Aixtron purpose of this thread

My Q1/2023 estimate of sales is 152m based on past order intake and push out of sales from Q4/22 due to export license issues.  Current analysts Q1/23 estimate is 122m.    

Hi CWL1,

https://graphene-flagship.eu/graphene/news/...ompound-semiconductors/

Have you seen this? Sounds to me liek Aixtron is still actively following and researching this opportnuity.

Thanks for your vision on Q4, FY 2022 and Q1 order intake and revenue.

BR
baggo-mh

 

These are part of the 2D materials for the future electronics.  FYI Michael Heuken, VP of R&D at Aixtron and a professor, gave a talk on Aixtron's MOCVD technology including the 2D materials at the 50 minute mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiz9hEVmZmc  

ams OSRAM qualifiziert AIXTRONs G5+ C- und G10-AsP-Anlagen auf 200mm-Wafern für MicroLED-Anwendungen

Premstätten, Österreich, München, Deutschland und Herzogenrath, Deutschland (7. Februar 2023) -- ams OSRAM (SIX: AMS), ein weltweit führender Anbieter von optischen Lösungen, und AIXTRON SE (FSE: AIXA), ein führender Anbieter von Depositionsanlagen für die Halbleiterindustrie, gaben heute bekannt, dass ams OSRAM die AIXTRON-AIX-G5+ C- und G10-AsP-MOCVD-Anlagen auf 200-mm-Wafern für eine MicroLED-Anwendung qualifiziert hat.

inanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2023-02/58245025-eqs-news-ams-osr­am-ag-ams-osram-qualifiziert-aixtrons-g5-c-und-g10-asp-anlagen-au­f-200mm-wafern-fuer-microled-anwendungen-022.htm

Gruß BigGeld  

[url]https://www.aixtron.com/de/presse/presseinformationen/AIXTRON%2520SE%2520ams%2520OSRAM%2520qualifiziert%2520AIXTRONs%2520G5%2B%2520C-%2520und%2520G10-AsP-Anlagen%2520auf%2520200mm-Wafern%2520f%C3%BCr%2520Micro%2520LED-Anwendungen_n2237[/url]

Big news, denn AMS Osram investiert $850 Millionen in den Ausbau des Werks in Kulim. Nicht alles wird bei Aixtron landen aber ein größerer Anteil sicherlich.Produktionsstart 2024. [url]https://www.microled-info.com/ams-osram-we-are-clearly-leading-microleds-start-8-inch-production-2024[/url]

The future is bright......and the best is yet to come!

Gruß
 baggo-mh

 

During the Q3 call I had the impression that Felix stopped short of saying.....

it depends on when we book the orders
My interpretation goes as follows.

When a new fab is build (like Ensdorf), there will be a schedule as to when what should be accomplished. 
- groundbreaking 07/2023
- fab housing completed 06/2024
- first tools to arrive end 2024
- tool qualification by end 2025
- mass tool shipments in early 2026
- mass production in 2027 

If AMS-Osram wants to be operational with Micro LED in 2024, the tools need to ship in 2023. With that and 9 months lead time in mind it becomes clear to me that AMS has given Aixtron what I call a blanket purchase order. For example: We will need 100 G10 tools to reach full utilisation by 2024 on the condition that the qualification will be successfully completed.

That blanket purchase order will be accompanied with a shipping plan. For example, 10,50,20,20 tools per quarter in 2023.

Against that shipping plan release orders will be placed by AMS, with advance payments and the import liscence documents. 
 
It would give Aixtron the possibility to adjust the order intake on a per quarter level and explain what Felix almost said.

BR
 baggo-mh
   

 

very, very interesting presentation for those you are interested in the MOCVD technology.

I learnt a few new things although some (if not to say a lot of the physic laws) went also straight over my head. Schrödingers law for example. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiz9hEVmZmc

BR
 baggo-mh

 

Both AMS (Osram) and Ennostar (Epistar) will be the microLED suppliers of Apple with AMS taking the lead first.  That would mean two volume manufacturers of microLED purchasing Aixtron's tools in 2023.
--------------------------------------------------
Apple's introduction of Micro LED next year Ennostar will cut into the supply chain
Juheng.com reporter Zhang Boxiang Taipei2023/01/30 03:24

The South Korean media The Elec recently quoted market research DSCC as reporting that Apple ( AAPL-US ) Apple Watch?s initial supplier of Micro LED chips is Osram, while Ennostar( 3714-TW )?s Epistar will enter the supply chain, and TSMC ( 2330-TW ) It will assist driver IC manufacture.

Ennostar does not comment on a single customer, but the company said that it is currently in a leading position in the Micro LED market, and has the opportunity to become a part of more market new applications. In the future, the development of Micro LED will first lay out small-sized AR/VR and wearable devices, and then Attack TV/outdoor screens, and finally develop towards car panels and HUDs.

