Stock Focus: Electronics Distributors
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interessant
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gut analysiert
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Arik Hesseldahl, Forbes.com, 03.21.01, 8:51 AM ET
NEW YORK - When there's a turnaround in the fortunes of the semiconductors industry, you'll probably see first evidence of it among electronics distributors.
PC makers get their parts--such as processors, memory, and miscellaneous capacitors and resistors--from distributors like Arrow Electronics (nyse: ARW - news - people) and Avnet (nyse: AVT - news - people). Together, the two companies control over 50% of the North American electronics distribution market.
"These stocks are among the first ones that will rally in a market upturn," says analyst Robert Damron of Tucker Anthony Sutro Capital Markets. Damron thinks that distributors will weather the electronics industry downturn better than companies such as Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people) and Compaq Computer (nyse: CPQ - news - people).
Arrow, the biggest distributor, finished last year with nearly $358 million in profits on revenue of $12.9 billion. Arrow benefited from the tight supply of components, which plagued the semiconductors and electronics equipment sectors through most of last year, and from large acquisitions made over the last two years.
The second-largest player, Avnet, finished its most recent fiscal year (on June 30, 2000) with a $145 million profit on sales of $9.1 billion. In its most recent quarter, which ended in December, Avnet recorded a profit of $72 million on sales of $3.4 billion.
Chipmakers like Intel and Motorola (nyse: MOT - news - people) blamed their sliding earnings in part on the violent swing from a component supply shortage to a supply glut. Last fall, the changing fortunes of the big semiconductor companies quickly spread to stocks such as Arrow and Avnet, which are still off 45% and 40%, respectively, from their 52-week highs.
Both Arrow and Avnet have spent the last year expanding beyond distributing electronics parts and into moving finished systems like PCs, servers and peripherals through the distribution channel. For Avnet, sales of computer products from companies like Intel, IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people) and Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HWP - news - people) accounted for $2.2 billion, or 18%, of its sales last calendar year.
"Both of these companies are benefiting from diversifying their business models," says Damron. Arrow and Avnet are trading at just six and eight times estimated 2001 earnings, respectively. "Buy them while they're cheap," adds Damron.
Avnet and Arrow have also been on an acquisitive streak over the last two years. In 1999 Avnet spent $762 million to acquire distributor Marshall Industries. Last year, Arrow and Avnet teamed up in an unprecedented move to purchase and carve up its number-three competitor, Germany's Veba Electronics, for a combined $2.35 billion. That acquisition gave both companies a stronger foothold in Europe.
Damron also likes Kent Electronics (nyse: KNT - news - people), which distributes passive components and connectors, sells network hardware, and provides installation and maintenance services on networking equipment. "Adding the service part of their business is helping them take margins higher," says Damron.
The five electronics distributors on our table are all trading for no more than ten times their estimated 2001 earnings and at least 27% below their 52-week highs.
Electronics Distributors Stocks
Company Price Change From 52-Week High 2001 Estimated P/E Projected EPS Growth* Market Value ($mil)
Arrow Electronics (nyse: ARW - news - people) $25.10 -45% 6 14% $2,465
Avnet (nyse: AVT - news - people) 24.45 -40 8 14 2,258
Bell Microproducts (nasdaq: BELM - news - people) 11.94 -65 9 25 186
Pioneer-Standard (nasdaq: PIOS - news - people) 11.88 -27 7 15 375
Kent Electronics (nyse: KNT - news - people) 15.00 -57 10 18 430
Prices as of March 20. *Annualized; projected over next three to five years. Sources: FT Interactive Data and Thomson Financial/IBES via FactSet Research Systems
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Fast-Facts
WKN 897826 Sektor Technologie
Ticker SSK Branche Computer-Hardware
Währung EUR Land USA
Kennzahlen/Schätzungen Marktkap.: 1.747 Mio. EUR
Fund. Kennzahlen 2000 2001 2002
Ergebnis/Aktie (in EUR) 1,46 0,14 0,73
KGV 21,21 166,51 32,02
Cash-Flow/Aktie (in EUR) 0,00 0,00 0,00
KCV - - -
Dividende/Aktie (in EUR) - - -
Dividendenrendite (in %) 0,00 0,00 0,00
Tech. Kennzahlen 30 Tage 250 Tage
Beta 1,04 0,97
Korrelation 0,44 0,39
Volatilität (in %) 113,07 127,83
ich kaufe mir diesen computerausrüster aber erst nachdem der trend bestätigt wird!!
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Like most chip companies, consumer electronics semiconductor provider Zoran has received some hits lately because of slowing PC demand. After the closing bell on January 18, the company did meet its revised guidance for the fourth quarter but then had to ratchet down analysts' expectations again for the first quarter. Adding to that disappointment, Zoran said that it expects revenues to decrease sequentially by approximately 5 to 7 percent in the first quarter. The company's stock fell 19 percent the day after the news was announced.
But a few weeks later, the company announced a stock repurchase program of up to $10 million during a 12-month period ending January 29, 2002, sending a message to long-term investors that the company believes the stock is attractive at current levels. Despite the slowdown in PC sales, what intrigues us the fact that Zoran is the market-share leader in supplying chips for DVD players, a hot market indeed. The number of DVD players increased 65 percent during the past year, according to Mr. Alger. "The DVD market will continue to grow during the next three to four years at similar clips because of the low U.S. penetration and an increase in adoption on a global basis," he adds.
Zoran is also increasing its market share in another quickly growing consumer electronics market: digital cameras. The company's first-quarter earnings will suffer from delays in digital camera sales resulting from the inability of Zoran's customers to produce a product suitable for delivery. But Zoran recently announced a new design for camera manufacturers, as well as an alliance with flash memory storage product provider SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK) to accelerate the development of more sophisticated digital cameras and flash memory cards.
And investors have rewarded the prospects of Zoran's markets, bidding up the company's stock 2 percent year to date. With a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of only 22, compared with a five-year average of 101, Zoran's stock is a more than reasonable buy.
http://investor.redherring.com/...&channel=20000002&doc_id=1860018586
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