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von Dundee Capital Markets Vice President and Senior Mining Analyst David A. Talbotn
DT: Lithium carbonate is up 15% year over year and is now priced at over $6,000/tonne. Lithium hydroxide is getting more attention and is priced between $6,000-8,000/tonne, up 25% over last year. Some industry participants have noticed that transactions for both compounds have reached about $9,500/tonne recently. The lithium market might already be at a deficit. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence pegs 2015 demand at 175 Kt of lithium carbonate equivalent, and supply at about 150 Kt; SignumBOX, another consultant, estimates that lithium demand will grow at 7.4% compounded annually through 2030, and that lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices will range from $8,000–12,000/tonne by 2030. With these prices expected to rise dramatically, there ought to be lots of incentive to get projects up and running.
TER: Give us your top picks in the lithium space.
DT: We recently initiated coverage on Nemaska Lithium Inc. (NMX:TSX.V; NMKEF:OTCQX) with a Buy rating and a CA$1/share target. This is Canada's only significant, public lithium developer. Its world-class Whabouchi project in Québec is large and homogeneous, with high grades and low levels of impurities. The project is fully permitted and Nemaska has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with London-based Johnson Matthey Battery Materials Ltd. for $12M to get its phase 1 lithium hydroxide plant running. The financing unlocks another $26M in government funding that will cover costs for three years. Construction of the phase 1 demonstration plant is a major step toward technical and financial derisking. It allows Nemaska to nail the process, attract customers, comfort investors and arrange additional project financing for phase 2, which is the full plant. Nemaska is planning to process lithium hydroxide directly from high-quality spodumene concentrate at low costs.
We also recommend Orocobre with a Buy rating and AU$2.70/share target. Orocobre continues to ramp up production at its Olaroz project in Argentina. This is the first new lithium mine in 19 years. The bottlenecking program at Olaroz is progressing, and further equipment has been ordered to ensure the plant reaches capacity. That should finish by mid-January 2016 and allow the operation to ramp up to 17 Kt lithium carbonate per year. Recently, Orocobre signed an MOU with Bateman Advanced Technologies, which is a subsidiary of Tenova SPA, to develop a lithium hydroxide plant in Argentina. Management suggests potential production of 15–25 Kt per year of lithium hydroxide in addition to its lithium carbonate production.
Quelle
https://www.equities.com/news/uranium-lithium-and-other-ways-to-play-the-rise-of-green-energy
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