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Gestern und heute hatte ich endlich mal wieder etwas Zeit: TTTatsächlich ist es inzwischen gelungen, Öl aus Marmor und Wasser zu synthetisieren.
Dies geschah im Labor unter Druck- und Temperaturbedingungen, wie sie in 50km Tiefe herrschen. Die langkettigen kohlenwasserstoffverbindungen haben sich auch unter den hohen Temperaturen, die in 50km Tiefe normal sind als stabil erwiesen.
Grund hierfür sind natürlich der hohe Druck und die Abwesenheit von Sauerstoff.
Spinnt man die Theorie weiter, kann man zu dem Schluss gelangen, dass dieses Öl über Spaltem im Gestein in höher gelegene Öllagerstätten vordringen kann. Es kann diese bei Ausbeutung auch wieder auffüllen.
Wäre man in der Lage, tief genug zu bohren, könnte man fast überall auf der Erde Öl gewinnen.
Einer der Stützpfeiler der biotischen fossilen Theorie ist, dass im gewonnenen Öl biologische Chemikalien bzw. Reste von Organismen nachweisbar sind. Dies lässt sich allerdings ebenfalls mit neueren biologischen Erkenntnissen erklären, wonach die belebte Biosphäre bis zu einer Tiefe von 10km in den Boden reicht. Dort existente Bakterien, Archeae, .. sind in der Lage sich von Methan zu ernähren.
Darüber hinaus ließen sich die sehr großen Methaneis-Vorkommen in der Tiefsee durch abiogenes Methangas aus den Tiefen der Erde besser erklären als durch biologischen Ursprung: es ist einfach zuviel!
Ein großer Teil der toten und herabsinkenden Lebewesen wird -quasi on-its-way-down- von anderen Organismen zersetzt. Am Boden angekommen, existieren zahlreiche angepasste Baktierien, die den Zersetzungprozess größerer Tiere fortsetzen können.
Was mich jedenfalls stark verwundert ist, dass diese Theorie nicht breiter diskutiert wird!
Sollte sich die abiogenetische Öltheorie als korrekt erweisen, wird Öl eine große Renaissence erfahren und deutlich billiger werden.
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Das ist mit biologischen bzw. fossilen Ursprüngen schwer zu erklären. Hier sollte man eher erwarten, dass das Öl auch an EINER Lokalität in seiner Zusammensetzung schwankt.
Geht man von einem abiogenetischen Ursprung des Öls aus, ergibt sich aus der Zusammensetzung des Synthesegesteins automatisch ein stringent uniformes Öl.
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"TTTatsächlich ist es inzwischen gelungen, Öl aus Marmor und Wasser zu synthetisieren."
und woher kommt der kohlenstoff - vom Marmor oder vom Wasser?
Wenn du mir diese frage beantwortest - dann beschäftige ich mich weiter damit.
Ich halte von dieser "Theorie" - die MEINES WISSENS - NOCH NIE IN EINEM WISSENSCHAFTLICHEN Journal (peer review) veröffentlicht wurde (anmerkung meinerseits: weil unhaltbar und schlicht abstrus).
"Wäre man in der Lage, tief genug zu bohren, könnte man fast überall auf der Erde Öl gewinnen"
Tiefer (nach öl) findet man im bstenfalls nur noch ERDGAS (weil "öl", die langkettigen KWs durch den höheren druck und hitze tiefer "unten" zerebrechen in kürzer bestandteile und damit gasförmig werden.
"Sollte sich die abiogenetische Öltheorie als korrekt erweisen, wird Öl eine große Renaissence erfahren und deutlich billiger werden. "
DAS IST NICHT SCHLÜSSIG und wissenschaftlich auch nicht haltbar. Messbare Unterschiede in der zusammensetzung des öls sind NICHT von ihrem regionalen biotischen ursprung abhängig - sondern einzig und alleine von der erdgeschichtlichen entsteheung (alter, tiefe, Druck, Temperatur und gestein).
"Was mich jedenfalls stark verwundert ist, dass diese Theorie nicht breiter diskutiert wird!"
mich wundert das nicht. aber wenn Du auch nur einen wissenschaftlien ARtikel zu dieser abiotischen öltheorie findest- bitte mir schicken.
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"Das ist mit biologischen bzw. fossilen Ursprüngen schwer zu erklären. Hier sollte man eher erwarten, dass das Öl auch an EINER Lokalität in seiner Zusammensetzung schwankt."
@ alter schwede, sweit ich mitbekommen habe, hast Du ein naturwissenschaftliches studium absolviert - wenn ich mich recht erinnere, dann sogar Biologie. Mich wundert sehr, dass Du offenbar diese abiotische öltheorie für zumindest "möglich" hält. Überhaupt nichts gegen dich persönlich, gegenteil, ich schätze Dich (deine postings) sehr in diesem Forum, aber um ganz ehrlich zu zein, ich halte von dieser abiotischen ölentstehungstheorie genau gar nichts (wissenschaftlich ist sie nicht einmal "theorie", sondern bestenfalls "hypothese" - aber ok - das gilt auch für "Öl-peak").
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Als Wissenschaftler wird dir PNAS sicher etwas sagen.
Ich werde dir den Artikel (ich meine 2004) als PDF zusenden, wenn du mir deine Email gibst.
Ansonsten kann ich dir in einigen Stunden den Link posten.
Zugegebenerweise, dieser Satz:
"Das ist mit biologischen bzw. fossilen Ursprüngen schwer zu erklären. Hier sollte man eher erwarten, dass das Öl auch an EINER Lokalität in seiner Zusammensetzung schwankt."
Stammt aus einem anderen Artikel, der nicht in einem wissenschaftlichen rahmen veröffentlicht wurde.
Dort wurde nur die chemische MÖGLICHKEIT der Synthese von langkettigen Kohlenwasserstoffen aus in Gestein wie Marmor gebundenem Kohlenstoff und ins Gestein eingelagertem Wasser gezeigt.
