Financial forecast in JPLs first report
JPLs first report.
Source: JPLs first report.
If we use 2021 actual revenue and a projected growth rate of 63% in the same JPL report, LKNCY would generate a revenue of $2,037.3 million in 2022. As of April 1, 2022, LKNCY's market capitalization was $2.3 billion, implying a P/S ratio of 2.0x for 2021 and 1.3x for 2022. All of its industry peers trade at a significantly higher P/S multiple (see table below).
Price/Sales Multiple
Companies
Market Cap
Price/Sales
Starbucks (SBUX)
$105 billion
3.6x 2021 Sales
3.2x 2022 Sales
Dutch Bros (BROS)
$9 billion
18.9x 2021 Sales
13.2x 2022 Sales
Tim Hortons China (SLCR)
$2 billion
17.9x 2021 Sales
7.6x 2022 Sales
Luckin Coffee Inc (OTCPK:LKNCY)
$2 billion
2.0x 2021 Sales
1.3x 2022 Sales
Notes: The trading multiples are as of April 2, 2022 except SLCR which is calculated based on the info of its recent SEC filing.
On per store basis, LKNCY is also undervalued by a very wide margin compared to its publicly traded comparables. It is worth mentioning that the store count of LKNCY has now surpassed SBUX which has over 5,500 stores in China, but valuation per LKNCY store is only one sixth of a SBUX store.