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http://www.flix.de/brancheneintrag-135-113461.html
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die ganze 50% Bonus bekommst du sicher, wenn du dein Geld da anlegst ( gut, du musst ein wenig geduld haben .... 23 Jahre um es genau zu sagen)
http://www.sparkasse-re.de/cms/de/_pk/...ckssparen/Glueckssparen.html
Optionen
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Im Dezember stand die New-Century-Aktie noch bei 30 Dollar. Inzwischen haben fast alle Banken ihre Finanzierungsvereinbarungen mit NEW gekündigt.
All of New Century's lenders have or plan to halt financing
By Steve Goldstein
Last Update: 6:50 AM ET Mar 12, 2007
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- New Century Financial (NEW) , in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, said as of March 9, all of the company's lenders under its short-term repurchase agreements and aggregation credit facilities had discontinued their financing with the company or had notified New Century of their intent to do so, and some have also purported to terminate the company's servicing rights. New Century has amended an agreement allowing it to pledge $265 million in additional assets for new financing. End of Story
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New Century Financial Corp., the second-biggest U.S. home lender to people with bad credit histories, said it can't meet demands by its creditors for accelerated payments. The Irvine, California, company's shares, already down 90 percent in 2007, lost half their remaining value.
`Flying Into Treasuries'
``The problems of New Century seem to be getting worse,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``People are flying into Treasuries and selling their riskier holdings. People are moving away from the carry trade.''
Treasuries, considered among the safest assets in the world, rose after two days of losses. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, fell more than 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 4.54 percent.
A global stock market rout Feb. 27 prompted investors to shed riskier assets and buy back the yen to cover their loans. The Japanese currency fell 1.3 percent last week as investors resumed the carry trade.
The implied volatility of the one-month dollar-yen contract surged 35 basis points to 8.6 percent as traders expected more uncertainty in currencies. The one-year average is 8.03 percent.
The euro rose against the dollar as European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher signaled interest rates will increase further. The ECB on March 8 raised borrowing costs for the seventh time since late 2005 to 3.75 percent.
``I warn everyone who says we have inflation under control,'' Liebscher said in an interview in Vienna on March 9 that was published today. ``We absolutely see risks on the horizon'' and can't ``lean back and consider the job done.''
Group of 10
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will chair today's meeting of the Group of 10 countries in Basel, Switzerland, and may say Europe's inflation rate is still too high after last week's rate increase.
Germany's economy, the biggest in Europe, will grow at the fastest pace since 2000, the Kiel-based IfW economic institute said today, raising its previous forecast by a third. The economy will expand 2.8 percent in 2007, the IfW said in an e-mail statement, compared with a December estimate of 2.1 percent.
``I would expect the euro to outperform against the dollar in the medium to longer term,'' said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ``The priority of the ECB is to control inflation.''
The dollar's losses against the yen may be tempered before government reports tomorrow expected to show rising retail sales, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will cut its 5.25 percent benchmark rate by midyear.
Retail Sales Outlook
The Commerce Department will probably report U.S. retail sales rose 0.3 percent in February after holding steady the previous month, according to the median estimate of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A Labor Department report March 16 may show consumer prices rose 0.3 percent last month after a 0.2 percent gain in January, a separate Bloomberg survey of 72 economists shows.
``We need a solid retail sales number around the 0.3 percent level to signal that U.S. consumption'' is still strong ``and that the slowing housing markets are not having a significant impact on spending patterns,'' said Mike Moran, senior currency strategist in New York at Standard Chartered Bank.
He forecasts the dollar to rise to 118 against the yen and $1.36 versus the euro at the end of the first quarter.
To contact the reporters on this story: Bo Nielsen in New York at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net ; Min Zeng in New York at mzeng2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 12, 2007 11:48 EDT
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Foreclosures May Hit 1.5 Million in U.S. Housing Bust (Update1)
By Bob Ivry
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Hold on to your assets. The deepest housing decline in 16 years is about to get worse.
As many as 1.5 million more Americans may lose their homes, another 100,000 people in housing-related industries could be fired, and an estimated 100 additional subprime mortgage companies that lend money to people with bad or limited credit may go under, according to realtors, economists, analysts and a Federal Reserve governor. Financial stocks also could extend their declines over mortgage default worries.
The spring buying season, when more than half of all U.S. home sales are made, has been so disappointing that the National Association of Home Builders in Washington now expects purchases to fall for the sixth consecutive quarter after it predicted a gain just last month.
