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Empowering purchasing by providing market information, analysis and trends
Weekend Review March 31, April 1
Analysts expect delay in New Caledonia?s two nickel projects - "Business analysts say they expect major delays in the development in New Caledonia?s two nickel projects which are among the largest in the world." - article here
Miners rush to ride nickel's price wave - "NICKEL prices rebounded last week, and companies were losing no time trying to get on the wave. Focus Minerals (FML) started drilling its Nepean project near Coolgardie and said it hoped to get mining within 12 months. The area includes the old Nepean mine which, between 1970 and 1987, produced 32,303 tonnes of nickel at an average grade of 2.99 per cent." - article here
Chance of BHP bid for LionOre - "THERE could be room for a rival bidder for LionOre after the Canadian nickel miner revealed Xstrata's "lock-up" of 19.5 per cent of shares as part of its $US4 billion ($5 billion) friendly offer would evaporate if a higher bid were lodged." - article here
Vale's Canada Nickel Output May Be Reduced by Strike - "Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's biggest nickel producer, said technical and office workers at its Sudbury operations in Canada began a strike, which a union official estimated may cut output 25 percent amid record prices." - (article here) CVRD Sudbury office workers to strike as talks fail - "Unionized office and technical staff at CVRD-Inco's Sudbury nickel-mining operations are on strike after last-minute contract talks broke off late on Saturday, the union said, raising the threat of disruptions at the key nickel hub." - (article here)
News Bite - "The net profit of Norilsk Nickel according to Russian Accounting Standards grew 110% in 2006, year-on-year, to 121.2 billion rubles ($4.7 billion), the company said Friday. In the fourth quarter, the world's largest nickel producer's net profit also grew 110% on the third quarter, to 80.5 billion rubles ($3.1 billion)."
News Bite - "Metals X (MLX) put out a revised resource estimate for its Wingellina nickel deposit in Western Australia. It has more than 2 million tonnes of contained nickel which makes it the 16th-largest undeveloped nickel project in the world. Wingellina is about as far as you get from anywhere and with no infrastructure, so it is a long-term project. Plus, the deposit is limonite, which means it needs complex laterite-style processing. There are also 15,000 tonnes of contained cobalt at Wingellina." and 3/20 "Australia's Metals X Ltd. MLX.AX, which is developing the rich Wingellina nickel deposit, said China's top nickel producer, Jinchuan Group Ltd., would pay A$32.8 million ($26.2 million) for a 13 percent stake in the company. As part of the deal, Jinchuan would take a board seat and provide technical and construction assistance as required by Metals X to help develop its Central Musgrave Project in the Western Australian outback, the company said." - courtesy The Australian and Reuters
Week in Review - It was interesting to note that it was not the normal crowd spreading rumors of potential market price declines this week. Usually that is reserved for the more pessimistic of the analysts. But this week it was some major nickel producers singing the blues, including Jinchuan, Norilsk, and Xstrata. Please remember the following figures are not official. They are indications and used for reference only. Last week, Friday saw trading end at $19.14/lb, while this week it ended at $20.25/lb. Monday opened at $19.26/lb, saw a high for the day of $19.91/lb, a low of $18.74/lb, and ended the days trading at $19.46/lb. Tuesday opened at $19.47/lb, hit a high of $19.72/lb, a low of $19.18/lb, and ended at $19.53/lb. Wednesday opened at $19.55/lb, saw a high of $20.05/lb, a low of $19.38/lb, and ended at $19.73/lb. Thursday was the slowest day in volume, with the market opening at $19.69/lb, trading as high as $20.11/lb, as low as $19.52/lb, and ending at $19.89/lb. Friday opened at $19.88/lb, saw trading as high as $20.32/lb, a low of $19.73/lb, and ended the weeks trading at $20.25/lb. For the week, nickel ended 5.8% higher, +7.9% for the month, and +34.6% for the year. One year ago today, nickel was $6.89/lb and 5 years ago, it was at $3.51/lb. In the first quarter of 2007, we saw nickel trade as low as $13.64/lb on Jan 10th, to a high of $22.00/lb, on March 16th.
