2500.-USD noch in 2014
http://resourceinvestingnews.com/...-zinc-hitting-us1-25-in-2014.html
Mineweb reported that Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr sees zinc prices rising to US$1.25 this year, then hitting $1.60 to $1.70 next year. She believes Teck Resources Ltd. (TSX:TCK.B,NYSE:TCK), Lundin Mining Corp. (TSX:LUN) and Hudbay Minerals Inc. (TSX:HBM) will benefit.
As quoted in the market news:
In her analysis, Mohr observed that a cyclical recovery is zinc and nickel is underway.
?Global supply and demand conditions for ?refined? zinc are in ?deficit? in 2014 (that is, world consumption of slab zinc exceeds production), pulling down LME & Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks by 20.8% since late 2013,? she noted. ?Chinese imports of ?refined? zinc have jumped by 39.3% through July, given solid underlying demand growth?up about 7% in 2014, boosted by strong auto production (+9.4% YTD), the rising content of galvanized steel in cars to prevent rust (Chinese consumers are demanding higher-quality motor vehicles) and low operating rates at Chinese smelters (74%) due to weak treatment charges & poor profitability.?
Meanwhile, Mohr advises that while zinc concentrate supplies remain ample, ?concentrates will likely also move into deficit by 2016, given significant mine depletion?for example, at Australia?s 480,000t Century mine in mid-2015, the world?s third-biggest zinc mine, and at Lisheen (132,000t) in 2016, after closures in 2013 at Brunswick (190,000t) and Perseverance (125,000t) in Canada.?
Scotiabank commodities specialist Patricia Mohr says a cyclical recovery in zinc and nickel is underway, leading to dramatically higher prices in 2015. (See below for information about specific zinc and nickel stocks).
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2014/08/...ically-higher-2015
In the latest Scotiabank Commodity Price Index report, Mohr says global supply and demand conditions for ?refined zinc? are in ?deficit? in 2014, meaning that world consumption of slap zinc exceeds production.
This has helped to reduce London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks by 21% since 2013.
Mohr said Chinese imports of ?refined? zinc have jumped by 39.3% through July.
Solid underlying demand growth ? up about 7% in 2014 -- is being driven by strong auto production, the rising content of galvanized steel in cars to prevent rust and low operating rates at Chinese smelters due to weak treatment charges and poor profitability.
While zinc ?concentrate? supplies remain ample, Mohr said ?concentrates? will likely also move into ?deficit? by 2016 due to significant mine depletion at operations that include:
Australia?s 480,000-tonne Century mine in mid-2015, the world?s third largest zinc mine.
The 132,000-tonne Lisheen mine in Ireland in 2016.
The deficit forecast also takes into account closures at the Brunswick and Perseverance mines in Canada.
Mohr says overall mine output should ramp up. However, her Scotiabank report says recent prices have not been high enough to ?incent? sufficient new mine development to meet world demand.
Hence market conditions will become genuinely tight in 2016, she said.
But published reports say the picture is about to get even more rosy. This is because fertilizer is expected to emerge as another source of demand for zinc.
A Wall St Daily says studies completed in Brazil, China, India and Turkey showed that adding zinc as a micronutrient in fertilizer raised crop yields by 8% to 12% and increased zinc content in the harvested grains by 20% to 40%.
As plants need zinc to synthesize proteins and generate energy, IHS is predicting that the biggest demand growth sector for zinc chemicals through 2018 will be in fertilizer (using zinc sulfate mostly).
IHS is a leading global source of critical information and insight.
Gruß
Ebbe
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