Aixtron purpose of this thread

Super und Danke  

My latest post on 17:07 titled "Samsung, thinking strategically" appeared to be lost.  Not sure if you are in the process of repost or should I post it again?  

I am sorry.

Thought I copied everything over. Could you please re-post as the other forum has been deleted.
Thank you in advance!  

To save Baggo the trouble, repost:

Samsung is such a superpower that everybody fears.  It rescued Tokki (VTE) and later DNP (FMM), and turned them into its private suppliers for OLED.  Tokki and DNP were kept captive by Samsung for years before they were allowed to sell to other OLED companies (Chinese and LG).  This is how Samsung does business with its suppliers, like a monopoly.  As a result, Samsung has had 90% of the marketshare on OLED for years.  Only over the last two years when Samsung gradually loses its grips, intentionally I think, and Canon Tokki was allowed to sell a few VTE machines to Samsung's competitors.

OVPD is a game changer I believe.  It is a much versatile technique for OLED deposition and much closer to a turnkey operation.  Even though the Chinese was able to buy the Tokki machines and the DNP FMM, they are still struggling with yields because the combined process is so complex and difficult to tune. OVPD is the replacement of a 1960 technology (VTE).  These are the words of Aixtron's CTO to me at the AGM.  If they all get hold of the OVPD, Samsung would lose its competitive advantage in OLED.

Samsung would repeat what it did to Tokki and DNP on Aixtron. Samsung would not let the Chinese and LG get hold of Aixtron's OVPD.  This is how Samsung maintains its predominance in OLED, both in small/medium GEN6 OLED (smart phones) and attacking the GEM 8+ TV's.  Its is obvious that Aixtron has been allowed to only let Samsung have any access to its OVPD, for reasons I outlined. Aixtron cannot admit that.  Saying that Aixtron does not have additional resources for another customer is just an excuse.

Knowing all that, how does Aixtron deal with Samsung and negotiate the best price and how can it expand to future OVPD markets require strong efforts and supreme strategy.  The EBIT of 2020 or 2021 would be just small peanuts.  I would think OVPD should be break even in Y1 and profitable ASAP. Samsung cannot let Aixtron get away and Aixtron knows it.  That is why Felix has been so confident and I felt that confidence at the 2019 AGM.
 

Just to be clear:
"OVPD is the replacement of a 1960 technology (VTE)" are the words of Aixtron's CTO to me at the AGM.  
"If they all get hold of the OVPD, Samsung would lose its competitive advantage in OLED" are my own thoughts.  

Herzlichen Dank und einen guten Start ins Wochenende.
Ich werde versuchen Eurem technischen Sachverstand zu folgen.
Gruß
95ole  

* Danke fürs Reinlassen. Rising star(t). 

 

Ein Danke an baggo-mh und ein Hallo (helo, ??) an alle anderen ;-)

Ich bin immer noch "stiller Mitleser" im Aixtron Forum und werde mich melden, wenn ich etwas beitragen kann. Zunächst habe ich nur einen Link zu einem weiteren Standbein von Aixtron.

Can Germany?s Auto Industry Keep Pace?

[...] Germany has a number of semiconductor manufacturing equipment suppliers, led by Aixtron, headquartered in Herzogenrath. There is also Stuttgart-based Exyte, which specializes in building wafer fabs and other high-tech facilities. [...]

Quelle: Semiengineering - IoT, Security & Automotive

 

 

Ich freue mich, das es hier in Zukunft gesitteter zugeht und es nur um Aixtron geht .  Nebenschauplätze sollten über Mail ausgetragen werden.

Auf ein gutes Forum Aixtron

 

The latest BHL upgrade misses one point, IMHO.  We all know the promises of 5G, 3D Sensors, SiC etc.  They have been baked into Aixtron's price, not completely but certainly the shareholders know them well. OVPD is not baked in yet and deserves more attention, and BHL touched upon but no new news.  

The shot up of 1/8's price could be due to the upgrade, short covering, and shareholders buying back after the tax loss selling in Q4 2019.  This so called "January Effect" is well known by many as fel216 has also previously posted.  Aixtron was a perfect candidate for the January Effect.  Those took advantage of it in December 2019 did well I suppose.

I think there might be an additional factor.  Coincidentally, the 2020 CES started in 1/7 is the showcase of mini LED. You could search the internet and read about those exciting new TV's based on mini LED backlights, eg the TV's from TCL.  The LED companies are fighting OLED with mini LED backlights and they have no reservation because they are fighting for their lives.  From mini to micro led is the path as we know. As an example, AMTC is to invest 128m euros to build a new ROY mini/micro LED plant in 2020 starting production in October 2020.  That means ordering 30-50 MOCVD's in phase I as I previously estimated in the main board.