Stainless steel has seen numerous increases during the quarter, and the most recent increases have been incredibly depressing. What the next quarter will bring has yet to be determined. Stay tuned and we will keep you informed.
Saturday - The contract CVRD Inco and Local 2020 of the United Steelworkers expires at midnight tonight - Local 2020's 330 CVRD Inco members include surveyors, ventilation technicians, geologists, environmental analysts, purchasing, payroll, water treatments operators and office administration.(this is CVRD's first big test in negotiating with its Canadian workers since purchasing Inco. Xstrata has successfully reached two major agreements, one with Local 2020 and the other with CAW Local 598, in the last two months)
Analysis-New projects, mergers to puncture nickel's rally -"Soaring nickel prices have helped spark a rash of multi-billion dollar corporate takeovers and new projects in mining, though few, if any, believe such lofty metal prices will last." - article here
Newmont mulls Indonesia future if exec found guilty - "Gold miner Newmont Mining Corp. might reconsider its investments in Indonesia if one of its executives is found guilty of dumping toxic waste there, the company said on Friday." - article here
Mines hit by a lost generation of miners - "They are calling them the lost generation, the men and women who simply aren't around to staff the world's booming mining industry." - article here
The Jeweled Nickel - (quote from article) ""The government is definitely resolved to acquire a portion of Norilsk Nickel stocks, and if ALROSA doesn't become the buyer, it will be some other state company," said a source close to Norilsk Nickel, specifying the parties last met in late past summer to discuss legal and economic aspects of the deal." - (article here) Ferrous Metallurgy 2000-2004 - "The four years of Vladimir Putin's presidency were very favorable for the Russian metallurgy industry. Growth began in earnest in 2001, when a surge of investments was recorded. Steel production increased 1.9% to 59.9 million tons in 2002, and production of rolled metal increased 3.8% to 48.5 million tons." - (article here)
Russian juice ad pokes fun at billionaire's detention in France - "He is one of Russia's wealthiest men and he gained notoriety over the New Year holiday when French police detained him briefly as part of a probe into an alleged high class prostitution ring." - (article here)
Hunting for the lion's share of the nickel jungle - "The challenge Although Xstrata Nickel is just seven months old, CEO Ian Pearce wanted to expand quickly The call An all-cash deal for LionOre gives the miner a foothold in 'the global nickel play'" - article here
China Nickel Statistics for February 2007 - Nickel Exports total - 1,831 tonnes (Destination - South Korea 1,578, Singapore 102) Nickel Imports total - Refined Nickel - 12,087 tonnes (Origin - Canada 4,944, Australia 6,594, Russia 1,766) Nickel Ore - 573,516 tonnes (Origin - Indonesia 477,882, Philippines 46,527, New Caledonia 39,551) (source - Star Futures)
Non metal related - Wonders of the Chinese Landscape - beautiful pictures here Midwest US thunderstorm photo's here
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Friday, March 30
Today's official LME nickel closing - cash - $20.59/lb - 3 month buyer - $19.87/lb (31.6% higher than 1/1/2007). Hey, didn't we tell you yesterday nothing much would happen today unless some big news surfaced? Does China's own state owned Antaike forecasting "In view of the strong demand of nickel for stainless steel production, the official expects domestic nickel prices to continue its upward trend in 2007, growing say about 12%" qualify as big news? Apparently those who trade nickel thought so, with an otherwise docile morning turning into an interesting and active afternoon. Official prices, established around 11:30 am London time, actually show a drop from yesterday. But with half a days trading left, nickel rose and ended the day, week, and month at $20.32/lb ($44,800/tonne). (Comtex Finance - here) Have a safe and restful weekend!
