Plug Power - konspirativ und informativ

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26.02.21 08:39
107

4349 Postings, 3189 Tage ede.de.knipserPlug Power - konspirativ und informativ

Der neue Plug Power Thread.

Lasst uns diesen Thread zusammen gestalten.
Bringt reichlich Informationen hier ein, verlinkt Meldungen und Neuigkeiten rund um den in Zukunft größten Wasserstoffkonzern der Welt!

Lasst uns hier Meinungen, Gedanken und Bedenken austauschen. Schreibt eure Kursziele und eure Strategie hier rein. Stellt Chartbilder ein und lasst uns über GAPs, Trendlinie, Widerstände und Unterstützung diskutieren.

Aber tut uns alle einen Gefallen!
Begründet und belegt all diese Aussagen nachvollziehbar!!!

Gemeinsam unterstützen wir uns bei einer Entscheidungsfindung. Findet hier Halt bei Korrekturen und freuen wir uns zusammen über hoffentlich immer weiter steigende Kurse.

Lasst uns freundlich und hoffentlich miteinander diskutieren und diesen Thead zu etwas Besonderem machen!

Herzlich willkommen.

ede

 
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10263 Postings ausgeblendet.

09.12.24 22:58
1

439 Postings, 4044 Tage kyron7htx1Plug

Übersetzung ins Deutsche:

Die Finalisierung der Wasserstoff-45V-Steuergutschrift steht vor der Tür: Diese Unternehmen sollten Sie auf Ihre Beobachtungsliste setzen.
9. Dezember 2024, 15:36 Uhr ? von Ashlee Vogenthaler

Das US-Energieministerium (DOE) treibt seine ehrgeizige Initiative für sauberen Wasserstoff voran, die sich um das Programm Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs (H2Hubs) dreht, um den Übergang zu einer sauberen Energiewirtschaft zu beschleunigen. Mit 8 Milliarden Dollar an Fördermitteln aus dem überparteilichen Infrastrukturgesetz hat das Energieministerium bereits 7 Milliarden Dollar für sieben H2Hubs bereitgestellt, um die Produktion, Speicherung und Nutzung von sauberem Wasserstoff voranzutreiben. Dies steht im Einklang mit den nationalen Zielen, die Treibhausgasemissionen zu reduzieren und bis 2050 Netto-Null-Emissionen zu erreichen.

Die Steuergutschriftrichtlinien gemäß Abschnitt 45V müssen jedoch noch fertiggestellt werden. Die IRS hat dies zwei Jahre lang verzögert und angekündigt, dass sie bis Ende 2024 eine endgültige Regelung haben wird. Abschnitt 45V gewährt qualifizierten Projekten, deren Bau vor 2033 beginnt, eine Steuergutschrift für 10 Jahre nach der Inbetriebnahme von bis zu 3 Dollar pro Kilogramm. Die Höhe der Gutschrift richtet sich nach der Intensität der Kohlenstoffproduktion. Die IRS wurde wegen ihrer vorgeschlagenen strengen Anforderungen kritisiert, die nach Ansicht einiger die Durchführbarkeit der Projekte beeinträchtigen könnten. Darüber hinaus hat diese Verzögerung Unsicherheit über die Zukunft des Programms geschaffen und Investitionen ins Stocken gebracht, die sich auf den Erfolg dieser Projekte auswirken. Die endgültige Festlegung der Steuergutschrift soll die Bedenken der Stakeholder berücksichtigen, indem wirtschaftliche Rentabilität mit Umweltzielen in Einklang gebracht wird.

Investoren in saubere Energie haben ein Auge auf ein Unternehmen geworfen, das diesen Sommer angekündigt hat, dass es die Steuergutschriften nach Abschnitt 45V für die Produktion von sauberem Wasserstoff in seiner nächsten vierteljährlichen Finanzmitteilung anerkennen wird. Der CEO von Plug Power (PLUG) behauptet, dass sein Werk in Georgia bereits die drei Säulen für die Erzeugung von kohlenstofffreiem Strom erfüllt, und erklärt: ?Wir erhalten bereits US-Steuergutschriften für sauberen Wasserstoff, um H2 für fast 2 USD/kg herzustellen.? Dies könnte für das Unternehmen aufgrund der bevorstehenden endgültigen Festlegung der Steuergutschriftrichtlinien erneut ins Spiel kommen, da die Regeln für die Inanspruchnahme des Höchstsatzes von 3 USD/kg zu dem Zeitpunkt, als Marsh sagte, er werde die Gutschrift anerkennen, noch nicht endgültig waren.