So what is the missing point?  Mini LED me think.  Investors begin to realize that the good old G4 for ROY LED business of might do just fine in 2020, on top of the "hot items" we've been talking about.
 

Epistar partners with Leyard to showcase RGB mini LED fine-pitch displays at CES 2020
Siu Han, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES Thursday 9 January 2020

Taiwan-based LED epitaxial wafer and chip maker Epistar has partnered with China-based LED display maker Leyard Optoelectronic to exhibit three models of RGB mini LED fine-pitch displays with a pitch of 0.6mm at CES 2020.

The three models are a 216-inch 8K model, and two 4K ones (135- and 108-inch), all to be marketed by Leyard under its own brand Planar. The three models are packaged by Epistar's wholly-owned subsidiary Yenrich Technology.

Demand for large-size LCD TVs is expected to surge in second-quarter 2020 due to the upcoming Tokyo Olympis 2020, and consequently demand for LED backlighting will significantly increase, Epistar said.

To meet the expected increase in demand, ProLight Opto Technology, Epistar's partnering provider of LED packaging services, will double its production capacity by the end of March 2020. Epistar holds a 52% stake in ProLight.

Epistar has reported consolidated revenues of NT$1.351 billion (US$44.9 million) for December, increasing 4.86% sequentially and 13.54% on year; those of NT$4.006 billion for fourth-quarter 2019, decreasing 3.98% sequentially and 5.43% on year; and those of NT$15.960 billion for 2019, dropping 21.48% on year.

Vertically-integrated LED maker Lextar Electronics has reported consolidated revenues of NT$729.9 million for December, growing 13.79% sequentially and 2.06% on year; those of NT$2.082 billion for fourth-quarter 2019, slipping 13.63% sequentially and 13.93% on year; and those of NT$9.055 billion for 2019, declining 18.09% on year.  

I posted the news about AMTC's ROY LED epiwafers plant on Dec 12, 2019.  This is a Jan. 9 update by the Chnia's Jianxii province news.  Zhaoch Semi mentioned is the subsidiary of AMTC:

"Not long ago, Jiangxi Zhaochi Semiconductor Co., Ltd. invested an additional 1 billion yuan in the Nanchang High-tech Zone to build the first-phase production project of red and yellow LED epitaxial wafers and chips. This is the company's another investment in Nanchang High-tech Zone following the R & D and production of blue-green LED epitaxial wafers and chips settled in 10 billion yuan in 2017. According to reports, the project is expected to be officially put into production in August this year, when the annual output will reach 600,000 4 inch red and yellow light epitaxial wafers and supporting chip production capacity, the packaged products are mainly used in general lighting, backlight display and other fields. After the full production of this year's equipment, the company's blue-green LED epitaxial wafer and chip projects are expected to reach an annual output of 6 million 4-inch epitaxial wafers and their supporting chips. It is expected that the company's annual output value will reach 6 billion yuan."

http://www.nchdz.com/id_4028b2706f881099016f8844db680012/news.shtml

 

We all are quite convinced that SD will place OVPD order about pilot line in the next months. What are the chances then that they still will not go for the technology? I guess quite low but not impossible. Possible reason could be that maybe SD is not 100 % convinced of the reliability and then SD decides that they  stay with  proved technology instead betting on the new unproved one. Betting on OVPD would mean also "releasing" the grip on Tokki, that is to say give it free for the competition (following CWL's post). No matter whether my logic is right or wrong the chance is existent that SD says no to OVPD.
What happens then?
To me there are two possible paths for Aix:
1. They sell the technology if we believe that they are not going for other customers
2. They go for other customer.

Which case is more probable? What would be the price for selling the technology? Up to 1B?
If OVPD is such promising technology then I imagine there are enough other customers, especially chinese, which only wait to go for it. Companies willing to enter OLED business don'T have anything to lose. I can imagine they won't be very choosy and won't take another few years to evaluate the technology (keeping in mind that OVPD is good enough for SD at least up to pilot line). They don't bear the risks SD have.
So, I am quite convinced there would be more than enough potential OVPD customers.  So, why would Aixtron sell the technology? It costs them 25 Mio per year. This should not be a reason to sell OVPD if there are high chances for another customer(s) and prospect of a few hundreds mio USD per year for the next decade maybe?!

If this logic is more or less correct then SD will have to have very serious reasons to not take OVPD. But even if not, then Aixtron should still be able to exploit the technology. Reaching this level of qualification with SD means to me only that it is at least nearly as good as the incumbent if not superior.