Apple aims to introduce 2.1-inch MicroLED panels into the Apple Watch Ultra high-end series products as soon as the end of next year, replacing the current OLED panels.

Ennostar expects that the Micro LED market will become increasingly mature in 2024, which will drive the active development of the supply chain. The company is also actively preparing for the battle. At present, the layout of Micro LED has entered the second stage. In addition to Unikorn Semiconductor, which has begun to ship a small amount of verification products, it has also announced the establishment of 6-inch factory building, and cooperated with PlayNitride( 6854-TW ) to complete the installation, and it is expected to start mass production in the next year or two.

With the growth of the Micro LED market, Ennostar pointed out that after 2025, further new factories will be built to seize business opportunities; as for the cooperation with PlayNitride, it is currently mainly based on PlayNitride?s past production experience in high-end chips to jointly build a production line In the future, PlayNitride will focus on mass transfer, and Ennostar will focus on high-capitalization die production.  

Graphene used to grow the world's smallest microLEDs and highest-density microLED arrays
Researchers from MIT, in collaboration with researchers from other Universities in the US and Korea, have used graphene (and hBN) to develop full-color vertically-stacked microLEDs  - that achieve the highest array density (5100 PPI) and the smallest size (4 µm) reported to date. 

The researchers developed a 2D-materials based layer transfer (2DLT) technique - that involves growing the LEDs on 2D material-coated substrates, removing the LEDs, and then sttacking them. For the red LEDs, the researchers used graphene, coated on a GaAs wafer, while for the green and blue LEDs, they used hBN on sapphire wafers. The graphene red LEDs were transferred using remote epitaxy, while the hBN blue and green ones were removed using Van der Waals epitaxy.

Zum Glück weiss ich seit dem Video heute, dass Aixtron diese Laboraktivitäten auch unterstützt und untersucht.

https://www.graphene-info.com/...croleds-and-highest-density-microled


Gruß
 
 baggo-mh

 

read post #1396 about Onsemi being a customer of Axitron expanding SiC production in Czech.

From the 2/06/23 CC:

"We continue to extend our leadership in silicon carbide with our customers who value the leading performance of our silicon carbide modules and our end-to-end supply chain capabilities. In 2022, we shipped more than $200 million in silicon carbide revenue. We remain on track to deliver $1 billion in 2023 based on committed revenue from LTSAs, and we now have more than $4.5 billion of committed silicon carbide revenue between 2023 and 2025..."

"In automotive, we have seen tremendous momentum with silicon carbide, and we believe that vehicle electrification will be a long-term driver for our business. We expect to remain supply constrained for the next several years even as we aggressively add capacity to our Hudson, Czech Republic and South Korea manufacturing sites..."

"As we indicated previously, we are directing a significant portion of our capital expenditures towards silicon carbide ..."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/...-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript  

https://www.asm.com/Pages/Press-releases/...pid=2590309&from=home

Orders amounted to approximately ?820 million in Q4 2022, above the level that was implied by the guidance for a book-to-bill of a bit above 1 that we mentioned in our press release of November 28, 2022. The upside was predominantly driven by the power/analog/wafer segment, including an exceptionally high order intake in our silicon carbide epitaxy business (LPE). Next to strong underlying demand, the increase in LPE?s orders was driven by some customers bringing forward orders that are scheduled for shipment in the latter part of 2023.

 

https://www.saechsische.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/...rik-5822317.html  

According to estimates from Yole and Veeco
 

From the Q3/2022 CC, Felix Grawert - AIXTRON

First, regarding the silicon carbide market share. Having looked at the most recent
data, I believe we have a good chance next year of approaching somewhere
around 50% market share in silicon carbide. It remains to be seen whether we are
slightly below or slightly above this number. We clearly make very good progress in
silicon carbide, to give you a rough indication.  

Hi all,

its the season again!

Q4 results and 2023 Guidance are due next week on Tuesday (28.) , so lets have a look at what the market is expecting:

Q4: Unfortunately I have no order number (which is the most important), but consensus expects sales of 196m, +8.5% yoy and 61m EBIT, 31% margin. This leaves FY-22 sales of 476m and 108.6m EBIT, EBIT margin of 22.8% vs. guidance 22-24% and sales guidance 450-500m. I think Aixtron will deliver against these expectations.

More important however is the guidance and this is where i am personally  a bit scepitcal this time (and I think why the stock has come down recently). Consensus expects sales of 577m, +21% vs, 476m and 148m EBIT, 25.6% margin.
Key for these achieving these expectations will obviously be the order backlog as of Q4-22 as well as the order intake assumption for H1-23.

