Aixtron purpose of this thread

Ich kann nur noch mit den Kopf schüttel, was hier gerade mit Aixtron los ist. Die Analis haben haben ständig auf "Buy" und ziele von 39,40,42 und 52 ausgespuckt. Kann es sein, das die Investoren so ein gebäsche kritisch sehen und dann auf den Verkaufsknopf drücken, weil sie den Analis nicht glauben ???

Gruss KHLI  

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/05/why-electric-vehicle-chip-stocks-aehr-test-systems/

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/05/why-electric-vehicle-chip-stocks-aehr-test-systems/

à plus

Jossy

 

da war baggo wieder mal etwas schneller ....

à bientôt

Jossy

 

Ich denke das war es erst mal mit unserer stolzen Aktie Aixtron. Der Bericht von fool.com ist schon sehr hart für die Investierten. Ich gehe davon aus, das die Aixtron weiter abstürzen wird. Ich bin echt gespannt, was die Analis jetzt für ausreden haben werden. Ich halte trotzdem viel von Aixtron Zukunftsversion. Frage ist nur, halten oder teil verkaufen??

Grus BigGeld 

 

https://www.ideas-daily.de/2023/oktober/kw-41/13-oktober/marktidee/?utm_source=finanzen-net&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=ideas-daily&utm_content=marktidee&utm_term=20231013

bon week-end

Jossy

 

https://www.ideas-daily.de/2023/oktober/kw-41/13-oktober/marktidee/?utm_source=finanzen-net&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=ideas-daily&utm_content=marktidee&utm_term=20231013

bon week-end

Jossy

 

NEW YORK (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Das Analysehaus Jefferies hat die Einstufung für Aixtron auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 52 Euro belassen. Analystin Olivia Honychurch rechnet bei den kurzfristigen Auftragstrends mit etwas Volatilität. Dies schrieb sie in einer am Donnerstag vorliegenden Studie vor den Zahlen des Chip-Ausrüsters für das dritte Quartal./ajx/zb

Kann mir bitte einer erklären wann das Kursziel von 52 ? erreicht werden soll??? 5 oder 10 Jahre ???

BigGeld  

 

I take it that she implied downside in Q3 order.  That wording seems to be causing the stock to tank.

Contrary to the analyst's prediction, I expect very strong Q3 and Q4 order patterns.  I believe the 2023 total orders would be close to the upper end of the guidance, i.e. 700m.

Why I say that?  The Q2 inventory/Order backlog ratio is 0.81.  Over the last three years the average ratio was 0.57 +- 0.1.  

The CFO commented in the Q1 2023 CC: "..looking at the ratio of our inventories as a percentage of order backlog being at 50% to 60% - this seems to be a reasonable range..." and "..As we are preparing for further growth, I would not expect inventories to significantly go down.."

Using inventory number of ~300m and a ratio of 0.57, the order backlog should be 300/0.57=526m by year end, that is another 114m increase of order backlog from the Q2 number of 412m.

So the H2 order intake has to be very healthy, and I don't see why the Q3 orders would be to the downside.

I believe Aixtron tightened its order recognition standard due to export license over the last few Q's which is why the  order backlog number was negatively impacted artificially.  30-50% of the 2023 revenue needs export license according to Felix.  I believe that it is getting back to normal, and the order number will jump significantly in H2. Just my opinion.  

The ratio started to go above 0.6 from Q4/2022 and is likely due to the export license issue which surfaced in Q3/2022.  I hope the ratio will start coming down from Q3/2023 mostly due to increase of order backlog and some modest decrease of inventory.  Remember that in Q2/2023 the inventory was 333m. I hope to see it go down to 300m by year end.  

In this chart I have included the advanced payments/Backlog. The ratio stays pretty constantly in 0.3-0.4 , in contrast to the inventories/backlog  which ramps noticeably in 2022Q4.  I can speculate that Aixtron decided to build inventories without getting the firm orders which would come with advanced payments. Is it because Aixtron anticipated very large orders coming in and wanted to build inventories beforehand? Export licenses cannot explain this because they were largely resolved and shipped in Q2/2023.  If Aixtron is building large inventories without the advanced payments, we could expect a very robust Q4 and into 2024.  Perhaps Aixtron could clarify in the 10/26 CC.
 

Management answered all questions in a positive and very convincing fashion.

Question centered on:
- guidance 2023 (order intake, revenue, margin, R&D spend)
- guidance 2024 (guesses on growth, and margin)
- export licenses
- new customers
- new systems

Prepared remarks from Felix
- Guidance confirmed on all metrics
- Customer project support order intake of 220 Million to the guidance midpoint
- Export licenses take longer than in the past, but no problems
- G10 with particle und uniformity advantage
- G10 GaN very strong demand from existing and new customers (previously not planetary). Uniformity of the 150mm batch produced wafer now better than the 150mm single wafer
- Export controls: Aixtron is not affected from US announced export controls. BAFA has a temporary staffing issue resulting in longer time delays to getting export licenses issued.

