SATCON ein neuer stern

ich blicke hier auch nicht mehr durch. die aktie hat sich seit dem schwarzen tag im februar nicht mehr erholt.
einzigste erklärung aus meiner sicht ist der wertverlust des dollars gegenüber dem euro. aber sonst???  

bei 1,95 mache ich Stopp -Sell !! Und danach nie wieder in den erneuerbaren Energie-Sektor in Nordamerika !!

 

Vom einstigen Überflieger in meinem Portfolio zum Sorgenkind...es ist eigentlich schon ein wenig lächerlich, wie sehr diese Aktie gefallen ist, nur wegen ein paar enttäuschter Erwartungen.

Es war abzusehen, dass die Aktie noch mehr an Boden verliert, vor allem mit dem schlechten Ausblick hinsichtlich der Ergebnisse des zweiten Quartals. Bis zu den Q3 Ergebnissen wird sich wohl wenig am schlechten Kurs tun, es  sei denn, es wird außerplanmäßig nochmal ein Mega-Auftrag an Lang gezogen. 

Wer schnelle Kursgewinne sucht, sollte sich womöglich nach einer anderen Aktie umschauen. Bleibt abzuwarten, inwiefern Satcon es schafft durch die Kostensenkung (die sich anscheinend auch negativ auf die Q2 Ergebnisse auswirken wird) seine Margen bis Ende des Jahres zu steigern bzw. auf die 30% zu kommen, die angestrebt wurden. Der Gesamtmarkt wird 2011 wohl wieder wachsen, weniger in Europa, mehr in Asien. Die neue Strategieausrichtung sollte davon hoffentlich profitieren. Schau mer mal...

 

schon wieder 10% miese in den USA, warum??

meint ihr die aktie erholt sich wieder und jetzt ist die chance zum nachkaufen? oder ist die kohle weg...  

Die Zahlen von Satcon werden auch wieder besser.Die nächste Solarrealley kommt bestimmt und dann gehts hier auch wieder zügig nach Norden.Jetzt und  in den nächsten Wochen werden sich hier ausgezeichnete Einkaufchancen ergeben.Hinzu kommt dass der euro weit über seiner Kaufkrauft gegenüber zum dollar notiert.Dieses ist um die 1,20-1,30 rum in etwa...Ich gehe davon aus,dass hier also mittelfristige Sicht auch Wechselkursgewinne zu erzielen sind.Die Fed wird wohk im Herbst die Zinsen anheben und spätestens dann düfte der dollar auch wieder stärker werden... Wenn man natürlich schon voll investiert ist und auf 20-30% Miesen hockt ist dies natürlich sehr ärgerlich.Kann den Frust sehr gut verstehen.Ich selber war bei dem Wert schon 200% im Plus und mittlerweile sind es "nur" noch 50%.Ich bin aber aber von der Firma überzeugt und langfristiger Anleger.Ich werde versuchen nochmal günstig einzukaufen.Obwohl Ich auch erstmal davon ausgehe dass hier Kurstechnisch nach oben hin erstmal der Deckel drauf ist.Aber unsere shorties werden auch irgendwann mal wieder covern... Das wird schon,aber wir brauchen einen langen Atem ..leider :)

 

....so langsam ist mal gut mit dem Absturz der Aktie. Ich war (wie Camindo) auch schon gut im Plus, immer noch knapp, aber langsam habe ich die Faxen mit den Amis dicke....Auf der ganzen Welt laufen die Indizes heiss und eine Firma, die sehr gut aufgestellt ist, einen guten Verlauf im Umsatz und minimieren von Verlusten hat, wird hier ständig geprügelt. Das sieht mir langsam nach niederknüppeln für einen anderen aus (ich hasse Gerüchte ohne Quelle), aber meint Ihr das nicht auch? Es könnte doch ein anderer Player an einem günstigen Preis interessiert sein. Ich meine, die Firma wird ja immer günstiger, und laufen tut sie immer besser.
Wahrscheinlich sollte ich noch in Arcandor investieren, da weiß ich, dass es besch...läuft, aber wie gesagt, da weiß ich es. Hier werden die Investoren fallen gelassen....
Wäre dankbar für Eure Meinung.  

Power-One was the PV inverter market's largest share gainer in 2010, moving up to second in the global rankings, according to IMS Research's latest report on the inverter market.

In addition, for the first time, all of the top 10 suppliers to the market in 2010 were European - largely due to the explosive market growth in key European markets that these suppliers enjoyed. The top five gainers in market share in 2010 were Power-One, Siemens, Advanced Energy, Sungrow and Danfoss.

IMS Research's report also found that the global PV inverter market grew 140% in 2010, with core European markets Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic and France serving as the main drivers. However, some suppliers performed significantly better than others.