Die Frage, woher der Kohlenstoff in so großen Tiefen stammen soll ist recht leicht zu beantworten:
Marmor besteht zu 50% aus Calcit oder Dolomit (CaMg(CO3)2 ), wenn mans mal einfach formuliert:
"Calcit, auch Kalzit oder Kalkspat, ist ein sehr häufig vorkommendes Mineral aus der Mineralklasse der wasserfreien Carbonate ohne fremde Anionen. Es kristallisiert im trigonalen Kristallsystem mit der chemischen Zusammensetzung Ca[CO3] und entwickelt verschiedene Kristall- beziehungsweise Aggregat-formen (Habitus), die entweder farblos oder von milchig weißer bis grauer, durch Verunreinigungen auch gelber, rosa, roter, blauer, grüner, brauner oder schwarzer Farbe sein können. Calcit kann sowohl massiv als auch körnig, faserig oder kristallin auftreten und zeigt in letzterem Falle den höchsten Formenreichtum aller Minerale. Es ist als Gestein bildendes Mineral eines der häufigsten der Erdkruste und kommt sowohl in magmatischen Gesteinen, zum Beispiel in Karbonatiten, in metamorphen Gesteinen (Marmor) oder Sedimentgesteinen wie Kalkstein vor. Es tritt alleine oder mit anderen Mineralen vergesellschaftet in Gängen auf, entsteht aber auch an der Erdoberfläche.
Als Karbonatit wird in der Geologie ein magmatisches Gestein bezeichnet, das mehr als 50% Karbonatminerale enthält, jedoch liegt der Anteil im allgemeinen bei 70% bis 90%. Hauptbestandteil sind Kalzium und CO2. Hauptminerale sind gewöhnlich Calcit, Dolomit, Ankerit sowie Siderit. Daneben kommen auch silikatische Minerale (Forsterit, Melilith, Diopsid, Ägirin, Wollastonit, Alkali-Amphibole, Phlogopit, Titanit, Zirkon, Alkalifeldspate, Oxide (Magnetit, Ilmenit, Rutil, Perowskit, Pyrochlor), sowie Apatite vor."
[Wiki]
Also Kohlenstoff ist erstaunlicherweise in Massen im Gestein vorhanden!
Weitere Stichworte sind Diamant, Graphit, Pegmatit.
;))
Bezüglich These/Theorie hast du recht. War ein umgangsprachlicher Fehler von mir... ;) Das hier ist allerdings auch nicht die Nature!! ;)
Wissenschaftler sollten alles für möglich halten!
;))
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Citigroup ups oil price forecast for third time this year
By Steve Goldstein
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup analysts upped their oil price forecast for the third time this year, moving 2008 Brent crude estimates by $10 a barrel to $80 a barrel, 2009 by $10 a barrel to $75 a barrel and "mid-cycle" estimates by $15 to $75 a barrel. "Risks to non-OPEC supply, and OPEC signalling a willingness to defend a higher price appear to us to be dominant factors in sustaining a higher near-term and long-term oil price," analysts said.
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071220/oil_prices.html
fallen unerwartet stark.
der aktuelle Ölpreis ist gemessen in ? übrigens nur knapp unter seinem ATH (USD hat zuletzt ja etwas zulegen können).
Das wir nicht LÄNGST eine 3 stelligen Ölpreis haben, liegt mM einzig daran, dass die Wirtschaftserwartungen für 2008 zuletzt deutlich nach unten revidiert wurden und sich für die USA immer mehr eine Rezession (+ Inflation) abzeichnet.
http://www.orf.at/?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.orf.at%2Fticker%2F274848.html
Bzgl. Ölpreis tue ich mir relativ LEICHT bei der Abschätzung (und Möglichkeiten) der Angebotsseite. Schwer tue ich mir bzgl. Nachfrageseite - diese wird zwar in 2008 besonders in Asien (aber auch OPEC und anderen Ländern - insbesondere schwellenländern) deutlich weitersteigen. Allerdings verbraucht die USA immer noch fast ein VIERTEL des weltweit geförderten Öls - und hat - zumindest auf dem Papier - ein nicht zu unterschätzendes Einsparungspotential. Im Falle einer Rezession (wie stark??) dann die Nachfrage aus den USA (und dann auch Europa) nachlassen würde, weiss ich nicht.
Ich gehe aber insgesamt weiter von HOHEN Ölpreisen auch in 2008 aus (mit möglicher saisonaler Korrektur im Februar) - eine OPEC die historisch gesehen NIEMALS zuvor über weniger Reservekapazitäten verfüge als aktuell - würde im Falle einer spürbar nachlassenden Nachfrage auch die Angebotsseite kürzen und damit einen Preis erzielen, der im Falle einer US Rezession durchaus niedriger sein könnte als aktuell, aber nicht unter die 200 Tageslinie fallen würde.
Meine persönliche Ölpeak szenario - einschätzung: 2008 wird geprägt sein von der US rezession, die die Nachfrage nach Öl etwas verringern wird - dies verlangsamung (des Nachfragewachstums)wird noch bis 2009 spürbar sein.
Die aktuelle OPEC- Reservekapazität von etwa 2 Mio Barrel pro Tag und die Bemühungen seitens der Saudis und Russland, werden aber im Laufe von 2010 ("bei globalem wirtschaftswachstum im durschnitt der letzten Jahre) - bis 2011 an ihre Grenzen stossen und 2012 wird es dann der MASSE bewusst, dass die Grenzen ereicht wurden und dass ab nun die förderquoten sogar sinken werden. - ZUGEGEBEN: futuristisch - und nichts weiter als meine aktuelle Prognose/EInschätzung, die sich aber natürlich ändern kann, wenn sie die zugrunde liegenden Parameter (besonders wirtschaftswachtum) ändern sollten.
Im falle von etwa anhaltenden geopolitische KRISEN wichtiger ölproduzierender Länder, wird es (ölpeak) vieleicht schon früher bewusst, wie sehr die weltförderung bereits an ihre maximalen grenzen gestossen ist.