``The correction will last another year,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
A five-year housing boom that ended in 2006 expanded home- ownership to a record number of U.S. households. Now it has given way to mounting defaults, failing subprime mortgage companies and an increasing number of unsold homes.
Last Housing Slump
If this slump follows the same pattern as the last one, in 1991, it will persist for at least another year and may fuel a recession. New-home sales declined 45 percent from July 1989 to January 1991 and about 1 percent of all U.S. jobs, or 1.1 million, were lost in that recession, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the California Association of Realtors.
This time around, new-home sales have declined 28 percent since September 2005, hitting a low in January, the last month for which data is available. And though the national jobless rate is near a five-year low this month, mortgage-related jobs fell by almost 2,000 in January alone. At least two dozen of the more than 8,000 mortgage lenders have been forced to close or sell operations since the start of 2006.
Subprime lenders Ameriquest Mortgage Co. in Irvine, California; Ownit Mortgage Solutions LLC and WMC Mortgage Corp., a subsidiary of General Electric Co., in Woodland Hills, California; Mortgage Lenders Network USA Inc. in Middletown, Connecticut and Fremont General Corp. together have fired more than 5,600 workers in the past year.
New Century
New Century Financial Corp., the second-largest subprime lender, said today it ran out of cash to pay back creditors who are demanding their money now. The Irvine, California-based company has lost 90 percent of its market value this year and stopped making new subprime loans, prompting speculation it will seek bankruptcy protection. New Century already has cut 300 jobs and its 7,000 remaining employees are waiting to see if the company will survive.
Fremont General, the Brea, California-based lender that is trying to sell its residential-mortgage unit, was ordered to stop making subprime loans by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. last week. Fremont was marketing and extending loans ``in a way that substantially increased the likelihood of borrower default or other loss to the bank,'' the FDIC said last week.
Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association, predicted in January that more than 100 home lenders may fail this year.
The subprime crisis ``has taken the fuel out of the real estate market,'' said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast in Los Angeles. ``The market needs new money in order to appreciate, and all of that money is gone for a very long time. The regulators are not going to allow it to happen again.''
Higher Rates
Subprime mortgages are given to people who wouldn't qualify for standard home loans and typically have rates at least 2 or 3 percentage points above safer prime loans. The portion of subprime loans that financed new mortgages rose to 20 percent last year from 5 percent in 2001, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Subprime loans contributed to a home-ownership rate that reached a record 69.3 percent of U.S. households in the second quarter of 2004, up 5.4 percentage points from the same period in 1991, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
``Probably the gain in home ownership over the last four, five years, is almost entirely due to looser lending standards,'' said James Fielding, a homebuilding credit analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York.
Refinancing Option
As home prices steadily gained from 2001 to 2006, homeowners who fell behind on mortgage payments could sell their homes and pay off their loans or get better refinancing terms based on the higher value of their property. Now that home values are declining, many borrowers won't be able to refinance because they would have to come up with the difference between their new mortgage and what their home is now worth.
Defaults may dump more than 500,000 homes on a housing market already saturated with leftover inventory built during boom times, New York-based bond research firm CreditSights Inc. said in a March 1 report.
The portion of subprime loans more than 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure rose to 10 percent as of Dec. 31, from 5.4 percent in May 2005, the highest in seven years, according data compiled by Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. of Arlington, Virginia.
Many of the delinquencies came from loans where borrowers didn't have to provide tax returns or other evidence of income, or where they financed 100 percent or more of the home's value, CreditSights analyst David Hendler wrote in a March 5 report. Other defaults came on adjustable-rate mortgages with artificially low introductory ``teaser'' rates, sometimes with ``option'' payment plans that allowed borrowers to defer interest.
`Beginning of the Wave'
Banks ought to be concerned about such loans and are likely to see more missed payments and foreclosures as consumers with weak credit histories begin to face higher monthly mortgage payments, Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies said last week.
``What we're seeing in this narrow segment is the beginning of the wave,'' Bies said. ``This is not the end, this is the beginning.''
About 1.5 million U.S. homeowners out of a total of 80 million will lose their homes through foreclosure, University of California-Berkeley economist Ken Rosen said last week.
``The subprime borrowers paid too much for their homes, and all of a sudden, they'll see their house value drop by 10 to 15 percent,'' Rosen said.
Borrowers at Risk
The Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina, said in a December study that as many as 2.2 million borrowers are at risk of losing their homes, at a potential cost of $164 billion, from subprime mortgages originated from 1998 through 2006.