And you thought the market was the only bull in town!! (all taken from this site and pay special attention to dates) - (#1 Blame speculators) 10/11/2004 Anton Berlin, Norilsk Nickel's head of market analysis and development, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview today that the supply/demand balance of worldwide nickel is nearing a balance and that the high price of nickel is unjustified and due to speculative activity. (comment - and the reaction to this? - 10/13/2004 The Globe and Mail is reporting today's drop in nickel is its worst single day drop since January 1988.) (#2 Blame LME) 8/21/06 "From China's largest producer of nickel website - the Jinchuan Group - 8/18 - Mr Li Yongjun, president and chairman of the Board is quoted "LME is no longer a place for fair dealing of metals but a paradise of speculations". He warned that if the LME did not take measures to strengthen management of the market, the recent "irrational" surging in nickel prices would "impair development of downstream sectors" and "bring ill effects to the LME and speculators". (#3 Blame the consumer) 8/18/06 - Norilsk Nickel Deputy General Director Victor Sprogis released an e-mail statement today stating ?Today's market volatility is due to the fact that some consumers this year cut the volumes they buy under long-term contracts and so increased their spot market purchases. We hope they'll draw lessons from it in 2007.''(comment - and the reaction to this double team? On the day Jinchuan/Norilsk posted/stated this, the price of nickel was $12.69/lb. One week later it was $13.34/lb) (substitution concerns) 4/6/2004 WMC Resources CEO Andrew Michelmore advised investors at the company's annual meeting today, that the market could not sustain nickel prices above $6/lb for much longer, or the high costs could have a long term negative impact on the industry. He also advised he would like to see prices stay in the $4 to $6 range. (to be fair to Mr Michelmore, this was an honest mistake, with numerous others, and the media, and us, saying much the same thing) (and finally - no more concerns at all) 12/6/2004 - Two months ago on October 5th, the International Nickel Study Group forecast the worldwide nickel deficit of 10M tons seen this year, would disappear in 2005 with a balanced market. Since then (nickel) prices have fallen from $7.16/lb (the day of the announcement) by about 20%." (comment - now you know why we gave up forecasting - in print!)
Indonesia court delays verdict on Newmont - "An Indonesian court decision in a high-profile pollution trial involving the Indonesian unit of Newmont Mining Corp and its American chief has been postponed by two weeks, the judge trying the case said on Friday." - article here
China's nickel output to rise up to 200,000 mt in 2007: Antaike - "Beijing's Antaike forecast China's nickel output at 190,000-200,000 mt in 2007, up from the around 140,000 mt produced in 2006, an official from the state nonferrous metals information division said to Platts." - article here
(translated, so hard to understand, but worth trying) Stainless Steel industry- how to deal with high nickel prices? - "In the recently held the "2007 International Symposium on Chinese markets and raw materials". Participants in the negotiations is the largest raw material issues." - translated article here
News Bites- 3/30 investment report by Netease for Chinese non-ferrous metal industry - (translated, therefore not per batum) "Currently, very strong demand for nickel from stainless steel industry, particularly stainless steel output is seeing substantial increase... we think that after experiencing a short-term adjustment, prices will return to normal levels of nickel, and nickel prices will remain high thru 07." 3/30 Sohu Securities - "Rapid growth in stainless steel output of China's future will inevitably face the chronic shortage of nickel supply situation."
News Bite - Chinese media per Hexun - according to sources, Korean Public Procurement Service (PPS) reportedly purchased 100 tons of nickel, half from Glencore, and the other half from Eramet.
Indications at 7:50 am CST show nickel was selling up by about $.07/lb . Market is shrugging off reports from Norilsk that the supply of nickel may exceed worldwide demand, possibly as early as this year. Something to consider over the weekend. Over the last few years of following the nickel market daily, we have noticed that nickel producers, who might be accused of being overly optimistic to shareholders, have been a lot more correct on their forecasts of nickel pricing, than have been the analyst's. A lot closer! In the last few weeks, Jinchuan, Xstrata, and now Norilsk, have all dropped hints of possible price declines in the near future. While we, like many of the analyst's, don't see the new supply necessary, it is worth mentioning. Although Jinchuan and Norilsk have been known to cry wolf before, and Xstrata just might have a reason for wanting the market to "think" prices will fall, they represent some of the largest nickel producers in the world, and their opinions should not be ignored. (Bloomberg - here) (AFX News - here)
Fasteners - US stainless steel importers were notified yesterday by Taiwan fastener manufacturers that stainless steel mills from Taiwan, Japan and Korea have raised prices of 304 stainless steel wire and rod by 13-17%, and 316 stainless by 13-18% for April. This is the largest monthly increase since spring of last year, and users can expect to see future price increases on their stainless steel fasteners.