Inflation wird in den nächsten Jahren weiter eine (grosse) rolle spielen (kann aber durch eine rezession gebremst bzw. durch einen deflationären Schock "unterbrochen" werden - man wird sehen, wie FED und andere dann reagieren).
daher bleibe ich auch bis auf weiteres bei meiner einschätzung, dass man etwas phsischen Gold haben sollte - mit Haltedauer auf sicht 2011/2012. (10 % ist absicherung, mehr ist spekulation).
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Das NAchfragewachstum kann in den jetzigen JAhren durch die steigerungsraten seitens Flüssiggas, öl aus den Ölsanden und schwere Öl aus TiefseegewÄsser (ausgeglichen werden. Hier herrscht aktuell ein (eher labiles) Gleichgewicht, dass aber durch die (historisch sehr knappe) OPEC reservekapazität ausbalanziert werden kann.
ÖLPEAK, wird der MASSE erst dann bewusst werden, wenn das Nachfragewachstum nicht mehr mit unkonventionellem Öl befriedigt werden kann. Und das wird spätest dann passieren, wenn die SUMMER ALLER KONVENTIONELLEN ÖLQUELLEN ihr aktuelle Produktion nicht mehr halten können und die Förderquoten - nach der "Plateeuphase" - zu fallen beginnen (Raten von -3 oder 4 % oder mehr können durch unkonventionelles Öl niemals aufgefangen werden.).
Und daher sage ich das "mediale Ölpeakszanrio erst für 2011/2012 vorraus - obwohl wir beim konventionellen Öl, ende 2005/2006 bereits das maximum gesehen haben.
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Pemex Misses Oil Goal as November Output Drops 8.2% (Update2)
By Thomas Black and Andres R. Martinez
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state oil monopoly, said November crude production fell 8.2 percent as the company failed to stem or make up for a three-year decline at its largest field.
Output fell to 2.9 million barrels of oil a day from 3.16 million a year earlier, Mexico City-based Pemex, as the company is known, said today in a report. Daily production also fell from 2.995 million barrels in October, when storms caused temporary shutdowns of offshore oil platforms.
Pemex's daily oil output dropped below 3 million barrels for three months this year as the company failed to meet the goal Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles set in June of keeping production at 3.1 million barrels a day until 2012. Reyes Heroles declined to comment about the declines after a press conference today in Mexico City.
Pemex's daily oil production may drop by 1 million barrels to 2.1 million barrels in nine years unless Mexico's Congress changes laws to give the company more independence and allow more private investment in the industry, Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said in a Dec. 11 speech.
Legislators will discuss an energy reform bill in the Congressional session that begins in February. The bill may allow private companies to invest in oil refining and pipelines to free up funds for Pemex to spend on exploration and production, Senator Ruben Camarillo, a member of President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party, said this week.
State Control
Under Mexican law, government-owned Pemex controls the oil industry, including everything from production to refining to selling gasoline at the pump.
Since it peaked at 3.38 million barrels per day in 2004, Pemex's oil production has been dropping, led by a decline at its Cantarell field. For the first 11 months this year, production has averaged 3.09 million barrels, the company said.
November output at Cantarell fell 23 percent from a year earlier to 1.28 million barrels a day, according to Mexico's Energy Information Agency. Output fell 3.2 percent from October's daily average.
Pemex, the third-largest oil provider to the U.S., exported 1.87 million barrels of oil per day in November, a 4.5 percent increase from a year earlier and a 25 percent jump from the previous month, according to today's report. The increase over the previous month was caused in part by inclement weather in October that blocked oil shipments and forced Pemex to stockpile crude.
Daily natural-gas production for November was 6.09 billion cubic feet, a 9.5 percent gain from a year earlier and a 4.1 percent decline from October.
To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Black in Monterrey, Mexico, at tblack@bloomberg.net ; Andres R. Martinez in Chicago at amartinez28@bloomberg.net .
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1. Production and prices.
Oil prices remained volatile as fears of oil shortages alternated with fears of an impending recession depending on the news of the day. Starting at $88 on Monday, oil climbed to $95 at midweek only to close at $91.58 on Friday as bad economic reports accumulated.
The IEA calculates that world oil production increased by 55,000 b/d to 86.5 million because of increased production in Mexico, China, and Brazil. The Agency says OPEC production dropped by 180,000 b/d in November while Platts says there was a small increase. Higher production from Saudi Arabia and Iraq helped offset a temporary maintenance-related drop of 400,000 b/d in the UAE?s output. Iran and Kuwait boosted output by 50,000 b/d while Algeria, Libya, Nigeria and Qatar increased output by about 10,000. With the UAE back to full production in December, production could be still higher.
The IEA reports that commercial OECD stockpiles dropped by 22.4 million barrels in October. (The EIA says 16 million.) A sharp drop in European stockpiles led the decline. Preliminary indications suggest that a similar decline will take place in November. The EIA says it appears that US domestic oil consumption will increase by 0.4 percent in 2007 with gasoline increasing by 0.6 percent.
The EIA and a number of independent analysts are forecasting a slight drop in oil prices over the next few months. While the fundamental supply/demand balance remains tight and stockpiles continue to shrink, they cite increased OPEC production of 400,000 b/d in the 1st quarter, forecasts of warmer weather, and the increasing likelihood of a recession as reasons for this judgment.
2. Mortgages and inflation
It now seems likely that the housing/mortgage/credit situation will play a central role in the peak oil story for years to come. Already a veritable avalanche of bad economic news competes daily with routine oil-related stories in determining the course of oil prices. Until recently, the OECD world seemed relatively immune to the inflationary pressures of $90 oil and $3 gasoline and, thanks to droughts and biofuels, soaring food prices -- but that is changing.
The Federal Reserve?s actions to improve liquidity and stave off a recession have played a large part in the decline of the dollar and the consequent $25 surge in oil prices this fall. Record oil prices turned up in the inflation numbers last week with a vengeance as producer prices showed their steepest gain in 34 years. Inflation in Europe took a similar bounce. If oil-price-induced inflation continues much longer, the Fed is going to have to think long and hard about further interest rate cuts for the feedback loop of lower dollar, higher oil, more inflation will only make the situation worse.
