PetroChina May Post a Fifth Year of Record Net Income (Update1)
By Ying Lou
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co., China's biggest oil company, may post a fifth year of record profit because of higher prices, production and demand as the nation's economy expanded at the quickest pace in 11 years.
Net income may have risen 12 percent to 156.8 billion yuan ($20.2 billion) last year, based on the median estimate of nine analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Earnings probably quadrupled since 2001. Beijing-based PetroChina reports on March 19.
PetroChina, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are benefiting from a five-year bull-run in oil that pushed prices to a record average of $61.05 a barrel in New York last year. PetroChina produced more oil and natural gas than ever before in 2006 as it strained to meet demand in the world's fastest-growing major energy market.
``Combining production, expansion and oil prices with their continuous efforts to lower costs, I think PetroChina will deliver stable and decent earnings growth going forward,'' said Winson Fong, who manages $2 billion as chief investment officer at SG Asset Management in Singapore. ``I remain quite positive about the medium, long-term growth outlook.''
Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, said Feb. 1 2006 profit rose 9.4 percent to $39.5 billion, a record for a U.S. company. Shell said the same day its full-year profit reached $25.4 billion, the highest for a U.K.-listed company.
Kazakhstan Fields
Chinese oil companies spent $15 billion buying oil fields and oil companies in 100 countries in five years, McKinsey & Co. said in an August report. That's led to intensified rivalry over energy resources with neighbors India, Japan and South Korea and prompted concern from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP Plc that they may lose reserves to Asian state-run companies willing to pay higher prices.
PetroChina Chairman Chen Geng last year paid parent China National Petroleum Corp. $2.74 billion for 67 percent of PetroKazakhstan Inc. The acquisition may boost the listed unit's production by 5 percent annually for the next five years and help replace depleted reserves.
``Management will likely deliver reassuring forward guidance, especially on the reserve replacement and natural gas development fronts,'' Gordon Kwan, head of China oil and gas research at CLSA Ltd. said today. Exploration successes and an end to losses at PetroChina's refineries will limit concern that higher costs and capital spending will erode profit, he wrote in a note to today.
Increased Production
Output in 2006 rose 5.2 percent to the equivalent of 2.9 million barrels of oil a day, the company said Jan. 15. The average price for PetroChina's oil jumped 24 percent to $59.76 a barrel, pushing net income beyond the record 133.4 billion yuan earned in 2005.
Oil demand in China, the biggest consumer of the fuel after the U.S., rose 9.3 percent last year as the economy grew 10.7 percent, the most since 1995. Oil consumption climbed to 6.9 million barrels a day, the Ministry of Commerce said Feb. 14. Domestic production rose 1.7 percent to 183.7 million tons, while imports of crude and oil products jumped 20 percent to 162.9 million tons, or 47 percent of total demand.
Still, PetroChina's earnings momentum is slowing. A 12 percent gain in net income for 2006 would be less than half the 28 percent jump posted a year earlier.
The increasing proportion of gas the company produces may curb gains in profit, Credit Suisse Group analysts Prashant Gokhale, Edwin Pang and Horace Tse said in a report yesterday.
`Low Margins'
PetroChina's 2006 oil production rose 0.8 percent to 829.7 million barrels, while gas output surged 24 percent to 1.38 trillion cubic feet.
``PetroChina's production is oil-biased, but the future is gas-heavy,'' the Credit Suisse analysts wrote. The business of supplying gas in China ``has low margins,'' they said, downgrading the stock to ``underperform'' from ``hold.''
The shares, which surged 74 percent in 2006, have lost more than a fifth of their value in Hong Kong this year, compared with the 5 percent decline in the city's benchmark Hang Seng Index.
U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett, PetroChina's largest foreign investor, is under pressure to get rid of the 1.1 percent stake his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owns in the Chinese oil company.
Berkshire shareholder Judith Porter has submitted a ballot proposal aimed at forcing Berkshire to divest its stake in PetroChina because the company's state-owned parent operates in Sudan, a nation accused of genocide. Investors will vote on the proposal at Berkshire's May 5 annual meeting.
PetroChina may set a further record by holding China's largest domestic share sale, raising funds for expansion. The company has asked regulators to approve a 30 billion yuan listing on the country's so-called A-share market, the official Xinhua news agency reported March 8.
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