Einige andere Unternehmen, die voraussichtlich ebenfalls erheblich von dieser Steuergutschrift betroffen sein werden, sind Air Products (APD), Bloom Energy (BE) und FuelCell Energy (FCEL).
Feedback geben
 

10.12.24 08:51

4497 Postings, 1696 Tage SquideyeLöschung


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10.12.24 09:00
1

4497 Postings, 1696 Tage SquideyeThe NY Times...

A $400 Billion Clean Energy Program Is Racing to Get Money Out the Door.

Some fear Donald Trump could freeze the Energy Department?s loan office, which supports electric vehicles, geothermal, nuclear and other novel technologies.

At the heart of the Biden administration?s efforts to advance clean energy is a $400 billion lending program that has backed dozens of projects across the nation, including battery factories in Ohio and Tennessee, the revival of a shuttered nuclear reactor in Michigan and a novel rooftop solar expansion in Puerto Rico.

Now, the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy is hustling to get money out the door before Donald J. Trump returns to the White House.

Mr. Trump hasn?t outlined his plans for the Energy Department. But some Republicans in Congress and advisers like Vivek Ramaswamy are already scrutinizing the loan office as they hunt for ways to slash federal spending. The conservative policy blueprint known as Project 2025 recommended that the loan office be ?eliminated or reformed.?

Facing the prospect of drastic changes, the Biden administration has been working to finalize as many loans as possible before the changeover in January.

Under President Biden, the office has announced roughly $54 billion in loans or loan guarantees, which is still just a small portion of its lending authority. Of that, $19 billion was announced in the weeks after the election, including a conditional loan to help Rivian build an electric car factory in Georgia and a loan guarantee for an enormous power line in the Midwest.

Yet the office has closed only $13.5 billion of the deals to date ? the rest are conditional commitments that could be delayed or halted by a new administration.

?They see the writing on the wall,? said Kennedy Nickerson, a former policy adviser to the loan programs office and now a vice president for energy at Capstone, a research firm. ?They want to get out as much money as possible just to safeguard as much progress as they can.?

Some companies worry about being left in limbo.

?We?d prefer to get this done sooner rather than later,? said Andy Marsh, chief executive of Plug Power, a company that aims to convert renewable electricity into hydrogen fuels. In May, Plug received a conditional commitment for a $1.6 billion loan guarantee to build up to six facilities, but it has yet to finalize the deal. ?It?s easier to keep the momentum going if we don?t have to start all over with a new team.?

EVgo, an electric car charging company that was awarded a $1 billion loan guarantee in October, said in a statement that it was ?working diligently? to close its deal.

The election results loomed over an annual gathering convened by the loan program in Washington this week, where 1,800 people across the clean energy industry discussed everything from electric car charging networks to sustainable aviation fuels.

Many executives said they hoped that the Trump administration would keep the loan program running. Even if the office de-emphasized climate change, it would still have hundreds of billions of dollars in loan authority left to support technologies like nuclear power or critical mineral mining that could boost U.S. energy security and reduce reliance on China, they said.

?If we have any sort of significant slowdown over the next four years, China is going to have our lunch, dinner and breakfast,? said James Calaway, the chairman of Ioneer, a firm trying to open a lithium mine in Nevada with the help of a not-yet-final $700 million federal loan. (China currently dominates global production of lithium, a key ingredient in batteries.)

The Loan Programs Office was created in 2005 to help emerging energy technologies, which often have trouble getting conventional financing, become commercially viable. It gained notoriety after it lent $535 million in 2009 to Solyndra, a solar firm that went bankrupt two years later. But it also gave a crucial $465 million loan in 2010 to Tesla, which later grew into an electric vehicle powerhouse.

Mostly dormant during the first Trump administration, the office was revived under President Biden. It initially had $40 billion in loan authority, but that ballooned to more than $400 billion in 2022 when Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act.

