GSD Friday Recap.
AU: $2715 ($2561 - Last Week Spot) AG: $31.31 (30.18) HUI: 308 (285) DXY: 107.5 (106.7) S&P: 5969 (5870) 10-Yr: 4.4% (4.4%) Oil: $70 (67)
The story remains the stock market, with the S&P closing near 6000 and remaining strong. The other story was gold, ripping back above $2700 and up 6% ($155) for the week. The HUI was up 8%, but the HUI at 308 remains anemic and well below its 2020 cycle high of 365. Newmont ($43) and Barrick ($18) both remain laggards as benchmarks. I'm pessimistic for the gold/silver miners until the stock market stops going up. We need a fear trade on Wall Street so that they will buy gold miners as a hedge for uncertainty. Right now, uncertainty is lacking on Wall Street.
We have a lot of uncertainty with the economy on the periphery, such as housing, credit card delinquencies, cost-of-living issues, restaurant softness, vehicle sales, small business growth, etc. However, these issues currently are not worrying Wall Street, and that's all that matters. Until something concerns Wall Street, we wait. The only data point that really matters is the S&P 500. Above 5900, and Wall Street is in Kumbaya mode. An analyst on the CNBC Halftime Show today said he was giddy regarding the market. He will remain giddy above 5900.
The S&P's strength is required to support both the economy and US Government bond market. Without a strong stock market, tax revenue will drop from lower capital gains. Lower tax revenues will impact the already huge government budget deficit. Then, this huge budget deficit will impact the US Government bond market. So, the stock market is a trigger for government debt increasing, and the bond market becoming more fragile.
It's amazing how important the stock market has become, and once it falters, it will generate a fear trade into gold. Without a strong stock market, uncertainty will explode. You will get higher unemployment, higher debt, banking fragility, dollar weakness (as foreign money leaves), inflation (from required money printing), and bond market fragility. Incredibly, with all of these looming issues, Wall Street and the Fed are pretending that there is nothing on the horizon to worry about. These looming issues are what gold is sniffing out, and it all eventually leads to a bond market problem. Got Gold?
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