What are your thoughts on this?  

das die technologie zu einen anderen kunden geht, wird rechtlich nicht so einfach sein. immerhin arbeiten SD ingenieure seit vielen monaten mit an der technologie. zudem kommt noch iruja,  dessen part natürlich nicht so gross sein wird.
somit ergeben sich aber 3 player die alle ihr now how in der entwicklung eingegeben haben. aixtron hat somit in der entwicklung für die marktreife auch rechtsraum für die anderen entwicklungspartner gegeben.
deshalb halte ich ein verkauf der technologie, oder eine abwanderung zu einen anderen kunden als nicht machbar.
Ich sehe nur ein no oder go.  
wahrscheinlich werden wir das in den nächsten wochen erfahren.
 

in der Quali als Core-Entwicklung sehen?! Sollten SD Beiträge so wichtig gewesen sein, sind dann sicherlich patente entstanden. Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen , dass einen gewissen IP Merge stattgefunden hat.
Ich glaube auch nicht , dass OVPD einfach begraben wird, wenn man das unter Einstellen des Projektes versteht. So viel know how und Geld für die Katze?!
Eben das würde mich interessieren: wie profitiert Aix von all dem, falls mit SD niy wird. Einfach OVPD zum Werthof bringen glaube ich nicht  

sollte das ovpd projekt für SD nix sein wird es eingestellt und die entwicklungs kosten sind für die katz. das wäre ja nicht das erste mal bei neu entwicklungen.
so wurde es auch seitens aixtron kommuniziert. allerdings bezog sich die aussage von ferbruar 2019 auf sommer 2019.
eine weitere aussage war,  wir haben eine deadline oder ziellinie. dieser kommen wir jetzt näher.
laut cwl1 text,  aixtron steht in den startlöchern und kann produzieren.  daraus entnehme ich, das die entwicklungs arbeit abgeschlossen ist und SD sich entscheiden wird.
wenn die entwicklungs arbeit abgeschlossen ist, dann ist sie von beiden seiten abgeschlossen,  aixtron sowie SD Ingenieure.
ja natürlich wird es patente auf verschiedene entwicklungen geben die stattgefunden haben.
ich denke der einfachste weg ist, sich die aussagen von aixtron durch zu lesen.
in der summe sehe ich aber ein gemeinschafts projekt wo der eine nicht ohne den anderen kann.
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoHh7ZwdvKo

https://www.oled-a.org/musing-on-ces_11020.html

Since the demo QD-OLED TV's are 65", the screens are not OVPD.    

JSR develops quantum dot ink for Samsung Quantum Dot Display
By Lee Jong-joon Approval 2020.01.12 17:58

Competitive with Samsung SDI until the second half of this year

It was confirmed on January 10 that Japanese material company JSR is developing quantum dot ink for supplying Samsung quantum dot display production line. It is expected to compete with Samsung SDI, a Samsung-based subsidiary. A domestic material company official said, "Suppliers will be selected later this year."

Samsung Display began ordering equipment related to the quantum dot display production line at the end of last year. The company plans to finish the equipment setup in the second half of this year and start production lines next year. An inkjet printing process was applied to form a quantum dot light conversion layer for color filters.

Samsung Display will make a quantum dot display by laminating the quantum dot (QD) light conversion layer color filter substrate and the blue OLED substrate.

A photo process is used to raise the color pigment for color filters. Color photoresist (PR) mixed with pigment is applied onto the substrate and left in the desired position through photo process such as exposure, development and cleaning. The oven is then heated and hardened. JSR and Samsung SDI are both color photoresist producers.

Quantum dot display manufacturing uses a color filter with an additional quantum dot light conversion layer. Quantum Dot's light emitting (PL) technology is applied. Each of the red and green quantum dots receives light from the blue OLED and emits red and green with high color purity. Increasing the color purity of individual pixels widens the entire color gamut of the display.  

The quantum dot light conversion layer is formed using an inkjet printing process rather than a photo process. Quantum dot ink is dropped on each color filter and then cured with ultraviolet (UV) light. Quantum Dot is developed by Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology and mass produced by Hansol Chemical. Quantum dot ink makers take quantum dots and turn them into inks.

Samsung SDI said it is developing QD ink at the 3Q earnings conference call. At the time, Kim Kyung-hoon, executive director of Samsung SDI's Electronic Materials Division, said, "We are developing QD ink, anti-reflective film and low refractive material for QD-OLED TV." Kim described quantum dot display as 'QD-OLED'.