Jigar Shah, an outspoken former solar entrepreneur who has called clean energy the ?largest wealth-creation opportunity of our lifetime,? has led the office over the past four years and used its financial muscle to reshape the American energy landscape.

The program has access to thousands of experts at the Energy Department who can scrutinize novel technologies that commercial banks find too bewildering.

In recent years, it has focused on building up a domestic supply chain for electric vehicles to counteract China?s stranglehold on battery production. More than half of the office?s deals since 2021 ? almost $34 billion ? have gone toward electric vehicle and battery factories or companies that produce key components like graphite.

Mr. Shah says the country is on track to have enough battery manufacturing to supply growing domestic sales, up from almost nothing four years ago. ?It was so impressive, from a standing stop, how fast this happened,? he said in an interview Thursday.

The office has also backed novel technologies that could ultimately prove valuable, such as a plant in South Dakota that could turn cornstarch into jet fuel, or a company that uses lasers to spot methane leaks from oil and gas wells.

This week, the office finalized a $303 million loan guarantee to Eos Energy, a Pennsylvania-based firm that makes a zinc-based battery for electric grids that can store power longer than conventional lithium-ion batteries.

?It?s great to have that done,? said Joe Mastrangelo, the chief executive of Eos. He said the process of being vetted by the office was ?arduous,? but that doing so helped validate the technology to investors.

Mr. Shah had even bigger plans for the future. The loan office is still reviewing 212 applications worth $324 billion and has released detailed road maps ? written in conjunction with industry ? for scaling up technologies like advanced nuclear power, geothermal and smarter electric grids.

But much of that work will be left for the next administration.

Some experts wonder if a Trump administration might retain the program but reorient it to serve a different agenda. That could mean less money for electric vehicles, which Mr. Trump has bashed, and more money for technologies like carbon capture or geothermal, which some of Mr. Trump?s energy advisers have supported.

?It?s very obvious that doing big things is a bipartisan effort,? Mr. Shah said. ?I?m super excited about how much interest there is from the incoming administration to keep a lot of this going, whether it?s doing nuclear, enhanced geothermal, carbon capture, aviation fuels.?

Asked about the Trump administration?s plans, Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the transition team, said in an email that ?the Department of Energy led by Chris Wright will roll back the Biden administration?s burdensome regulations on our energy industry and ensure every taxpayer dollar at the agency is being used to deliver on President Trump?s promise to restore America?s energy dominance.?

Some companies that haven?t finalized their loans say their projects should hold bipartisan appeal.

In Indiana, Wabash Valley Resources is planning to produce low-carbon fertilizer by burying the emissions from its factory 7,000 feet underground. The company has received a conditional commitment for a $1.5 billion loan guarantee, but it might not be finalized before January.

?I can see why some people worry, but we don?t worry,? said Nalin Gupta, the company?s chief executive. ?We think this project will sell itself,? he said, adding that it would help reduce ammonia imports from China and help revitalize a former coal community that was carried by Mr. Trump in November.

Some lawmakers have criticized the loan office for picking up its pace. On Wednesday, three House Republicans sent a letter to Mr. Shah demanding that it ?cease its campaign to quickly distribute federal funding before the incoming administration takes office.?

?The last-minute drive to expedite loans exposes the federal government ? and American taxpayers ? to tremendous risk,? said the letter, which originated with Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Republican of Washington, who leads the House Committee on Energy and Commerce.

Mr. Shah said his office was not loosening its controls in the waning days. ?Our process remains the same,? he said. ?We continue to do everything with a fine-toothed comb. But right now, borrowers are sufficiently motivated to move more quickly.?

The loan office is profitable, with losses of just 3 percent, in line with commercial banks. Mr. Shah has said the office learned its lessons from Solyndra and installed more safeguards.

Mr. Shah expects that much of the loan office?s work will prove durable. Many of the 212 applicants still seeking hundreds of billions of dollars in loans are in Republican-controlled states and are pursuing solutions to problems that both parties are concerned about like the rapid growth in electricity demand.

?What these companies are doing is so important that I just think it?ll be unstoppable,? Mr. Shah said.