TD Bank Financial Group Weekly Commodities Price Report - pdf here
New projects, mergers to puncture nickel's rally - "Soaring nickel prices have helped spark a rash of multi-billion dollar corporate takeovers and new projects in mining, though few, if any, believe such lofty metal prices will last." - article here
Chinese Steel Producers Struggle With High Raw Material Prices - "Russian, Brazilian and Indian steel producers are the most profitable, while Chinese producers struggle with high raw material prices. This is according to Integer Research's latest report that examines the world's leading 55 steel producers, the 2007 Steel Financial Insight." - article here
Nickel: Conference and rumours - "The third conference on nickel has been just completed. One will have little learned with the liking interventions from them but the corridors, them, bruissé rumours." - translated article here
The New Caledonian Goro Nickel company has told an international nickel conference in Noumea this week that its production facilities will be in full operation by 2011. - more here
News Bite - US Commerce Department releases figures showing nickel scrap exports from US were up 21% in December 2006.
Canadian nickel independents FNX Mining, Dynatec now takeover targets - "Prudential Equity asserts that Xstrata?s bid for Vancouver?s LionOre may mean that Canadian nickel independents FNX Mining and Dynatec are also potential takeover targets." - article here
Yusco, Tang Eng raise stainless steel price - "Yusco, the largest stainless steel maker in Taiwan, announced to raise their stainless steel list prices for April by NT$18,000 to 19,000 per ton, which is the highest rise range in a month in recent years." - article here
Strike deadline looms for 330 Local 2020 employees - "There could be a strike at CVRD Inco's Greater Sudbury operations within 48 hours if a new deal isn't hammered out before the strike deadline at midnight Saturday." - article here
Mid-ranking commodities trader? Walk this way - "Headhunters confirm mid-ranking traders are getting harder to find. ?The shortage of staff is absolutely more critical than before because there?s been such expansion,? says Colleen Quilty, head of the commodities division at search firm Akamai Financial Markets. ?Most of the demand is at the intermediate level, for people with between five and seven years? experience.?" - article here
Sumitomo eyes $1-B Philippine nickel refinery project - "Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. said was doing a feasibility study with Taganito Mining Corp. on a nickel refinery in the southern Philippines that will require investment of more than $1 billion." - article here
Norilsk Says Nickel May Be in Surplus on New Chinese Supplies - "MMC Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of the metal, said the market may be in surplus this year on increasing ``unconventional'' supplies from China, easing near-record prices." - article here
3/29 - Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang tells news conference that Chinese Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan will be visiting Papua New Guinea and amongst other things on his agenda, he will visit the China Metallurgical Group's nickel mine. Mr Gang also reported that the Chinese government has conducted an investigation into accusations of labor law violations, and found the allegations "groundless". (see 1/26/07 for more info)
Today's beginning nickel inventory - plus 126 tons = 5,418 tonnes (36.32% - 1,968 tonnes cancelled warrants).