Given that Aixtron has historically guided conservatively with Q4 and then raised guidance during the year in the past years, i am a bit sceptical if they already guide for 21% revenue growth; especially after "only" delivering around +11% in 2022.
In terms of end-markets it will have to be SIC and MicroLed to achieve these strong growth numbers. ROY LED is clearly slowing (i think), GAN will probably have some further growth but how strong and from what level? So focus needs to be on SIC and MicroLED. Capacity expansion in SIC and new capacity in MicroLed; in MicroLed we know of a lead customer willing to start a consumer product and these machines need to be ordered, but will that lead to mass production volumes that carry into 2024/25 - too early to say.

SIC demand is clearly there and strong, again the question is timing and size of the demand.

My concern is if these uncertainties provide enough visibility to go out with a bullish guidance? I dont know and that is why i am sceptical - I might be wrong, I acknowledge that very well.

So very keen to see the guidance and order intake/backlog in Q4 and then hear the comments during the conference call. It could be a typical Aixtron day with some volatility but could offer great opportunity as well.

Looking forward to our great collaboration here in the Forum on the day and best of luck to all!
Fel

 

Hi fel,

thank you very much for your thoughts and as usual diligent analysis ? much appreciated! Given the perfect summary, there is not much that I can contribute, maybe with one exeception: IMO there is a wildcard this time given the issue with the export licences. If this effect results in an approx. EUR 20m revenue shift from 2022 into 2023, this might indeed support a more bullish 2023 revenue guidance from the management. In numbers:

?Reported? as per your consensus numbers:
2021: 429m
2022e: 476m (+11%)
2023e: 577m (+21%)

?Adjusted? for export licences:
2021: 429m
2022e: 496m (+16%)
2023e: 557m (+12%)

In other words: taking into account the potential EUR 20m impact, the growth rates of +16% in 2022e and +12% in 2023e do look somewhat plausible. Nevertheless I agree with your expectation that the management might be again too conservative with their 2023 guidance which might not be perceived well by the market. Thus, while it is tempting to add-on at a EUR 25 share price level, I will wait until the earnings date.  

Hi CWL1,


I was asked to ask you if you know that company?https://www.thelec.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=19620

Thanks for your feedback.

Kind ergards
baggo-mh

 

Hi,

Sorry I know very little about this company.  

Best Regards,
CWL
 

Another focus tomorrow will be on MicroLed. The Jefferies analyst - before at Numis (I think) - knows Aixtron and the industry very well and he recently wrote about potential risks for MicroLed being pushed out into 2025. If so, this could further add to growth headwinds in 2023 (thus cautious guidance) and add to volatility in the share price tomorrow.

Link: https://www.finanznachrichten.de/...ies-stuft-aixtron-auf-buy-322.htm

Regards,
Fel  

https://www.eet-china.com/mp/a198173.html  

The first phase of the Micro LED production line of Ennostar will be completed by the end of the year! Next year's 6-inch output will be 5,000 sets

"Ennostar said that the capital expenditure this year (2023) is expected to be NT$6 billion (~$195m) , of which Micro LED will account for NT $2 billion (~$65m) , ROY LED's will account for NT$ 700-1 billion (~$23m-$32m)"

"Regarding the layout of Micro LED, Fan Jinyong predicts that the first phase of Epistar Micro LED production line will be completed by the end of the year, and the investment amount is not too large, and there will be a second phase after that. He estimated that the 6-inch production capacity will be 5,000 sets (monthly) by then, and it will reach 10,000 sets in 2025, and then the third round of investment will be made according to demand."

"Ennostar said that this year the group will build the first Micro LED production line, which also means that Micro LED will enter mass production this year or next year."

"Finally, there are rumors about the Apple Watch market. Chairman Li Bingjie said that at present, American brands are currently cooperating with European suppliers, and Ennosatr has the opportunity to play the role of the second supplier. At present, European suppliers have already deployed Micro LED in advance, and most newspapers and magazines point to mass production in 2025, but considering the verification time, the second supplier may not have the opportunity to join the ranks until 2026."
------------------------------
5000 monthly 6" wafers need about 20 MOCVD's.  

Strong results, much better than I feared.. EBIT 7% above current consensus für 2023. investment case is derisked now and stock will go up.
More later.
Regards,
Fel  

Totally agree - very happy with these numbers! And on top PVA Tepla with a big positive surprise, hurray!  

Thank you.
What a day! Strong results as FEl216 stated already and positive guidance from both PVA Tepla and Aixtron.

I guess we will see PT raises for both in the coming days.

BR
baggo-mh

 

I am increasing the Q1/23 sales estimate to 171m form the previous estimate of 152m (post #1444)