In recent days, however, more ominous insights into the credit situation have emerged. As government efforts to restore liquidity seem to be making little progress, observers are suggesting that many of our financial institutions have taken on so many loans that have or
soon will go bad that they are insolvent. To remedy a problem of this magnitude, housing prices will have to decrease by 30 percent to restore their normal relationship to incomes, and financial institutions will have to come clean as to the real extent of their potential losses.
This suggests it will take many years to stabilize the current credit situation and it will be very painful. It is clear that the peak oil is already inextricably involved with the credit situation just as peak oil is involved with global warming. It is a two-way street; rising oil prices from inadequate supplies will affect the credit-induced economic situation and serious economic problems will affect the demand for oil.
3. Iraq
The improving security situation in Iraq has led to a surprising increase of nearly 400,000 b/d in Iraq?s oil production, which Baghdad claims is now 2.5 million b/d. Exports are now approaching 2 million b/d which is above the pre-2003 levels. Nearly all of this increase is due to the opening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan, Turkey pipeline that until recently had been closed by sabotage.
How long this situation remains is difficult to predict. Although extraordinary efforts are being made to protect the northern pipeline, there has been little letup in insurgent activities in northern Iraq. Last week three pylons on a power line sending electricity south to Baghdad were blown up. The Kurds vs.Turkey situation continues to fester with Turkish air strikes on Kurdish villages in Iraq last week. With a national oil law stalled in parliament, the Kurds are continuing to sign agreements with foreign oil companies, much to Baghdad?s displeasure.
In the south, British forces pulled out of Basra yesterday, turning the city over to 30,000 Iraqi troops and security personnel. Maintaining security and oil exports in the factionalized city will be the biggest test yet for the Baghdad government. Given the current world supply situation, the loss of even part of Iraq?s 2 million b/d of exports to insurgent attacks is bound to have a more significant impact on oil prices than in previous years.
4. 2008
The possibility that serious economic difficulties are in the offing has made projections of oil demand through 2008 more controversial than usual. During the last week, three major prognosticators ? the IEA, the EIA, and OPEC ? and several major financial institutions came out with their estimates of what demand will look like next year.
First out was the OECD?s IEA which now foresees world oil demand growing by 2.1 million b/d next year. The upward revision is based on an expected increase in demand for ethane and other petrochemical feedstocks in the Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia. This forecast assumes that there will be economic problems in the US and other OECD countries, but continuing robust oil demand growth in non-OECD countries, where subsidies protect people from the impact of high oil prices.
In contrast to the IEA, OPEC economists foresee a growth of only 1.3 million b/d because of increasing world economic problems. The US?s EIA foresees a ?mild slowdown in global economic growth? and comes up with demand growing by 1.38 million b/d. Observers have pointed out that these are all ?politically correct? forecasts reflecting the goals and biases of the organizations? sponsors.
Goldman-Sachs remains bullish, believing that oil demand remains robust in the US and Japan, and is accelerating in China and Korea. "The softening of the balance in 2008 will likely be modest and short-lived," while the second half of the year could see "demand recover more quickly than OPEC supplies increase." Goldman-Sachs foresees oil going to $105 a barrel next year. Other prominent commentators see economic problems forcing oil prices lower in 2008 and believe they certainly will not break 2007?s highs.
Judging from the scale of the pressures that are building up in the financial markets, the answer to all this will probably depend on how fast and far the impending economic troubles spread.
4. ENERGY BRIEFS
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Beijing turned the tables on the US on Wednesday after years of criticism from Washington of its handling of the Chinese economy, warning of the serious global implications of the weak dollar, recent US interest rate cuts and the subprime crisis.
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South Africa?s economy is facing serious power shortages after the government failed to heed pleas by state power utility Eskom to invest more in electricity generation.
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Syria, now a net oil importer, is having trouble affording the subsidies it pays to keep petroleum products cheap. The government is afraid that removing the subsidies will fuel inflation and spark discontent among people used to cheap oil products.
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Spanish gas consumption hit an all-time daily high on Thursday because of high demand from electricity producers and increased domestic use due to low temperatures.
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The airline industry has cut its forecast for profits next year by a third as soaring fuel costs and the credit crunch begin to take their toll. Global aviation would make profits of $5 billion in 2008, compared with a previous forecast of $7.8 billion. The greatest burden on airlines next year will be fuel prices, with the increase in prices set to add $14 billion to the industry fuel bill, to $149 billion.
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The cost of shipping oil in supertankers from the Middle East to Asia may extend gains from a three-year high because of dwindling supplies of ships available for hire in January. Freight rates for supertankers have almost quadrupled in the past month. The oil spill caused by a tanker collision off South Korea last week increased demand for double-hulled vessels that are less prone to leaking their cargoes.
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Nigeria is beginning the first major overhaul of its petroleum industry in decades, a move expected to make it tougher for international oil companies to make profits. The planned changes include ?rebalancing the relationship" between the state and foreign energy companies -- code for handing over more oil profits. Contracts are up for renewal and were signed when oil traded at about $20 a barrel.
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Darfur rebels said they attacked a Chinese-run oil field in Sudan last week and vowed to launch more assaults on other installations. The Chinese government has istated, ?the safety of Chinese personnel in Sudan must be effectively guaranteed."
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A lack of precipitation has led to wide-spread power shortages in North Korea which generates much of its electricity from hydro power. With the winter dry season coming up, the situation is bound to get worse.
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Saudi Arabia is on a $600 billion building binge to diversify its economy. Many of the projects underway ? aluminum, chemical, and plastic plants?will consume large quantities of oil. This raises the question of just how much Saudi less oil will be available for export when the projects become operational.
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Much of the Middle East?s new oil production will never leave the region. A Lehman Brothers report predicts that oil needs in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain will jump by almost 200,000 barrels a day next year alone.
