Friday, October 11, 2013
This Fuel Cell Stock is Leading the Charge ... and Should Be (BLDP, FCEL, PLUG)
Had shares of its peers and competitors performed as well, it may not even be worth bringing up. But, Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) shares have done significantly better than FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL) and Ballard Power Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDP) since the end of March. And, PLUG has performed considerably better than FCEL and BLDP have since mid-August. This is more than "just a little volatility." This is a leader breaking away from the pack after a very long lull. Thing is, there's plenty more room for Plug Power to keep running.
First and foremost, all three of these stocks - along with most of the fuel cell industry's names - have performed much better over the past several months than they had during the prior several years. Plug Power Inc. shares have gained more than 400% since their February plunge, after losing (and this isn't a misprint) nearly 100% of their value following the 2004 peak. Ballard Power Systems Inc. shares have more than doubled since December of last year following an 86% decline from their 2008 high. FuelCell Energy Inc. shares gave up about 90% of their value between the late-2007 high of $13.14 and their late-2011 low of $0.80, but after drawing a line in the sand there (and testing it two more times in the meantime), have hammered out a 53% advance ... and that's factoring in 25% pullback since May's highs. And, BLDP, FCEL, and PLUG all three seem to have shrugged off their old downtrends and formed new bullish channels.
What's the deal? Given the participation rate, it looks as if the fuel cell industry is finally on the rebound, now that demand has actually caught up with investor expectations. It was bound to happen sometime. All that being said, Plug Power appears to be the top pick for newcomers.
Yes, from a technical perspective PLUG looks and feels overbought, and maybe it is... a little. But, it's a buy-on-the-dip scenario here. The stock has not only crossed above all of its key moving average lines, but all the moving averages have made bullish crosses of one another, and all of them are pointed higher too. In other words, the stock's got bullish momentum in multiple timeframes. That many investors (and kinds of investors) can't be wrong
It's the fundamental side of the stock, however, that's not only driving all this interest, but driving the actual buying of the stock.
Although it may not have been reflected in the stock's price, 2011 was actually a decent year for pre-profit Plug Power Inc. Sales cranked up from 2010's $19.5 million to $27.6 million. There was something of a lull in 2012, when the company's top line only reached $26.2 million, and investors began to fear the worst again...
... until something curious started to happen a couple of quarters ago. Since Q3 of 2012, we've seen three straight quarters of consecutive sales growth. And, the pace of revenue puts the company on track to do $31.3 million in sales this year, which would be its best year ever. The pros are looking for an incredible $60 million in revenue for 2014, which would nearly double this year's sales. Lofty? Yes, though not out of the realm of possibility. Even if PLUG "only" improves this year's revenue by 50% in 2014, though, that would still be a huge victory.
Oh, and the lofty growth outlook isn't an outrageous pie-in-the-sky, hope-and-dream-for-the-best kind of outlook either. The company has been piecing together new deals and expanding old relationships to put up some very impressive numbers in the very foreseeable future.
With all of that being said, there's another less tangible reason newcomers to the fuel cell party may want to choose Plug Power over a name like FuelCell Energy Inc. or Ballard Power Systems Inc. - PLUG has become noticeably more active on the publicity front, which tends to happen when a company know it's got plenty to tout - and will have plenty to tout - in its near future. Case in point? It's hosting an information conference call tomorrow, and it's got nothing to do with earnings (which are due sometime early next month). The company is describing the topic as a general business update, but here in the shadow of last month's public offering that raised $10 million, it's pretty clear the company has something big going on that it needed funds for.
The best part of all? As bullish as PLUG has been of late, the market has yet to even really notice and start creating a buzz around this and other natural gas stocks. Once the same euphoria from about three or four years ago materializes again, that's when the heat could really get turned up on these stocks.
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