The number of U.S. foreclosures rose 42 percent to 1.2 million last year from 2005, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, while delinquencies in the last three months of 2006 rose to the highest level in four years, the Federal Reserve said.
Housing and related industries, which account for about 23 percent of the U.S. economy -- including makers of everything from copper pipes to kitchen cabinets -- fired about 100,000 workers last year. The total will be higher this year, according to Amal Bendimerad of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
By the end of this year, job cuts at companies including Benton Harbor, Michigan-based Whirlpool Corp., Masco Corp. of Taylor, Michigan, and St. Louis-based Emerson Electric Co. may exceed the fallout from the 1991 housing slump, said Paul Puryear, managing director at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Raymond James & Associates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn't give data for housing-related job losses.
`Fallout'
``The fallout in the early 1990s was much worse than what we've seen so far, but this downturn is not over,'' Puryear said. ``The full impact hasn't hit yet.''
U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, said he may propose legislation to reign in ``inappropriate'' lending, and a House subcommittee is scheduled to consider subprime lending and foreclosures March 27.
``The standards got loosened so much, and there's always the pressure to make money that there was pressure to maybe make the questionable loans that shouldn't have been made,'' said Ohio Representative Paul Gillmor, the subcommittee's top Republican, in a March 9 interview. ``The major problem has been the overall deterioration in credit standards by lenders that's exacerbated by those who are unscrupulous.''
The Federal Bureau of Investigation says mortgage fraud is ``pervasive and growing'' and the incidence of such fraud has almost doubled in the past three years.
`Unscrupulous Individuals'
``There has been an increase in unscrupulous individuals in the market,'' said Arthur Prieston, chairman of the Prieston Group, a San Francisco-based company that investigates mortgage fraud. ``There's an unfair assumption of a connection between subprime failure and fraud. But there is a connection between early default and fraud.''
Mortgage fraud is committed when a borrower misrepresents himself or his finances to a lender. Some of that fraud involved speculators. They drove up prices during the boom by ordering new homes with the intent of selling them immediately after taking possession.
That ``flipping'' inflated demand and put the speculators in competition with the homebuilders, propelling the median U.S. home price to $276,000 last June from $177,000 in February 2001.
``A lot of the housing bubble was speculation,'' said Mike Inselmann of the Houston-based research firm Metrostudy.
Cancellations
When home prices got so high that speculators could no longer turn a profit, they canceled their contracts and walked away from their down payments.
Cancellation rates for new homes have surged to almost 40 percent of home contracts, Margaret Whelan, a New York-based analyst at UBS AG, said in a report on March 2.
That forced the top five U.S. homebuilders -- D.R. Horton Inc., Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp., Centex Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc. -- to write off a combined $1.47 billion on abandoned land in the fourth quarter of 2006.
On top of that, new home sales plunged 17 percent last year from 2005, the biggest decline since 1990, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Home Builders. Existing home sales fell 8.4 percent in 2006 from a record in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Donald Tomnitz, D.R. Horton's chief executive officer, said last week that his Fort Worth, Texas-based company would miss its projections for this year and that ``2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year.''
Financial Stocks
Concern that the housing slump and defaults in the subprime mortgage industry will affect earnings at the largest banks and lenders has hurt financial stocks. They are the worst performers in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since the benchmark reached a six- year high on Feb. 20. The group lost 5.6 percent, outpacing the broader index's 3.9 percent drop.
Investment banks including Merrill Lynch & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley have spent more than $4 billion over the past year to buy home-loan companies as add-ons to their mortgage-bond trading businesses. They needed loans to repackage into securities to sell to investors. Demand for higher yields led them into the subprime market. As that business flourished, financial firms either invested in subprime lenders of bought them.
The number of U.S. financial institutions in the mortgage business jumped 16 percent to 8,848 in the past four years, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.
`Too Early to Tell'
``It's a little too early to tell how it shakes out for investment banks,'' said Andrew Davidson, president of New York- based Andrew Davidson & Co., which advises fixed-income investors on mortgage bonds. ``If it turns out that they have large losses, the investment banks tend not to be very forgiving and usually terminate businesses that haven't worked for them.''
Dale Westhoff, a senior managing director at New York-based Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage bonds, said last week that failing subprime lenders ``are going to be absorbed very quickly.''
``Hedge funds and private equity are going to play a very important role in buying distressed assets,'' Westhoff said.
In contrast to the 1991 housing skid, worker productivity is increasing, consumer confidence is expanding, interest rates remain within 1 percentage point of the 40-year low and the jobless rate fell to a five-year low last month. Last month, 7.4 million new and existing homes were sold, more than twice the 1991 bottom.