Quelle @ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/climate/...ar-batteries-trump.html  

10.12.24 12:05
1

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsoneben diese Mittel brauch die Branche

allerdings glaube ich gar nicht wirklich das Donald genau da so dran dreht,denn dort ist der Gewinn der Zukunft zu machen für seine " Anleger " die er so um sich hat.

Will gar nicht wissen was da vorher an Bitcoin Optionen gesetzt wurde, sein Gehalt braucht Donald ja nun wirklich nicht .

Auch ein D Trump weiß was an Wasserstoff dranhängt  

10.12.24 12:08

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonfür Anleger dürfte 3,44 Dollar so ein markanter

Punkt werden denke ich mal , aber bei dem Wert immer fraglich wann es wieder mal kippt, wie so oft schon , wenns heute und morgen hält wäre das mal eine Ausnahme ( aber warum nicht auch mal so ).

Spannend ist das so von aussen gesehen auch, aber ohne Nervenverlust.  

10.12.24 14:41
1

624 Postings, 1566 Tage SoIsses01Wenn Trump

die Energiebehörde dann doch untouched lässt, was er sicher tun wird, denn es gibt genug Republikanisch geführte Staaten in USA die gegen den Klimawandel vorgehen, dann hebt PP Aktienkurs wie eine rakete ab. Vorher auch schon ein bisschen wenn die 1,7 Milliarden Dollar fliesen bevor Trump im Amt sein wird. Aber so richtig wenn sich nach ein paar Monaten zeigten wird, dass Trump anderen Spielfeldern das Wasser abgraben wird. Da werden wir dann ganz schnell die 10 Euro sehen.....nmM  

10.12.24 14:57

624 Postings, 1566 Tage SoIsses01Das Geld beginnt zu fliessen

Die US Behörden fangen an auszuzahlen bevor Trumpi  kommt. Es beginnt nun mit dem Chips Act und die Energiebehörde wird sicher bald folgen und PP die 1,7 Milliarden überweisen.....

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/der_boersen_tag/...rticle25421290.html

14:34h
Trump zuvorgekommen: Staatsmilliarden für Micron-Chipfabriken Micron Technology
Der Chipkonzern Micron Technology erhält einen staatlichen Zuschuss in Höhe von mehr als 6,1 Milliarden US-Dollar für den Bau von drei Chipfabriken. Vizepräsidentin Kamala Harris gab bekannt, dass das Handelsministerium den Zuschuss bewilligt habe. Micron will über einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren bis zu 125 Milliarden Dollar in New York und Idaho investieren.
Die Finanzierung ist Teil des sogenannten Chips Act, eines fast 53 Milliarden Dollar schweren Regierungsprogramms, das 2022 verabschiedet wurde, um die heimische Halbleiterproduktion anzukurbeln. Die Behörden versuchen, einen Großteil der geplanten Zuschüsse noch vor dem Amtsantritt des designierten US-Präsidenten Donald Trump zu vergeben. Trump hat gedroht, den Chips Act aufzuheben.  

10.12.24 15:31

3746 Postings, 1637 Tage slim_nesbitLöschung


Moderation
Zeitpunkt: 12.12.24 14:47
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10.12.24 15:34

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonkippt es heute schon ?

wäre  wieder mal zu früh für Aktionäre die aktiv sind, na ja noch ist alles offen ,aber irgendwas ist wieder im
Busch

$2.5503
-0.1197
-4.48%
Dec 10, 2024 9:33 AM ET

kann man aber eh nicht ändern, ohne News eher ein Spielball



 

10.12.24 15:45

212 Postings, 432 Tage MogelpackungBloom als

Peer ebenfalls mit 8% minus.  

10.12.24 18:02

208 Postings, 1746 Tage SchlagergottÄrgerlich

Slim, leider schon wieder falsch. Selbst Fraunhofer sagt 15 bis 20 l und zwar einschließlich gewisser Verluste und Kühlung. Komisch genau wie ich es sagte...

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/...r-nachhaltige-produktion-auf.html  

10.12.24 21:53

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonAlso doch keine Tendenz

eher wieder mal so ein rauf und runter nach paar Tagen , war spannend aber auch nur wieder " normal " , der CEO darf weitermachen

$2.50
-0.17
-6.37%
 

11.12.24 07:47

208 Postings, 1746 Tage SchlagergottSpekulatius

Der Anstieg ist ohne jede News von PP gekommen.  Und nun nehmen die, die ihre 20 bis 30 Prozent in 3 Tagen gemacht haben eben die Gewinne mit. Nachvollziehbar.