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Mexican crude exports will decline over the next decade if the industry is left with insufficient funds to invest in exploration and production. The oil ministry's worst-case scenario has exports slipping to 289,000 barrels a day by 2016, down from an estimated 1.7 million barrels a day this year. Mexico relies on crude exports for around 40% of its budget and is a top crude supplier to the U.S.
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China increased crude oil output by 1 percent to 3.74 million b/d last month to meet rising energy demand in an economy that expanded by 11.5 percent in the third quarter.. The nation's coal demand growth may slow to between 6 percent and 8 percent as the government's efforts to control economic growth take effect. Coal-fired electricity generation, however, may rise 12 percent next year,
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Japan is speeding up its drive to promote biofuels. Tax changes aimed at encouraging motorists to use bio-gasoline are expected in a few months as the third-largest oil consumer started to sell bio-gasoline at a limited number of gas stations earlier this year on a trial basis.
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Toshiba announced plans to start selling rechargeable batteries next year. Describing its new Super Charge ion Battery, or SCiB, as a "breakthrough rechargeable battery", the company says it can be fully recharged in five minutes and has a lifespan of more than 10 years if completely run down and recharged once a day.
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Congress is ramping up political pressure for increased government regulation of US crude markets to curtail speculative trading and market manipulation in electronic markets. The House Agriculture Committee is expected to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission greater power to regulate the market when it re-authorizes the agency and the Senate is working on an amendment to the farm bill that would give the CFTC even greater authority to police unregulated electronic trading markets.
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Pakistan?s oil reserves have plummeted to the lowest-ever level in the country?s history and the stocks of major oil products ? kerosene and diesel ? are sufficient for six days only.
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Unions representing striking Italian truckers said on Wednesday they were suspending a three-day-old blockade that cut off fuel supplies, closed factories and stopped food reaching the shops. The unions said they decided to halt the protest after the government promised to address their main concerns, including reducing diesel costs.
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UK truck drivers gathered outside oil refineries around the British Isles on Saturday to protest rising fuel costs. Organizers won't block refineries and depots as they did in 2000 when U.K. fuel distribution was brought to a standstill. Demonstrators are seeking to have the government scrap proposals to raise fuel taxes by 2 pence a litre in April and defer a similar increase that went into effect in October.
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Iran signed a $2 billion oil contract with Sinopec of China last week, sending a signal to western companies that they might miss out on potentially lucrative contracts if they continued to heed US-inspired sanctions against Tehran
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http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-1202094447768724463
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Unabhängig davon ob man an den anstehenden "ÖLPEAK" glaubt oder nicht - das Hauptproblem ist aber weiterhin, dass das Angebot mit der Nachfrage nicht mehr schritt halten kann (und nur noch mit steigenden Preisen der "Ausgleich" geschaffen wird - heisst, einige die Öl bräuchten, können es sich nicht mehr kaufen).
Das ist letztlich für mich das entscheidene Kriterium, warum ich in Energiewerte und Edelmetalle (Inflation; real:negativzins) investiere und nicht weil ich glaube (es aber nicht 100%ig davon ausgehen kann), dass "ÖLPEAK" anstehenden Realität ist.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071227/oil_prices.html
Beängstigend wie in den US die Lagerbestände fallen. 3 Möglichkeiten:
- eine US Rezession führt zu einem spürbaren Nachlassen der Nachfrage nach Rohöl
- die OPEC (kein Interesse an einer Ölpreisindiuzierten Rezession) erhöht die Produktion im Jänner
- oder wir haben bald 3 stellige Ölpreise.
Normalerweise sollte ab ende Jänner (wenn man aufhört Heizöl zu kaufen), ein saisonal bedingtes Überangebot zu einer Entspannung des Ölpreises führen (die OPEC könnte sich mit einem solchen Hinweis über diesen Winter retten). Einige (Geologen und andere PEAK Oil "Aktivisten") sind ja der Meinung, dass die OPEC nicht mehr wesentlich erhöhen kann.
Andere Info, die ich habe, besagen, dass die OPEC aktuell immmer noch über eine Reservekapazität von etwa 2 Mio Barrel/Tag verfügt (nach etwa 12 Mio Barrel/Tag 1986). Wie auch immer die Reservekapazität der OPEC ist gering geworden und es bedarf erhebliche Investitionen, diese in den nächsten Jahren zu erhöhen (bei gleichzeitig steigendem Bedarf und Produktion). SaudiArabien hat diese Investitionen angekündigt - gespannt werde ich die nächsten Monate beobachten. Ich bin nach wievor skeptisch. Handfeste Beweise für einen aktuellen ÖLPEAK gibt es keine, aber zumindest doch viele in meinen Augen glaubwürdige Daten und Berechnungen, die einen solchen für den Zeitraum zwischen JETZT und 2018 festlegen.
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Crude inventories in the US fell by 3.3 million barrels last week as demand continued to edge up and imports remained below the roughly 10 million b/d needed to support domestic consumption. US crude stocks have declined by 60 million barrels in the last six months and are now below the 5-year average of 300 million barrels for this time of year. Total US commercial stockpiles for crude and products have dropped by roughly about 59 million barrels during 2007.
While gasoline stockpiles appear adequate for the time being, US distillate stocks dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week as imports dropped to 143,000 barrels per day. Distillate stocks are now down 11 percent for the year and are at the bottom of the 5-year average range for December.
Net US crude and product imports during 2007 are down by 93 million barrels (2 percent) over 2006. Total US consumption of petroleum products, however, increased by a modest 17 million barrels over the year. The situation for distillates, which are currently much in demand by China, is worse with US stockpiles dropping by 16 million barrels or 11 percent during 2007.
Some are beginning to ask if a major turning point was reached about 6 months ago. World oil production has been flat for the past three years. US and European consumption has been flat while consumption by India, China, and the oil producers have been increasing rapidly. The shortfalls largely have been made up by reduced consumption in poor countries that cannot afford to import oil at current prices. The poorer countries, however, can only cut back imports by so much before they reach an irreducible minimum.
