for the level at which prices will fall too, he flagged a price or about $330 a tonne for potash delivered to the Chinese border as a "guideline" level.

Uralkali revealed a rise in production to 2.7m tonnes in the July-to-September quarter, up 300,000 tonnes quarter on quarter, and 100,000 tonnes year on year.

The group said that it would, after leaving the strictures of the BPC, lift volumes in an effort to offset in tonnage what it would lose in lower prices.

http://m.agrimoney.com/news/...prices-a-buying-opportunity--6344.html  

http://marketrealist.com/2013/10/...es-volume-outlook-will-temporary/

Why weak 3rd-quarter potash sales volume will only be temporary
Oct 3, 2013 3:43 pm

The importance of sales volume

Companies" sales and earnings revisions often have significant impact on share prices. Sometimes companies will announce revisions before earnings calls if they"re significant. When earnings are expected to be worse than initially mentioned, share prices can take a hit. Conversely, when management releases upbeat revisions, share prices often jump.

Companies revising sales volume down

Several companies have been announcing pricing and volume cuts in the potash industry. These include Mosaic Co. (MOS), which lowered volume guidance from 1.8 to 2.0 million to 1.45 to 1.65 million on September 17. Realized prices were revised downward to between $330 and $340 per mt (metric tonne), which is a drop from the average price of $368 per mt recorded for the second quarter of this year. Although Agrium Inc. (AGU) didn"t comment on price changes, sales volumes are expected to be as much as 30% lower than a year ago on September 23.
 

Alta Corporation Upgrades Potash Corp Rating to Sector Perform with Kerimov's 22% Stake Buyout
by Erika Janowicz20 hours ago
Alta Corp analyst John Chu raised the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) rating from Underperform to Sector Perform.

Chu noted that the buyout of Uralkali's Suleiman Kerimov 22% stake is almost completed. Wednesday, Dow Jones reported that this stake was said to be aimed at a local buyer. With this buyout, the analyst commented that this will gradually lead to the ?rebirth? of the BPC cartel.

In the note, Chu wrote that the demand for potash remains low in this sector but Belarus could help ?at least stem? the decline in potash price.

http://m.benzinga.com/article/3965801
 

Danke dafür!

Kann dich leider zur Zeit nicht bewerten!!

"Von Ihnen kommen bereits 7 der letzten 20 (oder weniger) positiven Bewertungen für thairat."

Die Bewertungsbegrenzung halte ich für unnötig hier bei Ariva!
Warum darf ich interessant Beiträge nicht bewerten egal wie oft??

 

Seeking Alpha

The recent events in the potash market have been all over the spectrum as it relates to both good news and bad. Apparently the Indians have negotiated lower contract prices with the break-up of BPC and one has to suspect that the Brazilians and Chinese will also see lower prices when they begin their annual negotiations. Although that was the bad news earlier in the week, The Wall Street Journal also has reported that the Uralkali stake is very likely to stay in local hands and many believe that this will keep a tight lid on supply. No one wants to flood the market and it is in everyone's best interests to keep prices high. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan ( POT ) and Mosaic ( MOS ) have been to investor favorites to play this cartel break-up being a nonevent, and those are the two best ways in our mind to trade this. We view Potash as the better long-term bet and Mosaic as the play for the short-term.

The past month has been good to investors who bought after the initial sell-off. If the fallout from the cartel break-up remains contained to create minimal damage to pricing power, then these two names could rally significantly.

http://dmnbtext.com/research/...f83ea76&docid=7963362250653230240  

finden.
-Offensichtlich beginnt man in USA / Canada die positiven Entwicklungen und Chancen  viel deutlicher zu sehen als hier bei Uns. Wir lassen uns lieber von Focusmoney, Aktionär und Aktiencheck verunsichern.-Angst war noch nie ein guter Anlageberater...
Danke nochmal für die interessaanten Quellen!


 

Bei dir gehts mir auch so wie mit thairat!

"Von Ihnen kommen bereits 7 der letzten 20 (oder weniger) positiven Bewertungen für methusalem."

Leider :-((  

Aber ich kann euch beide bewerten, guter Newsfeed, lese hier immer wieder gerne rein. ;)

Nur schön weiter so, die anderen Threads sind sehr grenzwertig.

 

Ich ignoriere den Aktionär systematisch. Ich gehe nie auf deren Internetseite und werde mich davor hüten, das Magazin zu kaufen.

Die Leute haben zu oft daneben gelegen mit ihren Prognosen. Statt einen Fehler zuzugeben, wird die Prognose klammheimlich korrigiert nach dem Motto: "was interessiert mich mein Geschwätz von gestern".

Es ist ein Käseblatt.

 

http://www.agweb.com/mobile/newsdetail.aspx?ArticleId=343317

Uralkali Backpedals on Potash Price Cuts

A Uralkali spokesman said yesterday that potash prices will not fall as far as they had originally thought. The new benchmark was to have been at $300.00/tonne, but that estimation was forged when friction between Belarus and Russia was at its height. India has since tendered with Uralkali for $350/tonne and China is rumored to have signed on for $250/tonne with a $76/tonne delivery fee. That would put the delivered China price at $316/tonne. There are those who would question that figure, however, as very few product tonnes have shipped under the new price.

Detained CEO Baumgertner reportedly spilled his guts to Belorussian authorities and has now been moved to house arrest in a Minsk apartment. But Baumgertner is not the one Belarus was gunning for. Sulieman Kerimov, Uralkali's largest stakeholder, is on the run. Speculation has it that high ranking officials at both companies were privy to a degree of 'under the table money'. But Kerimov got greedy and overstepped his bounds.

Belarus has made it clear that they are willing to restart the joint venture as long as the upper management of Uralkali changes, and Putin delivers Kerimov. From the Russian side, Putin is playing his cards close to his vest. A joint venture is good for Uralkali and even better for Belaruskali who would struggle without an export ally. As it is, Uralkali supplies 17% of the world's potash with Belaruskali at 14%. Canpotex now sits at the top of the heap supplying 35% of the world's potash sendouts, and is the #1 supplier to the United States.

 

 

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/...204745.ece?homepage=true

Potash market: India to gain from global shake-up
Updated: October 6, 2013 22:54

India"s quest to reduce its fertilizer subsidy in the near term may get a boost from a very unlikely quarter: A corporate tussle in the global potash industry is likely to result in a substantial slump in international potash prices.

Further, over the medium to long term, pressure on prices could boost domestic consumption of potash and reduce the excessive use of low-priced urea, thereby, ensuring more balanced fertilizer application.

Highly cartelised international potash market was shaken up in July after Russian producer Uralkali abruptly announced that, with immediate effect, it would stop exports through Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) and would, instead, henceforth direct all its exports through Switzerland-based Uralkali Trading. Belarus and Russia have together had a strong grip on the world potash market since 2005 when BPC was established. BPC is one of the two top global marketing alliances for potash (owned 50 per cent by Uralkali, 45 per cent by Belaruskali, and 5 per cent by Belarusian Railways), the other being a group of North American producers. Together, Belarus, Russia and Canada dominate global potash production, and account for about 75 per cent of global trade.

Auszug:
The market price of the contract is expected to be about $350 a tonne cfr (cost and freight), as compared to the first half 2013 seaborne contract price to China of $400 a tonne cfr. Uralkali is also in talks with Indian buyers.  

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