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Thursday, March 29
Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $20.66/lb - 3 month buyer - $19.89/lb (31.7% higher than 1/1/07). After 10 days of breaking news from all corners of the globe about nickel, the media was rather quiet today. The market was quiet early, but after positive economic data from the US was released, buyers got some renewed interest. With only one day left in the month and first trading quarter of 2007, some movement was due to funds cleaning up their accounts. At the end of the day, nickel ended at $19.89/lb ($43,850/tonne). Without major news surfacing overnight that might affect the supply/demand parameters, we expect the markets to remain quiet tomorrow. (Comtex Finance - here) (and we can not explain why the Kitco graph shows the market ending down - they use their own formula and not actual prices...all indicators we watch show market up for the day)
Chinese manganese metal prices surge; offers in wide range - "Chinese-origin 99.7% manganese metal offer prices have continued to rise, moving beyond $3,000/mt FOB China this week." - article here
M'sian mills turning to no-nickel stainless steel - "Malaysian stainless steel fabricators are considering switching to metal with zero-nickel content as record nickel prices are squeezing their cash flows, a senior industry official from the country said." - article here
Indications at 7:55 am CST show nickel selling up by $.10/lb . No breaking news out today that should influence the market in either direction. There are a few of us that still think the correction, now that it has gotten jump started, isn't over yet, with trading support levels still to be tested. (Bloomberg - here)
New Caledonia Eyes Cap On Raw Nickel Ore Exports - "The government of nickel-rich New Caledonia in the South Pacific is seeking to limit exports of raw nickel ore in the future to add value through processing and wants to get tougher on environmental regulation, New Caledonia's mining minister said Thursday." - article here
Mining companies show us the fast money - "Resources stocks were where the good money, or at least the fast money, was in the past quarter with new mining company listings the 13 best performers over the period." - article here
China to take down world markets - "We are looking right now at the following situation. China is about to drop the world markets in stemming their bubbles ? stocks and real estate and manufacturing. I notified PS subscribers that China is going to prick the world stock bubbles ? as the emerging manufacturing giant, just like the USA did in the 1929/30?s." - more here
Courtesy and copyright Dow Jones Newswire - "Trade buying, short-covering, and technical-related buying supports LME nickel prices, says a broker. Adds that strong stainless steel demand should help nickel resume its upward trend towards $50,000 a metric ton. Moreover, demand for white metal products, nickel hybrid batteries, and anticorrosive pipes remains strong and is supportive for nickel demand and prices, broker notes. LME nickel trades at $44,100/ton, up 1.6% from Wednesday, but down from it's recent record high of $48,500/ton."
Sumitomo Metal Mining, Taganito To Start Feasibility Study - "Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.TO) said Thursday it has agreed with Taganito Mining Corporation of the Philippines to begin a feasibility study on nickel refining operations in the country." - article here
Commodity Prices Stronger For Longer -National Australia Bank - "In what is still a common belief among many analysts, National Australia Bank Ltd. said Thursday that global prices of commodities should remain stronger for longer, with a supply response leading to modest declines in 2008." - article here
China News Bite - Gansu Province-based Jinchuan Nickel Group, China's largest nickel producer, has reduced its 2007 nickel export target to 3,000 tons due to pressure from the increased export tax put in place by state regulators, the company told Interfax yesterday.
Unmanned haul trucks two years off - "According to a report by Reuters, leading surface mining equipment manufacturer, Komatsu is set to commercialise its automated haul truck system in only one to two years time. The comments were attributed to Rod Schrader, vice president and general manager of Komatsu America?s mining division, who was speaking at the CRU World Copper Conference in Santiago, Chile on March 28." - more here
Xstrata gets Australian Federal Treasurer go-ahead for LionOre deal - "Diversified-miner Xstrata had received notice from Australia?s Federal Treasurer that it had approved Xstrata?s proposed acquisition of LionOre Mining, the group said on Thursday." - article here
Koniambo: Xstrata plays prudence - ?All is very well?, ensured Kevin Brown yesterday. The director of the Koniambo project even promised with the floor of world specialists in nickel brought together with the Meridian line the first ingot of ferronickel of the factory of North in 2010." - translated article here
Tropical cyclone Becky has weakened during the day as it is approaching New Caledonia. - more
CVRD Inco Sudbury office staff OK strike mandate - "Unionized office, clerical and technical staff at CVRD Inco's Sudbury nickel operations have voted to give their union a mandate to strike if the two sides are unable to reach a new labor contract." - article here
Mechel set to make ChMP unrivalled leader in the domestic stainless steel sector - "A program is scheduled at Chelyabinsk Iron & Steel Works to upgrade its production facilities, which will make the concern the unrivaled leader on the stainless steel market in Russia. We advise investors to devote attention to the shares of ChMP and Mechel, which controls it." - article here
Posco to increase 400 series price by $75/ton - "After raising the surcharge of 300 series stainless steel, South Korea Posco announced that the prices of 400 series stainless steel would be adding by 70,000 won/ton (US$75/ton) after April 5, 2007." - article here
US stainless imports reduce in first 2 months - "According to US Customs data, Mexico was the only country to sell its stainless products to US with an increased volume in February." - article here
Sumitomo Metal Mining Plans Philippine Nickel Project - "Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's largest nickel producer, agreed with Manila-based Taganito Mining Corp. to conduct a joint study on building a $1 billion nickel smelting plant in the Philippines." - article here
Today's beginning nickel inventory - minus 204 tons = 5,292 tonnes (38.21% - 2,022 tonnes cancelled warrants).