Die X PR Abteilung ist merkwürdigst still in den letzten Tagen. Das könnte sich schon bald zu einer dreifachen good news verdichten. 1. DoE über 1,7 Mrd, 2. Tax Credit für konkurrenzfähige Erzeugung, 3. Inbetriebnahme der nächsten Fabrik in Louisiana.

Wobei man zu 1. mittlerweile erstaunt ist, wie wenig da ausgegeben wird, wenn man betrachtet, wer da alles 6 bis 10 Mrd. rübergeschoben bekommt.  

11.12.24 09:39

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonklar auf die

1,6 Milliarden Darlehen + Steurgutschrift + ....+ spekulieren i neuen " Anleger " ja nur, mit Wsserstoff oder der Firma oder der Umwelt haben da viele nichts zu tun gegenüber uns ( mir und anderen ) alten Pionieren der Technik und der Firmen die da mal investiert hatten .

Logisch würde der Kurs mal min. 30 oder 40 % steigen ,wer weiß ob nicht viel mehr , aber das wäre alles nur Momentaufnahme und ich weiß nicht wie Nachhaltig .
 

11.12.24 13:09
2

4497 Postings, 1696 Tage SquideyeShort Interest

12.12.24 20:43

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonwie ich sehe schläft

der Sektor wieder komplett ein , keine News, nichts . Weder hier noch sonstwo in der Branche , ausser bei paar Zockerwerten,die aber auch keine Substanz haben.

Somit auch dieser Wert von 2,82 Dollar auf wieder mal 2,39 mit Tendenz nach unten tägl. falls da nichts an News kommt.

In Deutschland soll scheinbar kein Geld fliessen für Wasserstoff, seltsames Land geworden wo ich mal gelebt habe.

https://www.finanznachrichten.de/...schland-macht-rueckzieher-124.htm

 

13.12.24 10:11

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonHätte damals auch in Wasserstoff ETF

investieren sollen statt in Einzelwerte, wäre wesentlich besser verlaufen als z.b hier, ist für mich heute ein guter Parameter für die Branche, da ist Plug auch wesentlich drin und viele andere ,ich beobachte 2 ETF Wasserstoff genau und da brauch ich fast keine Einzelkurse, sehe dort was läuft .
z.b A2QMAL oder auch A2QMWR
Keine Werbung , sind ETF  / Index mit Plug Power Beteiligung ( sehr hoch sogar )  

13.12.24 10:56

230 Postings, 4115 Tage watihrwolltA2QMAL

Allso Plug habe ich hier nicht gefunden, aber Toyota, Hyundai und Cummins!  

13.12.24 11:25

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonPlug Power ist dort mit 6,39 % Anteil

13.12.24 12:34

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonam besten mal beim ETF selber schauen

ob so oder so, es ist halt ein guter Überblick über die Tendenzen der Branche

 

13.12.24 12:59

2646 Postings, 1239 Tage Walther Sparbier 2Die ETF's verleihen dann an die hedgefonds.

Gegen gebühr versteht sich. Danach fällt der ETF natürlich. Darum werden die so stark beworben. Idiotenspiel.  

13.12.24 14:20

2797 Postings, 921 Tage newsonmuss ja keiner benutzen

ich finde es als Brachenübersicht gut und fertig . Mich interessieren die Einzelkurse nicht mehr so sehr, mich interessiert nur das ganze als Branche , gibt  viele ETF , Fonds und anderes dazu

 

16.12.24 05:22
1

4497 Postings, 1696 Tage SquideyeElectrolyzer Deployments And Increased

Institutional Confidence, Amid Financial Challenges Loom.

Summary

  • I am now neutral on Plug Power, upgrading it to Hold due to progressive electrolyzer agreements and potential future returns despite recent volatility.
  • Key developments include strong electrolyzer installations, strategic investments, and partnerships aimed at boosting hydrogen production and reducing carbon emissions.
  • Norges Bank's increased stake signals confidence, but financial strain and uncertainties around the Inflation Reduction Act pose significant risks.
  • Q3?24 financials show slight improvements with reduced cash burn and increased revenues, but the company remains in a distress zone with a negative Altman Z-score.


