LUKOIL?s 4Q 09 US GAAP net income, as implied by ConocoPhillips? income from its LUKOIL investment, is close to our estimate of USD 2.2bn.
LKOH RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 95.60 | Current Price: USD 53.60 | Upside/Downside: 78%
Based on ConocoPhillips? 4Q 09 results, we estimate LUKOIL?s 4Q 09 US GAAP net income at USD 2.2bn, up 8% q-o-q and equal to our estimates. ConocoPhillips (COP) reported net income from the LUKOIL investment at USD 388mn. We have added back a USD 54mn negative adjustment COP made for a discrepancy between LUKOIL?s actual 3Q 09 net income and COP?s earlier estimate. We have also added taxes paid by COP on income from the LUKOIL investment. Assuming a 20% ownership share, this implies LUKOIL 4Q 09 net income of USD 2.2bn. It also indicates that LUKOIL?s 2009 net income was USD 7.5bn, down 18% y-o-y. This is a moderate decline compared with the average Urals price, which declined by 35% y-o-y, and with Conoco?s own net earnings, which fell by 67% y-o-y in 2009. In addition, ConocoPhillips repoted a USD 533mn impairment loss in the international E&P segment. This probably includes the previously announced write-off related to its Timan-Pechora JV with LUKOIL. We do not think it would have an impact on LUKOIL?s 4Q 09 results, as LUKOIL is unlikely to have booked the prospected resources. More details should be available in COP?s SEC filing in early February. Alexei Kokin / +7 (495) 933 3316 ext. 1417 / Quelle: Metropol
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