If that minimum has been reached, then the OECD countries are living off stockpiles. When the minimum operating level for these stockpiles is reached and shortages start to occur, the bidding war for imports will shift into high gear, and much higher prices will ensue.
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Angehängte Grafik:
us_crude_inventories.jpg (verkleinert auf 70%)
us_crude_inventories.jpg (verkleinert auf 70%)
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Vol. 2 No. 53
December 31, 2007
Tom Whipple, Editor
1. Production and prices.
Oil prices rose during light holiday trading last week, reaching a high of $97.92 on Friday before closing lower on year-end profit taking and forecasts of warmer weather in the US. The increase was sparked by the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto, another Turkish air strike on the Kurdish villages in Iraq, and a larger than expected drawdown in US crude stockpiles.
Prices have risen 57 percent this year, primarily on forecasts for continuing tight supplies. Crude futures hit an intraday record of $99.29 a barrel Nov. 21. Open interest in oil futures contracts continue to climb, indicating that traders are expecting still higher prices in the New Year.
2. US petroleum inventories
Crude inventories in the US fell by 3.3 million barrels last week as demand continued to edge up and imports remained below the roughly 10 million b/d needed to support domestic consumption. US crude stocks have declined by 60 million barrels in the last six months and are now below the 5-year average of 300 million barrels for this time of year. Total US commercial stockpiles for crude and products have dropped by roughly about 59 million barrels during 2007.
While gasoline stockpiles appear adequate for the time being, US distillate stocks dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week as imports dropped to 143,000 barrels per day. Distillate stocks are now down 11 percent for the year and are at the bottom of the 5-year average range for December.
Net US crude and product imports during 2007 are down by 93 million barrels (2 percent) over 2006. Total US consumption of petroleum products, however, increased by a modest 17 million barrels over the year. The situation for distillates, which are currently much in demand by China, is worse with US stockpiles dropping by 16 million barrels or 11 percent during 2007.
Some are beginning to ask if a major turning point was reached about 6 months ago. World oil production has been flat for the past three years. US and European consumption has been flat while consumption by India, China, and the oil producers have been increasing rapidly. The shortfalls largely have been made up by reduced consumption in poor countries that cannot afford to import oil at current prices. The poorer countries, however, can only cut back imports by so much before they reach an irreducible minimum.
If that minimum has been reached, then the OECD countries are living off stockpiles. When the minimum operating level for these stockpiles is reached and shortages start to occur, the bidding war for imports will shift into high gear, and much higher prices will ensue.
3. Policies shifting in China
Chinese energy policies appear headed for changes as rapid growth collides with inflation-fighting efforts and environmental degradation. Last week Beijing announced a proposal to set up a high-level body to oversee energy issues. The goal of this organization is to improve the efficiency of energy production and utilization.
The shortage of diesel fuel that has been troublesome in recent months now appears to be spreading to gasoline. In November Chinese oil consumption increased by an unusually low one percent. Despite a recent price increase, government mandated price caps that are far below costs of acquisition and refining are causing refiners to take massive losses.
In an attempt to remedy this situation China imported 2 million barrels of diesel fuel in November, another 3 million in December and plans to import 3.6 million barrels in January. Increases at this pace are bound to distort the world distillate market causing higher prices in the coming year.
If current trends continue, by 2010 China will be importing half of its petroleum requirements. In preparation for this the State Council issued a report saying that China wants to eliminate dependence on spot purchases and will seek to sign more long-term bi-lateral contracts guaranteeing its imported oil supply.
Environmental issues stemming from rapid growth continue. There are plans to phase in cleaner motor fuels in and around Beijing in an effort to clean up smoggy skies prior to the Olympic Games. Another report issued by the State Council says China will give top priority to developing renewable energy. The reports goes on to say, however, that rapid economic growth will require increased consumption of coal and the report does not embrace binding limits on green house gases. All this suggests that Beijing understands there soon will be limits on its ability to produce and import petroleum and is looking to a future based on greater energy efficiency, more coal, and ultimately renewables.
4. Energy Briefs
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Oil shipments through the pipeline from Iraq's Kirkuk oil fields into the Turkish Mediterranean export terminal at Ceyhan halted Thursday night according to a local shipping agent.
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The IEA has admitted that it has been paying insufficient attention to supply bottlenecks as evidence mounts that oil is being discovered more slowly than once expected. The Agency has started work on a new study to be published next year that will rework its long-term projections for global oil reserves.
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There may have been a breakthrough in the standoff between Kazakhstan and the foreign oil companies developing the massive Kashagan oil field. Kazakh President Nazarbayev has called the heads of the six foreign oil firms to the Kazakh capital for a meeting on Jan. 11, a signal that the two sides could be close to a deal.
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Iraq ends 2007 with oil production at 2.4 million b/d, a level not seen since before the war. There could be troubles ahead in 2008 however. With Turkey bombing Kurdish villages inside Iraq it is only a question of time before the export pipeline to Turkey is closed. A national oil law has yet to be passed and trouble is brewing between Baghdad
and the Kurds over oil leases to foreign countries. The British have pulled out of the key export terminal at Basra, leaving the city largely in the hands of warring militias.
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The Central Bank of Sudan will deal only in the euro beginning in 2008 and advised local commercial banks to opt for convertible currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
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The Nigerian government granted the request of multinational oil companies to shift the deadline for halting gas flaring from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008. This action has led to protests from around the world. The deadline for gas flaring has been extended several times before by the Federal Government.
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India imported 6.5 percent more crude in November than a year earlier as domestic demand continued to grow. Petrol sales during the month were up 17.1 percent year on year, while diesel sales, which account for nearly a third of domestic consumption, rose 10.3 percent.
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Rising energy costs triggered the biggest jump in Japanese consumer prices in almost a decade while industrial production slumped. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for some time, even as energy-fueled inflation accelerates. The nationwide core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, jumped 0.4 percent in November
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Edinburgh is set to become one of the first UK cities to actively try to reduce its dependency on oil. The ?Transition City? initiative confronts the dual problem of "peak oil" and climate change, which is when there is not enough oil to keep the economy running, combined with a need to cut carbon levels.