Q&A

Exiter: 220Million order intake to get to midpoint of the guidance? Growth in 2024 single or double digits and margin increase 2024?
A:          customer supported projects, broad base not one deal make or break it. More of the same, but much more
              2024: not prepared to give guidance, but growth drivers are intact and market share is intact

DB ? Michael Kuhn: SiC new customer update promised for Q3
A:          repeat orders from existing customers, new entrants. ?Customer wins always announced in a PR with the client? in Q4

2024 supply chain is relaxing: Lead times coming down and inventory levels decreasing
MicroLED 10% in 2023 and growth expected in 2024 as a new customer will come online
R&D: ? 20 Million the new normal
Order intake drop in Q3? Existing  customers wanting to test G10 and therefore delaying order placement into Q4. Orders are incoming

SiC:
Tool uniformity how can that be proven? Ask our clients or come to our labs.
Is dual sourcing happening? Market growth (multi year opportunity) in the coming 2-4 years will be coming form new vendors, not from the company that commands the lion share of the existing market (TEL)
Therefore there might be a side by side comparison of tools single versus batch wafers.
SiC is a simple deposit, therefore clients might qualify up to 4 or 5 vendors to avoid supply chain issues down the line.
When will the decision for a factory size order have to be made regarding the necessary lead times? ?You will hear from us this quarter?.

Export licenses

Purely a paperwork issue. After some time (new staff hired) it will be back to normal
Süss (intensified scrutiny) different from Aixtron, who experience staff related delays of the regular approval process.

Regards
 baggo-mh

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644189-aixtron-se-aixxf-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=33160438&messageid=2800&serial=33160438.56&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=33160438.56

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Baggo, thanks a lot for your summary and the link to the transcript! As always very much appreciated!

I listened to the record (couldn't do this live) as well.

All in all a positive earnings call confirming the positive outlook over the next 1-2 years.
Again underscored the expected multiyear growth story on power electronics. However, I think there will be quarters and even years of consolidation which will affect the stock price of course.

Maybe it's worth thinking of taking some wins from the table when the price is driven a way too high.  

 

Wolfspeed stock up 18% today after last night's earnings and beats on all fronts.

Surprised that today people seem to focus on the negativity of Onsemi while ignored the positivity from Wolfspeed which is the biggest SiC pure play and very bullish for the next few years. Investment plans unchanged by Wolfspeed and even Onsemi.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...eed-inc-nyse-wolf-q1-132928826.html  

ich bin immernoch vom absturz von Aixtron geschockt, aber Sie geben mir leichte Hoffnung, das Aixtron wieder in tritt bekommt.  

PlayNitride and AUO to build 6-inch microLED CoC production line

https://www.ledinside.com/news/2023/11/2023_11_01_02  

Wolfspeed's SiC Epi Manufacturing:

Recent Purchase of Epitaxy Facility in Farmers Branch, Texas

Extending our epitaxy capacity:

Establishes multi-site epi footprint?
Automated tools?
Initial ramp beginning in middle of 2024?
Spans 0.6 km2 (16.28 acres)
Site covers more than 26,000 m2 (280,000 ft2)?
Will support 150 mm and 200 mm wafers

https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/about/manufacturing-leadership/

This Wolfspeed's new SiC epi facility seems to have escaped attention, at least it is new news to me.  With the initial ramp in middle of 2024 epi tools must be placed pretty soon, presumably from Aixtron.

 

CWL1: if which I could give you 20 stars for this.
Not even one is possible.

if you now take the normal lead time of 9 - 12 months it seems impossible to get a middle of 2024 deadline accomplished with Aixtron tools....... unless you have:

- knowledge of the customers intend 
- inventory on hand check
- flexible production space check
- flexible workforce check

Thnaks so much for your very valuable contributions!!!

Regards
 baggo-mh

 

https://www.ledsmagazine.com/leds-ssl-design/article/14301056/ams-osram-sells-and-leases-back-its-vital-micro-led-plant-in-malaysia?o_eid=3332A7310467C1X&oly_enc_id=3332A7310467C1X&rdx.ident[pull]=omeda|3332A7310467C1X&utm_campaign=CPS231107265&utm_medium=email&utm_source=LED+News+%26+Insights

sell and lease back opens the door wide for better cash flow, higher share price and pot. quicker releasation. My money is still on Aixtron.

Gruß
baggo-mh

 

Weakness of Aixtron stock is also related to the concerns on EV's and SiC. To understand the true status, you should read the earnings CC's from OnSemi and Wolfspeed:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...ation-nasdaq-q3-2023-133144771.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...eed-inc-nyse-wolf-q1-132928826.html  

TORRANCE, Calif., Nov. 09, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) ? Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (Nasdaq: NVTS), the industry leader in next-generation power semiconductors, today announced unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023.

?I am pleased to announce another record quarter for Navitas as our gallium nitride and silicon carbide technologies continue to displace legacy power silicon in traditional markets and enable and accelerate new energy markets,? said Gene Sheridan, CEO and co-founder. ?It?s a very exciting time at Navitas as we launch four major new technology platforms across GaN and SiC. We expect Navitas? revenues to far exceed market growth rates in 2024 and for years to come.?  

Stock ups 10% today.

It is a customer of Aixtron: posts 1513, 1514, 1517.

https://navitassemi.com/...nces-third-quarter-2023-financial-results/  

pretty frustrating when the stock of an Aixtron customer is going up while the supplier is dropping or not moving much