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Wednesday, March 28
Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $20.64/lb - 3 month buyer - $19.83/lb (+31% from 1/1/07 (corrected - per Frank). While tin took a beating, nickel stayed in positive territory today, ending the day at $19.66/lb ($43,350/tonne). (Contex Business - here) Wow! Would you take a look at all the new nickel production coming down the pike! BHP's Ravensthorpe in Australia - maybe spring 2008. CVRD's Brazil Onca Puma - maybe fall 2008. CVRD's New Caledonia Goro - maybe late 2008. CVRD's Brazil Vermelho project - maybe late 2008. Even Indonesia's PT Aneka Tambang is hoping to increase nickel production by 22M tonnes - by 2008. Of course it takes a new mine a couple of years to get up to full production levels. And let's not forget the upcoming supply disruption - when the world's largest nickel miner, Norilsk Nickel can't ship - in May/June there is a typical 4 week period Norilsk can't ship from Dudinka due to the spring floods on the Yangtze River. Those who are concerned about future nickel prices, sure have a point....or at least they will ....maybe in 2008.
Nickel rationing may be needed in 2008 - "Dwindling stockpiles of nickel and sustained strong demand from world stainless steelmakers could create a second year of alloying metal shortages and create the need for rationing of primary material next year to ensure supplies, according to the latest quarterly commodities review by investment bankers at Société Générale." - article here (we have been critical of this magazine in the past, as its readership is primarily purchasing agents (our customers). Their erroneous forecasts for the past few years have always leaned toward a collapse in nickel and stainless steel pricing. This sudden shift, with such a dire context, is extremely concerning)
Stainless Steel Bar from Spain: Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review - notice here
Xstrata Pledges Caution in Koniambo Nickel Project - "Swiss mining giant Xstrata said Wednesday it would move cautiously in developing a nickel producing operation in Koniambo, New Caledonia, site of one of the world's last remaining large-scale nickel deposits." - article here
Nickel-price 'super-cycle' likely - "Scotiabank's commodity price index bounced back strongly in February, after a sharp drop in January, to within 0.6 per cent of December's record high." - article here
China's steel products prices expected to move down in second half - "Steel product prices on the Chinese market may fall in the second half of 2007, industry insiders predicted in a conference recently." - article here
Haywood endorses LionOre Xstrata nickel merger but doubts competitive offer forthcoming - "Despite the speculation and hype surrounding Xstrata?s $4B bid for Toronto?s LionOre Mining International, Vancouver?s Haywood Securities asserts that LionOre shareholders not expect a competing offer." - article here
Glencore to Sell Xstrata's Nickel, Cobalt From April - "Glencore International AG, a Swiss commodity trader that made a $5.3 billion profit last year, will sell nickel for Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth-largest producer." - article here
Finnish stainless steel maker Outokumpu upbeat on 1Q earnings due strong demand - "Metals group Outokumpu Oyj said Wednesday its first-quarter profit could be higher than the record previous quarter because of "prevailing favorable market conditions." - article here
Impala, Anglo Pt in nickel bonanza - (quote from article) "John Meyer, an analyst at Numis Securities in London, said the company is considering lifting its 12-month average nickel price from its current level of $22,046/tonne. However, there are dangers in this. ?Nickel prices tend to be extremely volatile and, consequently, a sharp correction downwards is possible.? Nonetheless, prices may average at ?very high levels? versus historic prices, Meyer said." - article here
Watch the Canaccord Adams "Closing the Structural Supply Shortage: Mid-Tier and Emerging Nickel Producer Conference" conference online - here (must log in but free - speakers include FNX, Sherritt, Dynatec, Skye, First Nickel, Brilliant Mining, International Nickel Ventures, European Nickel ,Globestar Mining, Canadian Arrow, Canadian Royalties, Independent Nickel, Blackstone Ventures, Crowflight Minerals - watch it all - or just your favorite company)
FSA publishes review of the commodities market - "Growth in Commodity Investment: risks and challenges posed for commodity market participants" - pdf here
Chile's Codelco sees moly prices firm in 2007, output steady - "Chile's national copper company Codelco expects prices for molybdenum, the most important byproduct in its mines, to remain firm this year, the company's executive president Jose Pablo Arellano said Tuesday." - article here