Investment Thesis
I am now neutral on Plug Power (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:PLUG) and upgrade it as a Hold. In May and September 2024, I published two sell-rating articles based on increased cash burn and rapid expansion with limited returns. The stock responded to the analysis as expected, fell 16.8% and 6.8% respectively and underperformed the market.

Since then, the company has made progressive electrolyzer agreements boosting its future returns, as revealed in its stock gains from $1.97 to $2.52. However, taking a keen eye on stock reaction after Republican presidential Candidate Donald Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election in 2024, Plug Power has fallen by 25%. Its strong electrolyzer installations have shielded its stock level from surpassing $1.92 and has since started to gain, currently retailing at $2.06.

The volatility experienced by the stock after the US presidential elections expresses hydrogen uncertainties. However, the company's electrolyzer products and applications remain strong, which reveals its potential for growth. Based on these observations, I am rating the company as a Hold. My optimism about Plug Power is in 2025 when most of the cash burn investments made in 2024 are projected to start making returns. I also expect the uncertainty around the Republican Party policy on the Inflation Reduction Act ("IRA") as pledges start taking shape.

Key development: electrolyzer installations continue, a step closer to commercialization
The delivery of ArcelorMittal?s Bremen electrolyzer in Germany is expected to produce 5MW of power, with 2.5MW from Plug Power, which meets the company's projection of continuous electrolyzer installation.

For example, the company is projecting to start the generation of liquid hydrogen in Q4?24 in the hydrogen plant joint venture with Olin Corporation in Louisiana. Plug Power aims to accelerate the adoption of hydrogen by completing these developments in time. The plant is planned to have a 15-ton-per-day hydrogen plant.

The project is called the Hidrogenii Venture. Substantial advancements are continuing with Plug Power's hydrogen production capacity expected to achieve 150,000 metric tonnes annually. Olin Chairman and President Scott Sutton states, ?We are excited to partner with Plug, a leader in sustainable hydrogen, to serve the growing demand for Hydrogen.? The two companies are committed to meeting the projected production threshold by 2028.

Plug power is expected to generate 500 tons per day of liquid green hydrogen by 2025. This strategic investment will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 4.3 million metric tons in North America. The scalable electrolyzers are expected to produce 1,000 tons of liquid green hydrogen by 2028, which reveals a strong potential for future growth.

The 3GW contract between the Allied Green Ammonia ("AGA") project and Plug Power seals its electrolyzer position in the hydrogen adoption. The contract is intended to build one of the largest global green ammonia plants in Australia. Plug?s electrolyzer system is expected to complete its delivery between 2026 and early 2027.

Norway's increased stake is a de-risksignal
The recently announced the acquisition a prominent investment firm (Norges Bank) of Plug?s 78,740 157 common shares at $2.54 per share. The firm added its shares from 850,934,662 shares to 879,636,025 shares. The transaction was executed at $2.26 per share, leading to a modest impact on its portfolio at 0.29%, increasing Norges Bank's percentage to 7.95% of the Plug Power shares.

At a time when Plaug Power is facing financial strain and huge investments, increasing Norges Bank's shareholding is a strategic move. The firm has a portfolio of $669.35B from top-performing technological and financial companies, such as Microsoft Corp, Amazon Inc, and Apple.

Plug Power is still grappling with a depressing financial situation, with low Return on Equity ("ROE") and Return on Assets ("ROA") -44.12% and 31.05%, respectively. Recognizing that Plug Power stock has plummeted by 53% since January 2024, Norges Bank's strategic acquisition is driven by substantial investment by the firm. The company has a strong investment portfolio that capitalizes on its future growth in the green energy sector.

The Plug turnaround strategy to scale down on its cash burn by 70% positions the company for more cash available. Norges Bank?s acquisition of Plug Power IPO is timely and strategic, driven by the company's potential from its substantive investment and the forecasted global hydrogen sector by 2050.