"During 2010, exceptional demand meant that component shortages blighted the industry, and lead times for many suppliers extended up to 30 weeks," says PV market analyst Tom Haddon. "Suppliers that were able to source components benefited - with Power-One being a prime example."

"Growth of the small three-phase inverter market for units rated between 10 kW and 20 kW helped suppliers such as Danfoss Solar Inverters, Refu Elektronik and Siemens gain considerable share and move up the rankings," Haddon adds.

High growth is forecast for the North American market this year, which may benefit domestic suppliers such as Satcon and Advanced Energy, which already performed very well in 2010 and were the highest ranked non-European supplier and biggest ranking gainer, respectively. Advanced Energy was the third largest market share gainer last year, largely due to its earlier acquisition of rival PV Powered, IMS Research says.

This year presents very different opportunities and challenges for suppliers as the industry grapples with excess inventory due to oversupply in 2010 and a shifting balance in power toward Asia and North America.

"During 2010, the PV inverter market was very European-centric, with over 80 percent of shipments destined for [Europe]," says Haddon. "However, with faster growth now forecast in non-European emerging markets such as the U.S., China and India, opportunities for European-focused suppliers to gain share may be limited."  

11:05 28.04.11

Das Solarunternehmen Satcon Technology (Profil) hat im ersten Quartal 2011 eine Umsatzsteigerung von 321% erzielt. Der Umsatz erhöhte sich damit von $ 14,7 Mio. im Vorjahresquartal auf $ 62 Mio. Die Bruttomarge betrug 24% (Vorjahr: 14%). Damit konnte das Unternehmen den operativen Verlust von $ 7,1 Mio. in Q1/2010 auf jetzt $ 1,5 Mio. zurückschrauben.

"Wir sehen weiterhin eine hohe Nachfrage unserer PV-Lösungen in Nordamerika und Asien. Für das zweite Quartal erwarten wir dort weiterhin starke Märkte und glauben, dass Italien und Deutschland ihre langfristige EE-Strategie definieren. Wir erwarten einen Q2-Umsatz zwischen $ 50 und $ 60 Mio.", sagte Steve Rhoades, Präsident und CEO von Satcon.  

Gute Nachrichten und die Aktie fällt  

Ein Rückfall per Tages- und Wochenschluss unter 2,80 $ würde erst ein größeres Verkaufsignal bringen.

Bisjezt $2,90 gesetzt  

werden? Hat einer eine Buy/Sell - List? Oder Link dahin?

Danke.  

Tja, so kanns gehn. Wäre ich nicht so euphorisch gewesen und hätte ich schon nach einer Woche wieder verkauft, hätte ich ein schönes Plus mit nach Hause nehmen können. Aber man will halt immer noch mehr und noch mehr. Es wird mir ein Lehre sein, bin ja noch jung.

Trotzdem verstehe ich die Leute echt nicht mehr...

 

www.pv-tech.org/news/...lower_than_expected_customers_push_out_delive

 

Power inverters are in a great position in the changing electric generation landscape. Wind and solar plants need them to convert DC power to AC power, making them the lynchpin between power plants and the grid. But sometimes relying on others can come back and bite you in the end.

Right now the uncertainty in European solar subsidies is causing a slowdown in solar installations, particularly in Italy. Until large utility markets like the U.S. pick up the pace, inverter manufacturers like Satcon Technology (Nasdaq: SATC  ) and Power-One (Nasdaq: PWER  ) are caught in the middle. They have fast growing businesses, but investors don't know exactly how fast and how profitable they will be quarter to quarter.

That uncertainty causes disappointment -- even when a company reports that revenue jumped 321% from last year, as Satcon did yesterday. Sales of $62.0 million fell below the $62.8 million analysts had expected, and second-quarter expectations didn't help anyone feel better. Uncertainty in Italy has the company seeing revenues between $50 million and $60 million, well below analyst estimates of $73.3 million.

So with the bad news out of the way, where do we go from here? Management thinks sales and margins will pick up as we reach the third and fourth quarters, as solar panels start to be installed in North America. We might be able to read the tea leaves when solar powerhouses First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR  ) and SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA  ) report because both have large development backlogs in the U.S. If they're seeing panel sales move from Europe to the U.S., that could be seen as a positive for Satcon, Power-One, and inverter competitor American Superconductor (Nasdaq: AMSC  ) .

By the looks of it, the next quarter will be tough for the entire solar industry. As a result, inverter manufacturers are seeing some uncertainty.  

Apr. 28 2011 - 9:44 pm


Solar stocks posted widespread gains in the late trading after SunPower announced a deal to sell up to a 60% stake to the French energy giant Total.

