die WCH immer noch gegen 80? sehen, die ewigen Durchhalteparolen, das ewig gleiche dumme Gelabber! WCH ist sehr stark von der Krise betroffen und sie wird dich weiter verschärfen! Ich habe es seit Monaten heraufbeschworen und wurde immer wieder ausgelacht, negativ bewertet und beschimpft. Leider bin ich einer der wenigen, der WCH genau richtig eingeschätzt hat.
Anbei 2 Artikel, die wieder bestätigen, dass keine Trendumkehr stattfinden wird und es weiter abwärts geht mit WCH. Nächstes Ziel 40?!!! Tja, hätte WCH-Fred mal auf mich gehört, hätte er keine 30% seines Kapitals verbrannt, wobei ich denke, dass er nicht investiert war sondern nur pushen wollte. Ich bin auf Q4 und Q3 gespannt. Q3 sollte noch ganz gut gelaufen sein. Was Q4 angeht sehe ich eher schwarz aber wie! Aufgrund der Zahlungsziele verschieben dich die Einzahlungen ja immer ein wenig und der Abschwung am Markt findet gerade seit 2 Monaten statt. Dtl. erbaut nur noch 350MW und Italien fast auch nichts mehr.
Market observers believe China's anti-dumping investigation against US- and South Korea-based polysilicon firms is likely to increase the price of domestic polysilicon supply. According to Gong Shan Zhu, executive director, chairman, and CEO of China-based polysilicon provider GCL-Poly, even if the investigation finds evidence of dumping, GCL-Poly will not increase polysilicon quotes.
Zhu emphasized that if Europe and the US abolish trade barriers, China's anti-dumping investigation will be terminated as well.
Europe has been conducting an anti-dumping investigation against China-based solar firms, and may consider starting an anti-subsidy investigation as well. China-based solar firms have demanded a retaliatory investigation against Europe-based polysilicon firms. China is the world's largest market for polysilicon and if the investigation finds evidence of dumping and subsidies, the price of polysilicon and solar wafers in China will likely increase. However, domestic polysilicon firms in China are likely to be the only benefactors.
Market observers noted that other domestic polysilicon firms will not be able to revive production if GCL-Poly holds prices at the current range. This strategy can also decrease the competitiveness of international polysilicon firms.
The current spot price of polysilicon is around US$20/kg and for many polysilicon firms, this price leaves no room for profits. However, GCL-Poly reported production costs for polysilicon at US$18.2/kg in 2012, and according to Zhu, the cost will continue to decrease. The low production cost is the reason that GCL-Poly has been able to continue operating within the current spot price.
espite the fact that most leading polysilicon producers have been operating at a loss, polysilicon capacity is expected to grow 22% in 2012 and a further 18% in 2013, according to the NPD Solarbuzz. Average industry-wide polysilicon prices for solar applications are forecast to drop 52% in 2012, while plant utilization is expected to decline from 77% in 2011 to 63%.
"The last thing the polysilicon industry needs right now is more capacity. But some of the new plants that were started two to three years ago are proving hard to abandon," stated Charles Annis, vice president at NPD Solarbuzz. "In addition, some producers are adding capacity in an attempt to lower their costs through economies of scale. Some are improving capacity productivity, while others are upgrading manufacturing technology, such as adopting hydrochlorination, to reduce power consumption and increase scale."
Total polysilicon capacity will exceed 385,000 tons in 2012, of which 70% is held by a small number of tier-one producers. In fact, these tier-one providers alone are forecast to satisfy all polysilicon demand under the NPD Solarbuzz most-likely end-market scenario for the next few years.
Unless end-market demand provides a strong upside surprise to expected polysilicon requirements, many of the 57 tier-two and three producers are likely to exit the industry within the next 18 months. Indeed, even a few of the less-experienced tier-one makers may not survive over the next couple of years.
Average polysilicon prices are forecast to start to stabilize in 2013 at around US$21/kg, as the remaining players rationalize utilization rates in line with end-market requirements while ensuring that selling prices remain above their cash costs.
"If China's Ministry of Commerce decides to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on polysilicon imports, prices are likely to increase," added Annis. "However, this will only help a limited number of local Chinese polysilicon producers. It will hurt not only foreign producers but many Chinese wafer, cell and module makers. Also, it will not help to resolve the polysilicon oversupply issue and could restrict end-market growth due to higher prices."
In addition to import duties, any increase in polysilicon prices will likely be limited by first-tier supply sufficiency and end-market demand for the next couple of years. However, tier-one polysilicon producers continue to plan for longer term solar involvement, where low cost structures, economies of scale, and continuously improving productivity are expected to yield benefits as shipment volumes grow.
So long, auf weiter sinkende Preise und Margen bei WVH
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