Optimists
And real estate people tend to be the world's most optimistic, said Bryce Bowman, director of development for Randolph Equities LLC in Chicago.
``There's a lot of capital chasing real estate and that has not ceased with this bust,'' Bowman said. ``Developers have stopped building crazy speculative housing developments and are burning off their inventory, so we're excited about the end of '07, and we want to be ready to go when business picks up in '08.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: March 12, 2007 10:46 EDT
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Last Week's Lows May Be Tested
By Mark Manning
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/12/2007 2:58 PM EDT
Over the weekend, a very sharp trader pointed out to me that ego often gets the best of many strategists, and they try to make big calls that are designed more to garner attention than to offer real guidance to investors. When somebody makes a major call on the market, such as saying it's time to go 100% short or 100% long based on their indicators or feelings, it could have a devastating effect on investors' portfolios. Like the weather, the market can completely change character in a matter of days or even hours. I made this point in my column Friday -- not to ruffle any feathers, but to alert investors about the hazards of such predictions. I see my job as giving readers clear and straightforward information so that they can make their own decisions based on a logical point of view. If you learn anything from me, I hope it's that rules are necessary to guide your portfolio. That's the only way that you can keep emotion and ego out of the picture. You must control risk in order to be consistently profitable in managing your portfolio. This rule is especially important in volatile markets like we have seen over the past couple of weeks. With that in mind, let's take a look at the charts.
Nasdaq Composite
The Nasdaq has continued to meet resistance at the 2400 level. Over the past several months, this level acted as previous support, and prior support often becomes resistance. The reaction over the past week is a classic low-volume bounce after a significant trend break. The wedging action of higher prices and successively lower volume points to a least a test of last week's low. Without a significant move up on much higher volume, the Nasdaq probably won't get much higher than 2425 before doing some more downside testing.![](http://images.thestreet.com/rmoney/technicalanalysis/38635.gif)
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also had been wedging higher on lower volume. The 12,400 level looks like a tough hurdle in the short term. The Dow's leadership position seems to be fading quickly, and if the volume patterns continue to decline, the index will probably see a test to least 12,000.![](http://images.thestreet.com/rmoney/technicalanalysis/38636.gif)
S&P Small-Cap 600
The S&P Small-Cap 600 index has fallen back into the base out of which it broke in late January. It has now drifted back up to its prior support level and 50-day moving average. The recent rise on lower-than-normal volume will probably lead to a test of at least 390. A break below that could lead to a quick drop to 380.![](http://images.thestreet.com/rmoney/technicalanalysis/38638.gif)
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets have been on quite a run over the past few years. The earnings picture and fundamentals still look positive, but these markets could be ready for a significant correction after the huge move they've had. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) has become very volatile since breaking the 50-day moving average at about $113. It is now having problems breaking up through that prior support. If it doesn't follow through to the upside in the next few days on increasing volume, we'll probably see a least a test of last week's lows.![](http://images.thestreet.com/rmoney/technicalanalysis/38637.gif)
At time of publication, Manning had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
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Wenn unklar ist, wohin die Reise geht, begibt man sich besser in Wartestellung. Keiner zwingt uns/mich, IMMER in irgendwas investiert zu sein. Das ist ja gerade der Vorteil, den wir vor großen Fonds haben. Sind die nicht investiert und es steigt, sind die weg vom Fenster, weil sie den Index dann nicht mehr schlagen und die Kunden fortlaufen. Fallen die großen Fonds mit dem Index, so gilt das als "Künstlerpech". Auf Letzteres kann ich getrost verzichten. Das Abwärts-Risiko scheint mir zurzeit höher als die Aufwärts-Chance - zum einen wegen der Charttechnik (# 509 - low volume "dead cat bounce"), zum anderen, weil im Subprime-Keller nun erste Leichen (New Century) liegen.
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Wenn ich mir die Charts ansehe wird es bald spannend: Entweder drehen wir nach Süden oder starten wieder nach oben durch. Wie oben bereits beschrieben ist meine Meinung aber dieselbe wie von AL.
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Geplatzte Immobilienträume
Krise am US-Hypothekenmarkt
Das Geschäft mit riskanten Hypothekenkrediten an hunderttausende Amerikaner mit geringer Kreditwürdigkeit ist in die Krise geraten. Diese Kredite wurden während des fünfjährigen Immobilien-Booms häufig ohne Anzahlung und mit zu Anfang extrem niedrigen aber variablen Zinsen angeboten.