Samsung Display is said to have exhibited 65-inch quantum dot display in a private booth during CES2020 at the US Electronics Show. An official from Samsung Display said, "It is another thing to make a product in a mass production facility, but there is no problem in quantum dot display at the current R & D facility."

http://www.thelec.kr/news/...00&replyAll=&reply_sc_order_by=I

 

the development of QD-OLED TVs is real

Like every year Nanosys was present at the CES in Las Vegas to show all the latest developments regarding the Quantum Dot . Nanosys is the company that currently supplies Quantum Dot materials to all manufacturers , directly or through licensing. Jason Hartlove , president and CEO, spoke in particular of the QD-OLED , the technology that combines OLED and Quantum Dot recently at the center of various rumors related especially to Samsung .

Hartlove said that QD-OLED TVs will arrive . The words used are unequivocal: " I can say for sure it's happening " ( I can say with certainty that it is really happening ). The CEO also mentioned the signing of the document with which Samsung, in the presence of South Korean President Moon Jae-in , has committed to investing 11 billion dollars . The Korean giant is also one of the main investors of Nanosys and the latter is closely involved in the project . Hartlove said he saw the latest versions of the QD-OLEDs and praised their image quality.

QD-OLED panels use a pixel structure made up of blue OLED . The organic components are therefore all the same and retain the same characteristics as the WRGB TVs. The pixels can therefore be turned off to obtain absolute black and a high dynamic range. The organic components are associated with the QDCC ( Quantum Dot Color Conversion , contains red and green Quantum Dot), deposited directly above each pixel through an ink-jet printing process(like the one you want to use for RGB OLEDs). The QDCC converts the light from the blue OLEDs by absorbing and re-emitting it in a purer form for the red and green components. Blue is simply allowed to pass. In this way all the three primary chromatic components (RGB) are obtained.

Hartlove believes that QD-OLEDs will not present problems related to the aging of organic components. There are various ways to get around these issues. For example, multiple layers of OLED emitters can be made (instead of just one) to reduce the stress associated with each of them. Compensation circuits can also be used, a tool which is already present in OLED TVs that we find on the market.

There remains only one question that, for the moment, we cannot answer: when will we see the first QD-OLED TVs? According to various sources that have expressed themselves over the past few months (in response to increasingly insistent rumors), it will still take time and there are those who go as far as to believe that it will take years before seeing specimens ready for sale. Much will also depend on the evolution of the market and that of other technologies, such as MicroLEDs.

https://www.hdblog.it/samsung/articoli/n515258/...onferma-tv-qd-oled/  

How come no rumors about OVPD and SD reach the media?!
This is somehow weird.

What do you deduce about the project based on your posts? Well, yes, the QD-OLED cannot be on OVPD due to the big size. So, does SD present QD-OLED behind closed doors only to show they are working on this but the technology will not be what the selected customers see?  

einigermaßen üerbzeugt, was der Beitrag von SD angeht. Angesichts der Jahre und der mehreren Quali-Phasen dürfte der Beitag SDs schon beachtlich sein.
Nichtsdestotrotz, es fällt mir schwer zu glauben, dass die das einfach so begraben.

Es ist mir auch unklr, wie die Sache mit dem Lizenz (war das UDC?) steht. Eignetlich können sie ja die Technologie gar nicht verkaufen, da sie nur lizensiert ist. Hm, habe ich vielelicht nur Quatsch geredet?! :s  

I don't have answers. Just have to wait probably till the next CC. Samsung has issued purchase orders to 14 Korean companies, neither Aixtron nor Canon Tokki is on the list.    

on QD-OLED. Obviously wrong:
https://www.oled-info.com/...rinted-31-fhd-rollable-hybrid-qd-oled-tv  

The way I understood the Samsung news was that there will be 2 differently sized lines in 2 different sites. The first one a conversion of an existing LCD Gen 8 plant. For this one they are currently ordering machinery.

The second plant is scheduled to start production in 2022 (1 year later) with a panel size of 10 or 10.5.

OVPD
If we see an order from Samsung in the coming months, it will be for a pre-production tool to demonstarte scalability. In that context it is not surprising to me that Aixtron and OVPD is not mentioned when current machinery for the conversion of plant 1 (Gen 8) is being ordered.

In my opinion too OVPD is do or die with Samsung. Fel has outined that it will be positive in any case, short term if it is stopped (25 million savings to the bottom line) or long term is the pre-production tool is ordered and much better if we see production orders worth XXX millions. 

Agree with CWL1 assesment and would like to add 2 points of my own.
1.) Currently the OVPD Gen 2 system is being altered to accomodate Samsung's requests. 
2.) Would any Chinese (or other nationality) company be interetsed in a technology that Samsung has not qualified, when Samsung was involed in "designing" the equipment, and when you want to compete with them?

I my opinion not.

Regards
 baggo-mh
 

 

Oddo just upgraded Aixtron to Buy with a 12 Euro price target. They downgraded the stock on 10 July last year at a share price of <8 Euro.