Indications at 7:50 am CST show nickel selling up by $.49/lb . Typically, a positive inflow of nickel into LME warehouses has historically brought the price of nickel down during this bull run. But for the last two days, traders have appeared to shrug this off, and taken prices even higher. Why? Could it be many felt the price dropped too fast last week, and has allowed itself to fall below market fundamentals? Or are the traders dismissing recent inventory gains as temporary? Or are traders looking at the long term numbers and questioning the recent "forecasts" given? Or is it just another grasp? Whatever the reason, it appears the bulls have re-gained much of their confidence. Will it hold? Or will something happen to add fuel to the fire? Stay tuned. (Bloomberg - "Nickel Rises for Third Day as Stainless-Steel Production Grows" here)
Good golly, Ms Moly - "Like nickel and uranium, among others, molybdenum is up 1000% or so in the past five years. The metal, known in the trade and among specialist investors as "moly", and mostly used in steel alloying for hardening and corrosion resistance, is now in a $12bn a year market, but is it still worth a punt?" - article here
DJ Australia's Fox Restarts Underground Nickel & Copper Mine - "Australia's Fox Resources Ltd. Wednesday announced it has restarted underground mining of nickel and copper ore at its Radio Hill project in the Pilbara region in the far northwest." (article here)
Ambatovy Receives Key Malagasy Certification - press release here
Scotiabank Commodity Price Index - March 2007 - pdf here
Nickel price stops falling to give stainless price ways to soar - "Nickel price has rebounded on March 27 after a dip in last week." - article here
BHP tipped as rival bidder for LionOre - "XSTRATA chief executive Mick Davis has admitted his company could face competition in its $US4 billion ($4.96 billion) friendly offer for nickel miner LionOre, amid speculation BHP Billiton was a logical rival bidder." - (article here) - Analysts mixed on possibility of competing bid for LionOre - "Some investors and market watchers seem to be expecting a rival bid for LionOre Mining International Ltd. (LIM/TSX) after Xstrata Plc?s offer of $18.50 per share emerged on Monday." - (article here)
Vale's Agnelli Says Goro Mine on Time, Within Budget - "Cia. Vale do Rio Doce's Goro nickel mine on the French Pacific Island of New Caledonia likely will start output as expected in late 2008 and stay within its $3 billion budget, Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli said." - article here
Nickel Market to Remain Tight in 2007 - "Nickel for delivery in three months climbed $959, or 2.3%, to $43,159 a tonne in London yesterday, and has risen nearly 30% so far this year. The metal peaked at a record $48,500 on March 16, after gaining 161% in 2006. Currently, nickel is trading at $43,100 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), and analysts see further upside." - more here
(not nickel related) Zimbabwe ignores court and provokes mining firm - "African Consolidated Resources, which had its Marange diamond mine in Zimbabwe expropriated in January, said that country's government had ignored a high court ruling allowing staff to return to the site." - article here
Xstrata's takeover bid comes up short in shareholders' eyes - "The premium attached to Xstrata PLC's $4.6-billion takeover bid for nickel miner LionOre Mining International Ltd. is too slim and several institutional shareholders said they won't tender their shares to the all-cash takeover bid in hopes of wresting more money out of the friendly buyer." - (article here) - Aggressive Xstrata will carry on putting another nickel in - "Xstrata remains on the lookout for a new, " transforming" deal even after launching its latest takeover bid." - (article here)
DJ Xstrata To Decide On Koniambo Nickel Project Aug 2007 - "London-listed Xstrata PLC will conclude a review of its Koniambo nickel project in New Caledonia in August, an Xstrata official said Wednesday." - (article here) Xstrata's Koniambo Nickel Mine May Start in 2010 - "Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth- largest nickel producer, said its Koniambo nickel project in New Caledonia will probably begin production by the end of 2010, putting it at the latter end of its previous forecast." - (article here) Koniambo, Goro timetables - "Xstrata plc, the world`s fourth-largest nickel producer, said its Koniambo nickel project in New Caledonia is expected to begin production by the end of 2010, putting it at the latter end of its previous forecast, while Cia Vale do Rio Doce said its Goro nickel project, also on the Pacific island, is set to be completed in late 2008." - (more here)
Today's beginning nickel inventory - plus 126 tons = 5,496 tonnes (37.33% - 2,052 tonnes cancelled warrants).