Damit wurden einkommensschwache Kreditnehmer zum Häuserkauf verleitet. Solange die Einfamilienhäuser und Eigentumswohnungen jährlich zweistellige prozentuale Preiserhöhungen verzeichneten, waren alle Beteiligten hochzufrieden.
Seit mehr als einem Jahr fallen jedoch die US-Immobilienpreise. Gleichzeitig erhöhten sich bei den vor einigen Jahre zu Sonderkonditionen abgeschlossenen Hypothekenkrediten plötzlich die Zinsen und damit die monatlichen Zahlungen der Hausbesitzer massiv. Viele konnten die Tilgungen nicht mehr leisten und gerieten in Verzug oder stoppten die Zahlungen ganz.
Mehr als zwei Dutzend der auf Risikokredite spezialisierten US-Hypothekenfirmen sind inzwischen insolvent oder sind auf der Suche nach Käufern. Die Aktien vieler einschlägiger Firmen wie der New Century Financial haben in kurzer Zeit 80 bis 90 Prozent an Wert verloren. Ihre eigenen Kreditgeber haben den Geldhahn ganz oder teilweise zugedreht.
In diese Probleme sind auch andere Geldgeber wie Investmentbanken, Versicherungen, Pensionskassen, Banken und Hedge-Fonds verwickelt, die die hochriskanten Hypothekengeschäfte finanziert hatten. Die Wall-Street-Firmen hatten die Hypothekenkredite dann mit hohem Gewinn gebündelt, umverpackt und sie in Form von neuen Wertpapieren an institutionelle und auf höhere Renditen spekulierende kleine Anleger verkauft. Jetzt müssen die Beteiligten jedoch die Zeche dafür zahlen, dass sie nach höheren Renditen strebten ohne auf das Kreditrisiko zu achten. Die riskanten US-Hypothekenkredite haben sich nämlich als Zeitbombe heraus gestellt.
In den USA - einem Land mit 300 Mio. Einwohnern - wohnen rund 70 Prozent aller Bürger in den eigenen vier Wänden. Die US-Investmentbank Goldman Sachs schätzt in einer neuen Studie, dass die so genannten "Subprime"-Kredite an riskante Kreditnehmer jährlich zum zusätzlichen Verkauf von 200.000 Häusern geführt hätten. Das seien zehn bis 15 Prozent der gesamten Nachfrage nach neuen Häusern gewesen. "Ohne diese zusätzliche Ankurbelung müssen Hausverkäufe und -preise weiter fallen", betont Goldman Sachs.
Im Januar standen in den USA rund 4,1 Mio. Häuser zum Verkauf, davon rund 536. 000 neu gebaute. Die jetzige Krise könnte mehr als eine halbe Million zusätzlicher Häuser auf den Markt bringen, da zahllose finanziell gestresste Hausbesitzer das Handtuch werfen. Sie überlassen den Geldgebern die Immobilien, die inzwischen oft weniger wert sind als ihre Hypothekenschulden. Praktisch alle Baufirmen leiden unter drastisch gefallenen Aufträgen, Umsätzen und Gewinnen. Die Bau-und Immobilienbranche war in den vergangenen Jahren ein Hauptträger des enormen US-Konjunkturaufschwungs und ist jetzt der größte Hemmschuh.
Der auf riskante Kreditnehmer konzentrierte Hypothekenmarkt hatte 2006 ein Gesamtvolumen von 600 Mrd. US-Dollar (458 Mrd. Euro). Das waren fast zehn Prozent des gesamten amerikanischen Hypothekenmarktes von rund 6,5 Billionen US-Dollar. Auch die amerikanische Notenbank ist besorgt. Die Währungshüter beobachten ob die bisher auf dieses Teilsegment beschränkten Probleme den gesamten Hypothekenmarkt anstecken könnten. Sie verlangen von den Marktteilnehmern neue Kreditvergaberegeln und klarere Offenlegungsvorschriften.
Von Peter Bauer, dpa
Optionen
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Geplatzte Immobilienträume
Krise am US-Hypothekenmarkt
Das Geschäft mit riskanten Hypothekenkrediten an hunderttausende Amerikaner mit geringer Kreditwürdigkeit ist in die Krise geraten. Diese Kredite wurden während des fünfjährigen Immobilien-Booms häufig ohne Anzahlung und mit zu Anfang extrem niedrigen aber variablen Zinsen angeboten.