However, uncertain loan process means potential financial strain
The latest Republican presidential candidate assertion on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles creates skepticism about whether the Inflation Reduction Act may be repealed. The Act benefitted Plug Power with $10M grants from the DOE in decarbonization efforts to fund its 250 refueling stations. Plug Energy is still in the process with DOE to release more grants to support the expansion development of its green hydrogen infrastructure up to 6 sites.

The estimated tax credit of around $34 billion in the next decade to support clean energy initiatives faces disbursement uncertainties after Donald Trump alluded that he would rescind unspent money from the IRA, terming it ?The Green New Scam.?.

From the too many interested groups with green hydrogen, for example, the Norges Bank and its core big market cap shareholders, the intention of Republicans to repeal the IRA in the House and Senate may not materialise. As such, in case the House and the Senate successfully repeal the IRA, Plug Power is likely to experience financial strain in developing the necessary infrastructure for its green hydrogen. The company secured 10M from IRA to fund its refueling station installations and needs more to fund its pipeline and storage facilities that together improve the availability and accessibility of green hydrogen. I do not recommend either buying or selling Plug Power stock at negative Altman Z-Score as it depicts a high risk stock at the moment.

My neutral thought
Building on my previous bearish rating, informed by increased cash burn in Q2?24, substantial investments have been achieved, and production has increased to over 25 tonnes of green hydrogen per day in its existing facilities. The company is currently in a turnaround stage, as seen in scaling down Capital expenditure by 30% in the second quarter of 2024. This has prompted a strategic investor, Norges Bank, to increase its shares, looking forward to the company's investment returns.

However, I remain skeptical, looking at the stock liquidity reaction following Donald Trump?s stand on IRA and the overall clean energy sector. As such, taking a different angle using Altman Z-Score on Plug Power, as of November 11, 2024, the company is still in a distress zone at -1.51. This implies that the company could go bankrupt in the next two years if its revenues do not increase as intended. Currently, following the uncertainties in the hydrogen sector post-US-election, and a negative Altman Z-score, it is uncertain whether the company turnaround and substantial investment will have a positive impact on its revenues in the short-term, a reason for my Hold rating.

Valuation
Q3?24 financial highlights: signs of positive turnaround

A slight improvement was reported in Q3?24 following a 70% reduction in cash burn. Net loss reduced slightly by 19.48% from $262.3M in Q2?24 to $211.2 in Q3?24. This is a gain for its shareholders, with Earnings per share loss in the quarter reducing from $0.36 in Q2?24 to $0.25 in Q3?24. Following significant investments in 2024, the net loss relates to strategic investments and new product deployments. The net loss recorded is based on a 37% decreased gross margin Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ). As such, the company has multiple streams of revenue from its investments that have started to record improvements. The service segment has improved by 776%, equipment business is up by 42%, fuel sales have improved by 8%, and Power Purchase Agreements are up by 13%. These increases reported a revenue increase of 21.13%, an increase of $173.7 M in Q3?24 to $143.4M in Q2?24. The company is leveraging its electrolyzer deployments that have remained resilient amid hydrogen uncertainties. Operating cash flow improved by 31% QoQ, indicating the company?s working capital efficiency and improving margins. Following the turnaround strategies, positive results and imminent improvements will be recorded in Q4 2024, with a favorable political landscape, such as the continuous implementation of the IRA. However, the company projects to use fixed manufacturing costs and existing inventory to continue is revenue growth projection.

As iterated in my last articles on Plug, it is difficult to rate a company at this very early stage of refining its product offering and deep in negative profit margin and cash flow - only when there is meaningful profit being made and reduced cash flow, the share price can be less volatile.

Investment Risks

  • Policy change: Plug faces financial strain in completing its hydrogen refueling station installations if the DOE slows down its loan process on climate programs following Trump?s deriding of the Biden-Harris climate program Inflation Reduction Act, citing it as ?The Green New Scam.?
  • Change of public perception- After Donald Trump's inaccurate assertion that Hydrogen cars could blow, the statement has the potential to reduce the demand from 18,300 passenger hydrogen vehicles already existing on US roads.
  • Financial strain - Plus Power may face financial strain in completing its infrastructure development as IRA grants may be repealed by possible Oil and Gas pro policies in the next four years.

    Quelle @ https://seekingalpha.com/article/...ce-amid-financial-challenges-loom
 

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