As my colleague Todd Woody noted earlier, Total agreed to pay a fat 49% premium for the stake. That?s triggered a wave of speculative fever across the sector, as investors try to guess what other solar companies might get caught up in any potential consolidation phase in the solar sector.  

http://www.ariva.de/news/video/...dd4d161ae62d8aaeb84fa495e99f4be_DAF  

IMS Research: Nordamerikanischer Photovoltaik-Markt wird 2011 stark wachsen

Der nordamerikanische Markt wird laut IMS Research 2011 voraussichtlich stark wachsen. Das könnte nordamerikanische Wechselrichter-Anbietern wie Satcon und Advanced Energy zu Gute kommen, die bereits 2010 sehr erfolgreich waren. Die beiden besten nicht-europäischen Wechselrichter-Hersteller waren zugleich die größten Aufsteiger. Advanced Energy kam letztes Jahr auf Rang drei, hauptsächlich durch die Übernahme seines Konkurrenten PV Powered.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-extern/20082609.htm


mc

Alle Welt setzt mehr und mehr auf erneuerbare Energien und troztdem kommen die dazugehörigen Aktien nicht voran. Ganz im Gegenteil, die letzten Monate waren stark rückläufig. Auch der breitgestreute ETF - Lyxor New Energy läuft eher nach unten statt hinauf.
Wann begreift die Börse endlich die große, wachsende Chance?  

...guter Start, misserabler Schluss.

 

die bewegungen von kurs scheint mir dass ein paar shortis auf SATCON auf tagesbasis handeln. es wird pakete gekauft, und mit ein paar prozent gewinn wiederverkauft. ich denke dass investoren mit grosseren kaliber (Fonds) sich momentan von SATCON zurueckhalten.  

Warum glauben die Amerikaner nicht an Satcon? Heute wieder das gleiche Bild. Bis in den späten Nachmittag relativ gut unterwegs, dann öffnet drüben der Handel und schwupps, gehts nach unten.

 

...langsam tuts weh!

Aber ich halte und hoffe auf bessere Zeiten. Was macht ihr?

 

mir tuts auch weh.. ;) aber ich bleibe drin, bin bei 2,95 eingestiegen und will jetzt nicht mit viel verlust aussteigen.

weiss einer warum die aktie immer verliert wenn neue gute nachrichten kommen???  

Ich bin ja noch nicht lange dabei, habe mir die Frage aber auch schon öfters gestellt. Auch warum die Aktie nicht vom Solar-Hype profitiert hat.

 

SATC is overvalued compared to its Price of $2.80 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Sell.

Capital Appreciation

Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. SATC has a current Value of $1.79 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $2.80 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.

RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. SATC has an RV of 1.12, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.

RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. SATC has an RS rating of 0.80, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.

RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. SATC has a Relative Timing rating of 0.33, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.  RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.

VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. SATC has a VST rating of 0.78, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.

Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. SATC has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.

Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position.  SATC has a Stop of $3.09 per share. This is $0.29 above below SATC's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.

GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. SATC has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 32.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, as shown weekly in our investment climate report.

EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. SATC has a forecasted EPS of $0.11 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.

P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. SATC has a P/E of 25.45. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 49.75. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.

EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. SATC has an EY of 3.93 percent. This is above the current average of 2.01% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).

GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. SATC has a GPE rating of 1.26. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 3.63%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.13. Therefore, SATC may be considered to be overvalued.

Dividend Information

DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. SATC does not pay a dividend.

DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. SATC does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.

DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. SATC does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.

DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. SATC does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .

YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. SATC does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating which is . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for somewhat below current income and long-term growth.

Price-Volume Data

Price: SATC closed on Thursday, May 12, 2011 at $2.80 per share.

Open:SATC opened trading at a price of $2.76 per share on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

High: SATC traded at a High price of $2.80 per share on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

Low: SATC traded at a Low price of $2.65 per share on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

Close: SATC closed on Thursday, May 12, 2011 at $2.80 per share. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)

Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. SATC traded with a range of $0.15 per share on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

$ Change: SATC unchanged from the prior day's closing Price.

%PRC: SATC's Price changed 0.00% from the prior day's closing price.

Volume: SATC traded 1,186,407 shares on Thursday, May 12, 2011.

AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. SATC has an AvgVol of 3,522,875 shares traded per day.

%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. SATC had a %Vol of -66.32% on Thursday, May 12, 2011

CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines.SATC has a CI rating of 0.94, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.

Sales / Market Capitalization Information

Sales: SATC has annual sales of 173,000,000

Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. SATC has a Sales Growth of 238.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.

Sales Per Share (SPS): SATC has annual sales of $1.46 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): SATC has a P/S of 1.92. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.

Shares: SATC has 118,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.

Market Capitalization: SATC has a Market Capitalization of 332,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.

Business Sector: SATC has been assigned to the Electronic Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.

Industry Group: SATC has been assigned to the Electrical (Equipment) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.