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An uneasy calm returned to the oil-rich Persian Gulf island nation of Bahrain on Wednesday after a week of clashes between Shiite Muslim opposition groups and forces of the Sunni-dominated government.
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Earlier this year, Toyota forecast group-wide sales of 10.4 million vehicles in 2009, possibly becoming the first automaker to reach the 10 million-unit annual sales milestone. 2007 vehicle sales should come close to 9 million.
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South Korea is set to overhaul its energy sector in 2008 under a new president who has made privatizing state-owned energy companies and securing massive investments to ensure stable oil supplies his top priorities.
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Iran signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Malaysia on Wednesday to develop two offshore Iranian gas fields, boasting that the planned investment was the biggest ever in the country.
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Gasoline could average $3.75 a gallon across the U.S. in a few months, pushing the price in California up and over the $4 mark according to energy analysts. They cite several factors including persistently strong crude prices and the fact that the traditional December drop in pump prices didn't materialize.
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The Iraqi government announcement that monthly food rations will be cut by half, due to a doubling in the cost of food, has left many Iraqis asking how they can survive. Many fear the food ration cuts can spark unrest.
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Iran has stopped most exports of natural gas to Turkey just as consumption reaches record levels during winter. Iran blamed the shortfall on a malfunctioning compressor station, and the two sides are in talks to resolve the issue, the officials said.
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Tokyo Electric Power Co. will delay construction of a nuclear plant by a year to incorporate new earthquake-resistance features following a quake in July that damaged and shut its biggest atomic power facility.
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EV Energy Co., the battery-making joint venture between Toyota and Matsushita, has begun studies at its Omori factory geared to the mass production of lithium-ion batteries.
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The Middle East's share of Japan's crude imports fell to 84.3% in November from 89.4% a year ago, with crude imports from Russia and Vietnam increasing.
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The latest federal figures show US coal production dipped slightly this year. The 1.4% decline hit Appalachian states such as Virginia and Kentucky the hardest, while production in the West is essentially flat.
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Cuba will produce nearly 3 million metric tons of crude oil and more than 1.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas for the year, enough to meet almost half the island's fuel needs, state media reported Wednesday.
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Basra, where most of Iraq?s oil exports originate, is in the throes of a power struggle in which militia rivals compete with provincial police forces and central government authorities. The head of the provincial council says security committees the government has set up in Basra refuse to cooperate with the provincial police forces.
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Iran will soon announce an international tender for building 19 nuclear power plants, a week after Russia said it had begun fuel deliveries to the Islamic state's first such facility. A spokesman for parliament's national security and foreign policy committee said each power plant would have a capacity of 1,000 megawatt of electricity.
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Russia will increase its tax on oil exports by at least 18 percent on Feb.1, a Finance Ministry official said.
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Standard case 2012/2013
Worst case: 2008
(ich gehe vom standard case aus - wobei KONVENTIONELLES ÖL bereits in der Plateuphase ist - der mehrbedarf kann nur noch wenige Jahre aus der sehr langsam (weil sehr aufwenidig und teuer) steigenden Produktion aus den kanadischen Ölsanden, bzw. schweröl aus dem venezuelanischen Orinicobecken und Polaröl gedeckt werden)
wenn die USA nicht in die Rezession gehen sollte, werden wir uns schon sehr bald an einen 3 stelligen Ölpreis gewöhnen müssen.
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080102/oil_prices.html
Oil Closer to $100 on Nigeria Violence
Wednesday January 2, 11:26 am ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Crude Oil Futures Push Closer to $100 a Barrel on Nigeria Violence, OPEC Outlook
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices jumped sharply Wednesday, once again approaching $100 a barrel on supply concerns sparked by renewed violence in Nigeria and a warning that OPEC may not be able to meet its share of global oil demand by 2024.
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Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains.
In Nigeria, bands of armed men invaded Port Harcourt, the center the oil industry Tuesday, attacking two police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel. Four policemen, three civilians and six attackers were killed. The Niger Delta Vigilante Movement claimed responsibility for the attack.
"Although the violence has not impacted oil flow out of the country, it has reignited supply concerns as militant attacks have reduced Nigeria's crude output by roughly 20 percent since 2006," said John Gerdes, an analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in a research note. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer.
Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said its member nations may not be able to meet demand as early as 2024, though OPEC also said that deadline could slide for decades if members increase production more quickly.
Still, the warning gave investors pause, said Amanda Kurzendoerfer, an analyst at Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Ky.
"They're talking about, in 20 years, not being able to meet demand," Kurzendoerfer said.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $2.48 to $98.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday. News of the Mexican port closures added to the supply concerns, pushing crude futures as high as $98.71. The three ports handle most of Mexico's 1.7 million barrels of daily exports.
Oil last traded over $98 a barrel on Nov. 26, a few days after rising to a record high of $99.29. Oil prices are within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices rose 0.6 cent Wednesday to a national average of $3.049 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices, which typically lag the futures market, have edged higher in recent days as oil has approached $100.
Gas prices peaked at $3.227 a gallon in May as refiners faced unprecedented maintenance issues and struggled to produce enough gasoline to meet demand. A similar scenario is expected this spring, when gas prices could peak above $3.40 a gallon, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration.
But until the production rises in the spring to meet summer driving demand, gasoline prices will follow oil's lead, analysts say. Oil prices have risen in recent weeks in part on concerns about supply disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria, and as domestic inventories have fallen for several weeks in a row.
Inventories likely fell last week by 1.8 million barrels, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. That expectation was also pushing oil prices higher, analysts said.
"(A decline) is not anything unusual for this time of year, but when it happens for 7 weeks in a row, it starts to add up," Kurzendoerfer said.
The EIA's inventory report, delayed until Thursday this week due to the New Year's holiday, is also expected to show gains in gasoline supplies and refinery activity, and a decline in supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel.