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Den Nickelpreis heute schon gesehen? Fast 5 % im Plus. CROWFLIGHT als angehender Produzent MUSS dabei steigen. "kurze einbrüche wie gestern" sind bei derartigen Nickelpreisen und bei angehenden Produzenten wie CROW nahezu PFLICHTEINSTIEGE ! bzw. AUFSTOCKPREISE !
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Ich hoffe nur das es nicht allzu schnell nach oben geht sondern der stetige Trend intakt bleibt denn Übertreibungsphasen werden dann gering gehalten.
Bis dann
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Ich denke schon, dass wir hier bald über 1EUR stehen. Wie schon mal in einem vorherigen Posting von mir: Wwenn 100% + erreicht sind, erst dann wissen viele, dass die Aktie weitersteigen wird und steigen ein. Im 2. Hhalbjahr 2007 ist Produktionsbeginn, die Infrastruktur ist hervorragend, entsprechende Investoren haben sich bereits positioniert und eingekauft. Ressourcen und Reserven sind massenweise vorhanden und sollen in 2008 verdoppelt werden. D.h., dass wir hier erst gaaaaaaaanz am Anfang der Hausse sind!!!
Gruss
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Irgendwann muss die "kleine Krähe" auch mal verschnaufen.
Es genügt auch mal nur von Ast zu Ast hupfen.
Lg wawa
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Einfacher geht es kaum noch!!
Selbst wenn der Nickelkurs um 50 % nachgeben sollte - dann wäre die Marktkapitalisierung immer noch nur 1,5 des JAhrescahsflow.
Bitte zeigt mir andere Aktien mit ähnlicher Begründung, die ein ebensolches Risiko-Chanceverhältnis haben wie CROWFLIGHT. Bitte, ich kaufe sofort.
Durch den Kursanstieg ist Crowflight bereits meine stärkste position, werde aber jede Kursschäche mehr als minus 10% zur sofortigen Kursaufstockung nutzen. Solche chancen gibt es nicht alle tage wie aktuell bei Crowflight.
Harte Landung wird es hier nicht geben. Hart ist nur das zusehen, wenn man nicht dabei ist, bei einer solchen Gelegenheit ;0)
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Frohe Ostern an alle Crowflight-Fans, bis nächste Woche
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Bin zu 100% überzeugt davon, dass wir sehr bald über 1EUR stehen werden. Aber erst dann werden noch mehr Investoren auf den Zug aufspringen weil das noch nicht einmal ansatzweise der Startschuß einer langfristigen Hausse sein wird.
Im 2. Halbjahr 2007 soll nach aller Voraussicht nach die Produktion beginnen und in 2008 durch weitere Explorationen die Ressourcen mehr als verdoppelt werden.
So what???
Einsteigen ist angesagt!!!
Gruss
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denk aber mal, dass es hier erst richtig losgeht wenn die noch fehlende Genehmigung da ist, die ja in den nächsten Wochen kommen soll.
Wenn diese vorliegt, steht der Produktion nichts mehr im Weg und der Kurs wird deutlich in Richtung Norden gehen... Denk mal, dass es dann erst über 1? geht....
oder was denkt ihr so??