Damit wurden einkommensschwache Kreditnehmer zum Häuserkauf verleitet. Solange die Einfamilienhäuser und Eigentumswohnungen jährlich zweistellige prozentuale Preiserhöhungen verzeichneten, waren alle Beteiligten hochzufrieden.
Seit mehr als einem Jahr fallen jedoch die US-Immobilienpreise. Gleichzeitig erhöhten sich bei den vor einigen Jahre zu Sonderkonditionen abgeschlossenen Hypothekenkrediten plötzlich die Zinsen und damit die monatlichen Zahlungen der Hausbesitzer massiv. Viele konnten die Tilgungen nicht mehr leisten und gerieten in Verzug oder stoppten die Zahlungen ganz.
Mehr als zwei Dutzend der auf Risikokredite spezialisierten US-Hypothekenfirmen sind inzwischen insolvent oder sind auf der Suche nach Käufern. Die Aktien vieler einschlägiger Firmen wie der New Century Financial haben in kurzer Zeit 80 bis 90 Prozent an Wert verloren. Ihre eigenen Kreditgeber haben den Geldhahn ganz oder teilweise zugedreht.
In diese Probleme sind auch andere Geldgeber wie Investmentbanken, Versicherungen, Pensionskassen, Banken und Hedge-Fonds verwickelt, die die hochriskanten Hypothekengeschäfte finanziert hatten. Die Wall-Street-Firmen hatten die Hypothekenkredite dann mit hohem Gewinn gebündelt, umverpackt und sie in Form von neuen Wertpapieren an institutionelle und auf höhere Renditen spekulierende kleine Anleger verkauft. Jetzt müssen die Beteiligten jedoch die Zeche dafür zahlen, dass sie nach höheren Renditen strebten ohne auf das Kreditrisiko zu achten. Die riskanten US-Hypothekenkredite haben sich nämlich als Zeitbombe heraus gestellt.
In den USA - einem Land mit 300 Mio. Einwohnern - wohnen rund 70 Prozent aller Bürger in den eigenen vier Wänden. Die US-Investmentbank Goldman Sachs schätzt in einer neuen Studie, dass die so genannten "Subprime"-Kredite an riskante Kreditnehmer jährlich zum zusätzlichen Verkauf von 200.000 Häusern geführt hätten. Das seien zehn bis 15 Prozent der gesamten Nachfrage nach neuen Häusern gewesen. "Ohne diese zusätzliche Ankurbelung müssen Hausverkäufe und -preise weiter fallen", betont Goldman Sachs.
Im Januar standen in den USA rund 4,1 Mio. Häuser zum Verkauf, davon rund 536. 000 neu gebaute. Die jetzige Krise könnte mehr als eine halbe Million zusätzlicher Häuser auf den Markt bringen, da zahllose finanziell gestresste Hausbesitzer das Handtuch werfen. Sie überlassen den Geldgebern die Immobilien, die inzwischen oft weniger wert sind als ihre Hypothekenschulden. Praktisch alle Baufirmen leiden unter drastisch gefallenen Aufträgen, Umsätzen und Gewinnen. Die Bau-und Immobilienbranche war in den vergangenen Jahren ein Hauptträger des enormen US-Konjunkturaufschwungs und ist jetzt der größte Hemmschuh.
Der auf riskante Kreditnehmer konzentrierte Hypothekenmarkt hatte 2006 ein Gesamtvolumen von 600 Mrd. US-Dollar (458 Mrd. Euro). Das waren fast zehn Prozent des gesamten amerikanischen Hypothekenmarktes von rund 6,5 Billionen US-Dollar. Auch die amerikanische Notenbank ist besorgt. Die Währungshüter beobachten ob die bisher auf dieses Teilsegment beschränkten Probleme den gesamten Hypothekenmarkt anstecken könnten. Sie verlangen von den Marktteilnehmern neue Kreditvergaberegeln und klarere Offenlegungsvorschriften.
Von Peter Bauer, dpa
Optionen
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hier der Beleg: http://www.ariva.de/board/280419/Waerna?pnr=3035802#jump3035802
... OBWOHL die Altaktien nach Beendigung der Chapter-11-Episode (die Firma macht dann "entschuldet" weiter, die Dummen sind die Altaktionäre) fast immer wertlos werden. Das hat offenbar juristische Gründe.
Dies zeigt: An Aktien wie Delphi und Delta, die trotz Pleite zeitweise stark gestiegen sind, können Leute, die den Short-Squeeze der Bären spielen, immer noch eine Menge Geld verdienen können. Anders kann ich mir den Upgrade in # 517 nicht erklären.
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