In other Nymex trading Wednesday, February heating oil futures rose 6.46 cents to $2.714 a gallon while February gasoline futures climbed 6.72 cents to $2.558 a gallon. February natural gas futures advanced 22.4 cents to $7.707 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, February Brent crude rose $2.15 to $96.62 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Associated Press Writers George Jahn in Vienna and Gillian Wong in Singapore contributed to this report.
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Nigeria (wenn ich es richtig im Kopf habe) - ist NACH Saudia Arabien, Canada, Mexico und Venezuela, der grösste exporteur für die USA.
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It is obvious that the peak of oil production will not be evident until some years after it has happened, but
data published by Matt Simmons suggests that the major companies (ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Total, Repsol,
ENI and Conoco-Phillips) may have peaked already. Their combined production in January 1997 was 12.4
Mb/d and rose to a maximum 13.8 Mb/d in January 2004, before falling to 12.6 Mb/d in January 2007. It is
naturally not a smooth curve, but if this year?s results confirm the downward trend, it may signify that they
are past peak.
In years past, seven major companies (Exxon, Mobil, Shell, BP, Gulf, Texaco, Chevron) substantially
controlled world oil supply, but they successively lost their rights in several major producing countries, and
now control no more than about 10% of the world?s reserves. Financial pressures led them to merge, such
that the seven are now reduced to four (ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ChevronTexaco). This allowed them to shed
staff and contract in a diplomatic manner without disturbing the stockmarket.
They are now selling off minor refineries and marketing chains, evidently recognising that they will have
downstream over-capacity as supply constraints bite in earnest. They are also buying their own stock to
artificially support the stock market.
As their situation continues to change, we may look forward to the day when an enlightened Chief
Executive abandons words of the false optimism promising eternal growth but offers his shareholders a well
managed, intelligent and highly profitable contraction towards the day their company finally closes its doors
in the not too distant future.
The countries that expropriated the rights of the foreign companies, as was their national prerogative, are
commonly accused of resource nationalism. It offends the dictates of out-dated globalism, which claims that
the resources of any country belong to the highest bidder. A politician in such a country representing the
interests of his electors can be forgiven for doing his best to preserve his country?s critical energy supplies
for the benefit of its citizens, thereby indirectly giving them a commercial advantage. The intelligent investor
would prefer this approach to false promises that run in the face of the constraints of Nature.
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Institut rechnet mit Verdoppelung des Ölpreises bis 2018
Der Anstieg des Ölpreises auf hundert Dollar pro Barrel ist nach Ansicht des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) noch lange nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange.
Vielmehr sei mit einer Verdoppelung des Preises innerhalb der kommenden zehn Jahre zu rechnen, sagte DIW-Energie-Expertin Claudia Kemfert der "Berliner Zeitung". "Die Ölvorräte werden zunehmend knapp, und das wird die Preise weiter hochtreiben." Der Ölpreis war beim Handel in New York am Mittwoch erstmals auf 100 Dollar pro Barrel (159 Liter) geschnellt.
"In fünf Jahren ist ein Ölpreis von 150 Dollar wahrscheinlich, in zehn Jahren sogar ein Preis von 200 Dollar", sagte Kemfert. Der jüngste Preisanstieg sei allerdings zu großen Teilen spekulationsbedingt: "Der Anteil am Ölpreis, der auf Spekulation zurückzuführen ist, dürfte etwa 20 Prozent betragen."
Eine Entspannung beim Ölpreis sei in den nächsten Wochen nicht zu erwarten, prognostizierte die Expertin. "Ich rechne kurzfristig sogar eher mit einem weiteren Anstieg bis auf 105 Dollar." Frühestens Ende Januar, wenn die Nachfrage nach Heizöl allmählich nachlasse, sei vorläufig eine Stabilisierung oder sogar wieder ein Rückgang des Ölpreises vorstellbar.
© AFP
Im Prinzip alles alter Kaffee, wissen wir hier doch schon lange...
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hier also mal eine Gegenmeinung der FTD:
| FTD: Die große Ölhysterie |
Es darf wieder geschrien und gezittert werden: Der Ölpreis hat die Marke von 100 $ erreicht. Dahinter stecken aber nicht Angebot und Nachfrage, sondern Finanzinvestoren wie der Pensionsfonds Calpers. Die Korrektur wird kommen. Es war zu erwarten: Kaum erreicht der Ölpreis die historische Marke von 100 $, schon warten die ersten Experten mit ehrgeizigen Prognosen auf: Das DIW zum Beispiel wirft 200 $ ins Feld und kann sich der Schlagzeilen gewiss sein. Droht jetzt die Energiekrise? Geht der Welt das Öl aus? Nein, im Gegenteil: Die Korrektur wird kommen. |
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http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/101/39/...TINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT
eigentlich eine Hypothese der abiotischen Methanbildung. Lediglich die Möglichkeit der Bildung von Methan (CH4) unter bestimmten im Erdmantel vorkommenden Bedingungen wird in der o.g. Untersuchung nachgewiesen. Die Bildung längerkettiger KW wird von den Autoren zwar nicht ausgeschlossen, ist aber nicht Bestandteil ihrer Untersuchung. Die über die Methanbildung hinausgehenden, vom Alten Schweden angesprochenen Aspekte, sind nicht Inhalt der o.g. Untersuchung. Im Gegenteil, die Autoren betonen: "In particular, isotopic evidence indicating the prevalence of biogenic hydrocarbons pertains to economically exploited hydrocarbon gas reservoirs, largely in sedimentary basins (2); these observations and analyses do not rule out the potential for large abiogenic reservoirs in the mantle."
Aus dieser Untersuchung läßt sich lediglich eine alternative Methanbildung (und möglicherweise größeren Methanvorkommen als bis dahin angenommen) ableiten. Über eine alternative Entstehung von Erdöl wird dort nicht berichtet. Auch von bisher unentdeckten (und unvermuteten) Eröllagerstätten ist dort ausdrücklich nicht die Rede!
Interessant ist der o.g. Artikel allemal, aber ein Paradigmenwechsel bezüglich der weltweiten Erdölvorkommen steht demnach nicht an!
